In the Philippines, the humble grain of rice—long a staple of daily life—has become a symbol of economic strain for millions. A recent survey by Social Weather Stations (SWS), conducted between 17 and 20 January and commissioned by the Stratbase Group, reveals a stark reality: 59% of Filipinos identified rice as the food item that saw the sharpest price increase in the last quarter of 2024. This perception, coupled with widespread dissatisfaction over the government’s efforts to control inflation, paints a troubling picture of an economy where official statistics and lived experiences are at odds.
The Philippine Statistics Authority reported last week that inflation held steady at 2.9% in January 2025, unchanged from December 2024. For the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), this figure signals success—a marker of the government’s commitment to stabilising food prices. Yet, for the majority of Filipinos, particularly in regions like Mindanao and Metro Manila, the numbers fail to reflect the burden felt at the market. The SWS survey found that 58% of respondents viewed the government’s inflation control measures as insufficient, with dissatisfaction peaking at 65% in Mindanao. As Stratbase Institute president Dindo Manhit put it, “Having the majority of the Filipino people say this month that the government’s inflation control solutions are insufficient should be a wake-up call to our leaders.”
A Staple Under Strain
Rice, often referred to as the lifeblood of Filipino cuisine, is more than just food; it is a cultural and economic cornerstone. The Philippines consumes over 15 million tonnes of rice annually, with many households spending a significant portion of their income on this essential commodity. Data from the Department of Agriculture’s Bantay Presyo Monitoring shows that prices for both imported and local commercial rice have fluctuated in recent months but remain high. Between July and October 2024, a kilo of imported rice ranged from P45.35 to P60.34, while local varieties sold for P46.77 to P60.44. By mid-January 2025, prices dipped slightly—imported rice fell to between P42.38 and P57.89 per kilo—but the relief has been marginal for most consumers. 
The SWS survey highlights that rice isn’t the only concern. A quarter of respondents pointed to meat products like chicken, pork, and beef as having risen sharply in price, while 11% cited vegetables and 4% seafood. These increases compound the challenges faced by low- and middle-income families, for whom food constitutes a large share of household expenditure. In a country where nearly a fifth of the population lives below the poverty line, even small price hikes can have outsized impacts.
Public Trust on the Decline
The disconnect between official inflation figures and public sentiment is striking. Only 16% of survey respondents felt the government’s measures to curb inflation were sufficient, while 19% remained neutral. The regional disparities are telling—Mindanao, often grappling with higher transport costs and limited access to markets, reported the highest dissatisfaction at 65%, followed closely by Metro Manila at 60%. These figures suggest a deepening erosion of trust in the government’s economic stewardship, a concern echoed by Manhit, who warned that such sentiment is “the reason why the public’s trust in the government is continuously declining.”
This dissatisfaction comes at a time when the Philippines is navigating broader economic challenges. While the steady inflation rate of 2.9% falls within the central bank’s target range of 2-4%, it masks underlying pressures on specific goods like rice, which disproportionately affect the poor. Economists note that headline inflation—a broad measure of price changes across a basket of goods and services—often fails to capture the acute pain points felt by ordinary citizens. For many Filipinos, the price of rice or a kilo of pork is a more immediate gauge of economic health than any government statistic.
Government Response and Policy Challenges
The government has not been idle in addressing food price volatility. Measures such as tariff reductions on imported rice, introduced under the Rice Tariffication Law of 2019, aimed to stabilise supply and lower costs by liberalising imports. Additionally, the Department of Agriculture has ramped up support for local farmers through subsidies and irrigation projects to boost domestic production. NEDA has touted the steady inflation rate as evidence of these policies bearing fruit.
Yet, critics argue that these interventions have been slow to trickle down to consumers. Import dependency—around 20% of the country’s rice supply comes from abroad, primarily Vietnam and Thailand—leaves the Philippines vulnerable to global price shocks and currency fluctuations. Domestically, inefficiencies in supply chains, from farm to market, exacerbate costs. Typhoons and other climate-related disruptions, a perennial challenge in this archipelago nation, further strain agricultural output, particularly in rice-producing regions like Central Luzon and the Cagayan Valley.
There is also the question of accessibility. While prices may have dipped slightly in early 2025, as per the Department of Agriculture’s data, the benefits are unevenly felt. Urban centres like Manila may see more competitive pricing due to better market access, but rural areas, especially in conflict-prone Mindanao, often face higher costs due to logistical hurdles. This disparity fuels the perception that government solutions are out of touch with ground realities.
Broader Economic Implications
The rising cost of food, particularly rice, extends beyond household budgets—it has political and social ramifications. Food inflation has historically been a flashpoint in the Philippines, where economic grievances can quickly translate into public unrest. The SWS survey’s findings suggest that the current discontent could pose challenges for the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has prioritised agricultural reform and food security as key pillars of his economic agenda.
If left unaddressed, dissatisfaction over food prices may erode political capital ahead of future elections. Analysts point to the 2022 election, where economic concerns, including post-pandemic inflation, played a significant role in shaping voter sentiment. With midterm elections looming in 2025, the government faces pressure to demonstrate tangible results. “The administration cannot afford to ignore these survey results,” said a Manila-based political analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Food prices are a visceral issue—people feel them every day.”
Moreover, the ripple effects of food inflation touch other sectors. Rising costs for essentials like rice and meat force families to cut back on discretionary spending, dampening demand for non-essential goods and services. This, in turn, could slow broader economic recovery, especially as the Philippines seeks to sustain growth rates above 6% annually to meet development targets.
Looking Ahead: Solutions and Speculations
Addressing the rice price crisis will require a multi-pronged approach. Short-term relief could come from further tariff adjustments or emergency imports to bolster supply, though such measures risk alienating local farmers who already struggle to compete with cheaper foreign rice. Long-term, investments in agricultural infrastructure—better irrigation, modern farming techniques, and climate-resilient crops—are critical to reducing reliance on imports and stabilising domestic prices.
There is also a need for more granular data to bridge the gap between official statistics and public perception. If inflation metrics were weighted more heavily towards food prices, or if regional variations were better accounted for, policymakers might gain a clearer picture of where interventions are most needed. While NEDA’s optimism about the steady 2.9% inflation rate is understandable, it must be tempered with an acknowledgement of the uneven impacts felt across the country.
Speculatively, if the government fails to act decisively, public discontent could intensify, potentially leading to protests or stronger opposition narratives in the political arena. However, there is no concrete evidence to suggest such outcomes are imminent, and much depends on external factors like global rice prices or domestic weather patterns. For now, the focus remains on whether the administration can translate policy promises into palpable relief at the dinner table.
A Call for Action
For millions of Filipinos, the price of rice is more than an economic indicator—it is a measure of survival. The SWS survey lays bare a critical divide: while the government points to steady inflation as a sign of progress, the majority of citizens feel otherwise. Bridging this gap will require not just policy innovation but a renewed commitment to listening to the public’s lived experiences.
As Dindo Manhit aptly noted, these numbers are a wake-up call. The question is whether Manila will heed it. For now, the burden of rising rice prices continues to weigh heavily on Filipino households, a reminder that economic stability, as seen on paper, often tells only half the story.
