Impeachment Threat Looms Over Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte Amid Political Tensions

In a deepening political storm in the Philippines, Vice President Sara Duterte finds herself at the centre of a potential impeachment battle, as allegations of misconduct and controversial behaviour during budget hearings fuel calls for accountability. A progressive group, Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (Bayan), has signalled its intent to file an impeachment complaint when Congress resumes in November, raising critical questions about the future of one of the country’s highest offices. This development, set against a backdrop of public frustration and legislative tension, underscores the fragility of political alliances in a nation with a history of dramatic power shifts.

The controversy surrounding Duterte, daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, erupted during budget deliberations for the Office of the Vice President in August and September 2024. Critics accused her of unprofessional conduct, with some labelling her behaviour as akin to a “spoiled brat.” Duterte, in turn, alleged that lawmakers were secretly plotting her impeachment, claiming to possess recordings of such discussions. These claims have been staunchly denied by key House leaders, including Deputy Speaker David Suarez, who expressed disappointment over her absence from crucial budget hearings while dismissing any talk of impeachment proceedings.

Amid this war of words, Bayan, a left-leaning alliance known for its advocacy on social justice issues, has emerged as a key player. On 26 September 2024, Bayan chairperson Teddy Casiño stated that impeachment might be “necessary” to address alleged misuse of funds by Duterte’s office. While the specifics of the accusations remain under wraps until the formal complaint is filed, the group’s move has intensified scrutiny on the Vice President and reignited debates over the impeachment process in the Philippines.

The Impeachment Process

Under the 1987 Philippine Constitution, impeachment serves as a mechanism to hold high-ranking officials accountable for serious offences. Article XI, Section 2, lists the President, Vice President, Supreme Court Justices, and other key figures as subject to this process. Impeachable offences include culpable violation of the Constitution, treason, bribery, graft and corruption, other high crimes, or betrayal of public trust—a broad spectrum that provides significant leeway for interpretation.

The process itself, detailed in Section 3 of Article XI, is rigorous and multi-staged. It begins with the filing of a verified complaint, either by a member of the House of Representatives or a citizen with a House member’s endorsement. The complaint is then referred to the House Committee on Justice, which evaluates its validity through hearings and investigations. Within 60 session days, the committee submits a report to the full House, which must vote on the articles of impeachment. A one-third majority—currently at least 103 of the 309 House members—is required to advance the case to the Senate. In the Senate, which acts as the impeachment court, a two-thirds majority (16 of 24 senators) is needed to convict and remove the official from office. A conviction also disqualifies the individual from holding future government positions and may lead to further legal prosecution. This high threshold ensures that impeachment is not a tool for mere political vendettas but a serious reckoning for grave misconduct.

If Duterte were to be impeached and removed, the Constitution provides a clear succession path. Under Article VII, Section 9, the President nominates a new Vice President from among members of Congress, subject to confirmation by majority votes in both the House and Senate, voting separately. A historical precedent exists in the 2001 appointment of Teofisto Guingona Jr. as Vice President by then-President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo following the ouster of Joseph Estrada during the EDSA Dos uprising. Arroyo, in a televised address, praised Guingona’s role in the movement against Estrada, highlighting the political calculus often at play in such nominations.

Political Motivations and Public Sentiment

The potential impeachment of Sara Duterte cannot be viewed in isolation from the broader political landscape. As the daughter of Rodrigo Duterte, whose presidency was marked by a controversial war on drugs and a strongman style of governance, Sara carries both the weight of her family’s legacy and the expectations of their political base. Her election as Vice President in 2022 alongside President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was seen as a strategic alliance between two powerful political dynasties. However, cracks in this partnership have become increasingly apparent, with tensions over policy priorities and public posturing hinting at deeper rifts.

