Tensions Rise as Philippine Coast Guard Confronts Chinese Vessels in West Philippine Sea

The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) has intensified its response to what it describes as the “illegal presence” of two China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), an area within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). On 2 February 2025, a PCG aircraft identified the Chinese ships, marked with bow numbers 3301 and 3104, approximately 34 nautical miles off the coast of Pangasinan. The CCG vessels reportedly failed to respond to radio challenges issued by the PCG, escalating tensions in a region long disputed between Manila and Beijing.

In response, the PCG dispatched two 44-metre vessels, BRP Cabra (MRRV-4409) and BRP Bagacay (MRRV-4410), to Bolinao, Pangasinan, to address the situation. According to Commodore Jay Tarriela, PCG spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, the Philippine vessels reiterated the government’s stance against the “normalisation of illegal patrols” by Chinese forces within the country’s EEZ. This latest encounter underscores the ongoing friction in the South China Sea, where Beijing asserts sweeping claims over nearly the entire maritime region, despite a 2016 arbitral ruling that dismissed these claims in favour of the Philippines.

A Persistent Standoff

The incident off Pangasinan is the latest in a series of confrontations between Philippine and Chinese maritime forces in the West Philippine Sea, a resource-rich area vital for fishing, trade routes, and potential energy reserves. The PCG’s deployment of vessels and aircraft to monitor and challenge the CCG reflects Manila’s growing resolve to assert its sovereign rights, even as it navigates a delicate balance with its powerful neighbour.

On the morning of 2 February, at approximately 9:30 AM, the PCG aircraft confirmed the presence of the two CCG vessels through its dark vessel detection programme, a system designed to track ships that may not broadcast their location. The lack of response to radio challenges from the Chinese side has raised concerns about the potential for miscommunication or escalation in these contested waters. While no direct confrontation was reported at the time, the PCG’s decision to deploy two vessels indicates a readiness to physically assert its presence.

Commodore Tarriela emphasised that the Philippine government views the CCG’s actions as a violation of international maritime law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), under which the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling was made. That landmark decision invalidated China’s expansive “nine-dash line” claim over the South China Sea, affirming the Philippines’ rights to key areas within its 200-nautical-mile EEZ, including parts of the West Philippine Sea. Beijing, however, has consistently rejected the ruling, maintaining its patrols and construction of artificial islands in the region.

Broader Geopolitical Context

The South China Sea dispute extends beyond a bilateral issue between the Philippines and China, drawing in other Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, all of whom have overlapping claims in the region. The area is a critical global trade corridor, with an estimated $3.4 trillion in annual trade passing through its waters, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. For the Philippines, the West Philippine Sea is not only a matter of sovereignty but also of economic survival, supporting the livelihoods of thousands of fisherfolk and holding potential for untapped oil and gas reserves.

China’s actions in the region have been a point of contention for years, with accusations of aggressive tactics, including the use of water cannons, floating barriers, and military-grade lasers against Philippine vessels. Manila has repeatedly called for adherence to international law, while also seeking to strengthen alliances with the United States, Japan, and Australia to counterbalance Beijing’s influence. Recent joint military exercises with these allies, including the annual Balikatan drills with the US, signal a more assertive posture under the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has prioritised defending national maritime interests.

At the same time, domestic political pressures in the Philippines complicate the government’s approach. While public sentiment largely supports a firm stance against China—evidenced by widespread frustration over incursions into traditional fishing grounds—there are concerns about the economic repercussions of straining ties with Beijing, a major trading partner and source of infrastructure investment. This delicate balancing act is further complicated by the need to avoid direct military confrontation, given the disparity in naval capabilities between the two nations.

International Reactions and Implications

The international community has taken note of the escalating tensions in the South China Sea, with the United States and its allies repeatedly voicing support for the Philippines’ position. Washington has reaffirmed its commitment to the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with Manila, which obliges the US to assist in the event of an armed attack on Philippine forces, including in the West Philippine Sea. While no such attack has occurred in this instance, the treaty serves as a deterrent against potential Chinese aggression, even as it raises the spectre of broader conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.

Analysts suggest that China’s continued patrols and refusal to acknowledge the 2016 ruling are part of a broader strategy to establish de facto control over disputed areas. Dr. Maria Reyes, a maritime security expert at the University of the Philippines, noted that Beijing’s actions aim to “normalise its presence through persistence, challenging smaller nations like the Philippines to either escalate or concede.” If unchecked, she warned, this could set a precedent for disregarding international law in other contested regions globally.

However, not all perspectives align with confrontation. Some regional commentators argue for a diplomatic resolution through the long-stalled Code of Conduct (CoC) negotiations between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). While progress on the CoC has been slow, proponents believe it could provide a framework for managing disputes and preventing unintended clashes. Critics, however, caution that China’s track record of non-compliance with existing agreements casts doubt on the effectiveness of such measures.

What Lies Ahead?

The immediate future of the West Philippine Sea remains uncertain, with the potential for further encounters between Philippine and Chinese vessels. The PCG’s ongoing operations off Pangasinan signal that Manila is unlikely to back down in the face of what it perceives as unlawful incursions. Yet, the government must also weigh the risks of escalation against the need to protect its sovereign rights and the livelihoods of its citizens.

If confirmed, an increase in Chinese patrols or more aggressive actions—such as blocking Philippine resupply missions to outposts like the Second Thomas Shoal—could prompt a stronger response from Manila and its allies. For now, the situation remains a tense standoff, with both sides testing the limits of maritime diplomacy. As Commodore Tarriela reiterated, the Philippines remains committed to asserting its rights while avoiding actions that could spiral into open conflict.

Beyond the immediate incident, this encounter highlights the broader challenge of maintaining stability in one of the world’s most contested maritime regions. For global observers, the West Philippine Sea serves as a litmus test for the rules-based international order, with implications that extend far beyond Southeast Asia. As tensions simmer, the actions of both the Philippines and China in the coming weeks will likely shape the trajectory of this long-standing dispute, with potential consequences for regional peace and security.

In the meantime, the Filipino fisherfolk and coastal communities of Pangasinan and beyond continue to bear the brunt of this geopolitical chess game, caught between the imperatives of national sovereignty and the realities of an uneven power dynamic. For them, the West Philippine Sea is not just a diplomatic issue but a matter of survival—a reality that no amount of international arbitration can fully address.