Prabowo Subianto’s Bold Foreign Policy Shapes Indonesia’s Global Role

In the first 100 days of his presidency, Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto has embarked on an ambitious journey to redefine the country’s position on the global stage. With 10 state visits under his belt since his inauguration in October 2024, the former army general has signalled a departure from the more reserved international approach of his predecessor, Joko Widodo (Jokowi). From Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, Prabowo’s diplomatic engagements reflect a blend of nationalist ideology and a keen interest in geopolitics, positioning Indonesia as a more assertive player in international affairs.

His recent visit to Malaysia on 9 January 2025, where he was pictured gesturing to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim at Kuala Lumpur International Airport before boarding a flight back to Jakarta, encapsulates this proactive stance. The meeting, focused on bilateral and regional issues, is just one of many steps in a broader strategy to elevate Indonesia’s global standing. But as Prabowo charts this bold course, questions linger over the implications of his decisions—ranging from Indonesia’s new BRICS membership to controversial agreements in the South China Sea—and whether his intuitive style can balance economic ambitions with geopolitical sensitivities.

A Foreign Policy President Emerges

Prabowo’s early presidency has been marked by a flurry of international activity. In just three months, he has visited major global powers including China, the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, and India. This whirlwind of diplomacy began even before his official swearing-in, with pre-inauguration tours across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East following his election victory in February 2024. Analysts interpret these moves as a deliberate effort to establish an international presence and signal that Indonesia, under Prabowo, will not shy away from the global spotlight.

“There was a promise of continuity on the domestic political front, but it’s clear that Prabowo is no Jokowi on the international stage,” notes Dafri Agussalim, an international relations expert at Gadjah Mada University. Unlike Jokowi, whose foreign policy often prioritised measurable outcomes like trade deals, Prabowo appears driven by a vision of Indonesia as a self-sufficient, respected, and well-networked nation. This vision, rooted in nationalist ideals, shapes a diplomacy that seeks to project strength and independence.

Prabowo’s appointment of Sugiono, a key ally from his Gerindra Party, as Foreign Minister further underscores his intent to personalise Indonesia’s foreign policy. Breaking from the tradition of appointing career diplomats to the role, Prabowo dispatched Sugiono to a BRICS summit in Russia immediately after his inauguration, setting the tone for a more assertive stance. Sugiono’s first annual speech in January 2025 outlined an ambition to practice “anticipatory, progressive, and visionary” diplomacy, aligning with Prabowo’s goal of positioning Indonesia as a “great nation” on the global stage.

BRICS Membership: A Strategic Gamble?

One of Prabowo’s most significant foreign policy moves has been Indonesia’s full membership in BRICS, the economic grouping comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, announced by Brazil in early January 2025. This decision marks a stark contrast to the cautious approach of Jokowi’s administration, which had long hesitated to commit to the bloc. The Foreign Ministry has framed the move as a manifestation of Indonesia’s “free and active” policy—a non-aligned stance that prioritises national interests over alignment with any single power bloc—and as a means to secure economic benefits.

However, the decision has sparked concerns about potential repercussions, particularly with the United States under President Donald Trump’s second term. While the ministry has reiterated that membership is driven by economic incentives rather than geopolitical alignment, some analysts worry that it could strain relations with Western partners. If tensions escalate, Indonesia may find itself navigating a delicate balancing act between economic partnerships and maintaining its non-aligned status. The long-term impacts remain speculative, with no confirmed evidence of immediate fallout, but the move undeniably signals Prabowo’s willingness to take calculated risks in pursuit of a bolder foreign policy.

South China Sea Controversy: A Risky Play

Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising of Prabowo’s diplomatic engagements has been his approach to the South China Sea, a region fraught with territorial disputes. During a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in November 2024, Prabowo agreed to a joint statement on cooperative development in “disputed” areas of the South China Sea. The phrasing of the statement appeared to nod to Beijing’s claims, which are widely contested under international law, prompting a diplomatic uproar in Jakarta.

The Indonesian government quickly issued clarifications, emphasising that its position on the South China Sea remains unchanged. Yet, as Yose Rizal Damuri, executive director of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), points out, the agreement reflects Prabowo’s strategy of leveraging Indonesia’s natural resources to secure economic benefits from China while navigating complex geopolitical waters. “It’s clearly his way of dealing with Beijing, but it’s impossible to ignore other crucial geopolitical contexts,” Damuri cautions, urging greater sensitivity to such issues.

If mishandled, this move could complicate Indonesia’s relations with other South China Sea claimants, including Vietnam and the Philippines, and undermine its role as a neutral mediator in regional disputes. While there is no evidence to suggest immediate diplomatic fallout, the episode highlights the potential pitfalls of Prabowo’s intuitive, solo-player approach to foreign policy. Analysts hope he will integrate the institutional expertise of the Foreign Ministry to avoid similar missteps in the future.

Nationalism Meets Global Ambition

At the heart of Prabowo’s foreign policy lies a deep-seated nationalist ideology. Unlike Jokowi, who often measured diplomatic success through trade figures and export growth, Prabowo views Indonesia’s resource wealth as a foundation for self-sufficiency and international respect. This perspective has driven his high-profile engagements and willingness to engage with controversial partners, but it also raises questions about the sustainability of his approach.

“Prabowo is highly interested in geopolitics, and his foreign policy is reflective of his vision of what Indonesia ought to be seen as,” Dafri Agussalim explains. Yet, this vision sometimes appears to prioritise symbolic wins over pragmatic outcomes. His frequent travels and bold statements project confidence, but they also risk overextending Indonesia’s diplomatic resources or alienating key partners if not carefully managed.

For instance, while Prabowo’s engagement with China may yield short-term economic gains, it could complicate Indonesia’s broader regional strategy if perceived as too conciliatory. Similarly, his push for BRICS membership, while a statement of intent to champion Global South cooperation, may require careful navigation to avoid being caught in the crosshairs of great power rivalries. These speculative risks remain unconfirmed, but they underscore the need for a balanced approach that tempers nationalist zeal with strategic foresight.

Looking Ahead: Continuity or Change?

As Prabowo looks set to maintain his high level of international engagement through 2025, the question remains whether his foreign policy will evolve into a coherent strategy or remain a series of bold, intuitive moves. His early presidency suggests a clear intent to differentiate himself from Jokowi, prioritising Indonesia’s global stature over domestic-focused diplomacy. Yet, the challenges of balancing economic interests, regional stability, and geopolitical neutrality loom large.

For now, Prabowo’s actions resonate with a domestic audience eager for a leader who champions Indonesia’s pride and potential on the world stage. His populist promises to spur the economy and eradicate hunger, central to his 2024 election campaign, are being woven into a foreign policy that seeks to secure resources and partnerships abroad. Whether this translates into tangible benefits for Indonesians remains to be seen, as does the long-term impact of his decisions on Indonesia’s international relationships.

What is clear, however, is that Prabowo Subianto has emerged as a foreign policy president with a distinct vision. From the tarmac of Kuala Lumpur to the negotiating tables of Beijing, his first 100 days have sent a powerful message: Indonesia, under his leadership, intends to be a force to be reckoned with. As he continues to shape this narrative, the world watches to see if his bold diplomacy will cement Indonesia’s place as a global player—or expose the limits of a soloist approach in an interconnected world.