Duterte’s allegations of an impeachment plot, though unverified, resonate with a segment of the public wary of political manoeuvring within the halls of Congress. Her absence from budget hearings, while drawing criticism from lawmakers, has also been interpreted by some as a protest against perceived harassment. Yet, her claims of possessing recordings of impeachment discussions have raised eyebrows, with legislators challenging her to name names and provide evidence—a challenge she has yet to meet. Bayan’s involvement adds another layer of complexity. The group, historically critical of both the Duterte and Marcos administrations, frames its push for impeachment as a matter of accountability rather than partisan politics. Allegations of fund misuse, if substantiated, could provide the legal grounding for a complaint. However, the timing—coming just months before Congress resumes—suggests a calculated effort to keep the issue alive in public discourse, potentially galvanising opposition to Duterte’s tenure.

Public sentiment, as reflected in online discussions and local media, appears divided. Supporters of Duterte argue that she is being unfairly targeted by political rivals seeking to undermine her father’s legacy and the current administration’s stability. Critics, meanwhile, point to her conduct and the opacity surrounding her office’s finances as legitimate causes for concern. If the impeachment process moves forward, it could further polarise an already fractious political environment, testing the resilience of democratic institutions in the Philippines.

Outcomes and Implications

The road to impeachment is fraught with uncertainty. Even if Bayan finalises its complaint, securing the necessary one-third vote in the House is no guarantee, particularly given the dominance of pro-administration lawmakers. The Senate, too, presents a formidable barrier, as a two-thirds majority requires broad consensus across political factions—a tall order in a chamber often swayed by alliances and personal loyalties.

If the complaint fails to gain traction, Duterte may emerge politically strengthened, casting herself as a survivor of baseless attacks. Conversely, a successful impeachment would mark a historic moment, being the first removal of a Vice President through this process in the Philippines. It would also shift the balance of power, with President Marcos Jr. tasked with nominating a successor who could either reinforce his administration or introduce new dynamics into an already volatile political arena.

Beyond the immediate implications for Duterte, this episode raises broader questions about the role of impeachment in Philippine democracy. Historically, the process has been invoked during periods of acute crisis, as seen in the trials of Joseph Estrada in 2000-2001 and Chief Justice Renato Corona in 2012. Each instance has tested the boundaries of constitutional authority and public trust in governance. A potential impeachment of Duterte, even if unsuccessful, could set a precedent for how allegations of misconduct are addressed at the highest levels, shaping future accountability mechanisms.

Regional and International Context

The unfolding drama in Manila does not occur in a vacuum. Across South East Asia, political instability and questions of governance remain pressing concerns. In neighbouring Thailand, for instance, constitutional amendments and judicial interventions have frequently altered the political landscape, often with significant public backlash. Similarly, in Indonesia, recent electoral reforms have sparked debates over executive power and accountability. The Philippine case, with its focus on impeachment as a tool for checks and balances, offers a comparative lens through which to view these regional struggles.

Internationally, the potential removal of a sitting Vice President in the Philippines could draw attention from global observers, particularly given the country’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region. The United States, a long-time ally, and China, an increasingly assertive regional player, both have stakes in Philippine stability. A prolonged political crisis could complicate foreign policy priorities, including maritime disputes in the South China Sea and economic partnerships under initiatives like the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

A Nation at a Crossroads

As November approaches, the spectre of impeachment looms large over Sara Duterte and the Philippine political establishment. Whether Bayan’s complaint materialises into a formal process or fizzles out amid legislative resistance remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that this moment encapsulates the enduring tensions between personal political legacies and institutional accountability in the Philippines.

For now, Duterte’s fate hangs in the balance, a symbol of both the promise and peril of democratic governance. If the impeachment push gains momentum, it could redefine the contours of power in Manila, testing the strength of constitutional safeguards and public faith in elected leaders. If it falters, it may still leave an indelible mark on how allegations of misconduct are navigated in the public sphere. Either way, the coming months promise to be a critical chapter in the nation’s ongoing story of democracy under strain.