In a testament to their strengthening partnership, Việt Nam and China have achieved unprecedented economic and trade milestones, with bilateral trade turnover surpassing US$260 billion in 2024. This figure, reported by China’s Ministry of Commerce, underscores the deepening ties between the two nations, which have seen consistent growth over the past two decades. As China remains Việt Nam’s largest trading partner, the relationship is poised for further expansion, driven by cross-border infrastructure projects, digital innovation, and green economy initiatives.
The economic synergy between Hanoi and Beijing is not merely a matter of numbers; it reflects a shared commitment to regional integration and mutual benefit within frameworks like the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). With ambitious plans for railway connectivity and emerging cooperation in sectors like e-commerce and renewable energy, the partnership is entering a transformative phase. Yet, as experts caution, the path forward will require careful navigation of policy coordination and equitable growth to sustain this momentum.
A Milestone in Bilateral Trade
According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, bilateral trade between Việt Nam and China reached $260.65 billion in 2024, marking a 13.5% increase from the previous year. China’s exports to Việt Nam, primarily machinery, textiles, and raw materials, accounted for $161.9 billion, while imports, including agricultural products and minerals, stood at $98.8 billion. This trade imbalance, though significant, has not deterred the growth of economic ties, as Việt Nam continues to leverage China as its top market for agricultural exports. 
Among the standout performers in this trade dynamic is Việt Nam’s fresh durian, which has captured the Chinese market since receiving export approval in 2022. In the first ten months of 2024 alone, Việt Nam exported 692,500 tonnes of durian to China, valued at $2.7 billion. Other agricultural products, such as fruits, vegetables, and aquatic products, also saw robust growth, with exports rising by 28.7% and 23.2% respectively from January to November 2024, per statistics from Vietnam Customs.
Investment flows further cement this relationship. China’s direct investment in Việt Nam reached $4.47 billion in 2023, with a cumulative total of $27.82 billion by year-end. During the first eight months of 2024, Chinese investors poured an additional $1.97 billion into the Southeast Asian nation. Notable projects include the Hanoi Metro Line No. 2, constructed by Chinese firms, which has enhanced urban mobility, alongside investments in solar and wind energy initiatives that signal a shift towards sustainable cooperation.
Infrastructure as a Catalyst for Connectivity
A pivotal moment in the Việt Nam-China economic partnership came in December 2024 with the signing of an inter-governmental agreement on a cross-border standard-gauge railway project. This ambitious initiative encompasses three major lines: Lào Cai – Hà Nội – Hải Phòng, Lạng Sơn – Hà Nội, and Móng Cái – Hạ Long – Hải Phòng. These railway corridors are expected to bolster trade logistics and connectivity, facilitating the movement of goods and people across borders.
Experts view this development as a cornerstone of “hard connectivity,” which, alongside “soft connectivity” in areas like market rules and standards, could redefine bilateral economic cooperation. As Yuan Bo, Director of the Institute of Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, noted, such infrastructure projects are set to usher in a new phase of development, creating fresh opportunities for trade and investment. If realised as planned, these railways could significantly reduce transportation costs and enhance supply chain efficiency, though timelines and funding details remain subject to confirmation.
Beyond railways, discussions around smart ports and customs systems highlight a mutual interest in modernising trade infrastructure. These advancements, if implemented effectively, may further streamline cross-border commerce, positioning Việt Nam and China as key players in regional supply chain networks.
Digital and Green Economies: The Next Frontier
While traditional trade and investment remain central to the Việt Nam-China partnership, emerging sectors like the digital and green economies are gaining prominence. Việt Nam’s digital economy, one of the fastest-growing in Southeast Asia, recorded a compound annual growth rate of 16% in 2024, with a total goods value of $36 billion driven by e-commerce and online tourism. This rapid digitalisation presents opportunities for collaboration with China, particularly in areas like cross-border e-commerce, digital transformation, and smart city development.
Yuan Bo emphasised the potential for deeper integration of digital platforms with traditional industries, suggesting that policy coordination and innovative cooperation models could unlock new growth avenues. For instance, joint ventures in artificial intelligence and online tourism could cater to the evolving demands of a tech-savvy consumer base in both countries. However, such initiatives would require robust data-sharing frameworks and regulatory alignment, aspects that remain under discussion.
Parallel to digital advancements, the green economy is emerging as a critical area of cooperation. Việt Nam has prioritised sustainable development through its national green growth strategy, while China brings expertise in clean energy and environmental governance. Within the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 framework, both nations are exploring partnerships in renewable energy, new energy vehicles, and green finance. Projects like Chinese-backed solar and wind farms in Việt Nam serve as early examples of this collaboration, though their long-term impact on local communities and ecosystems warrants close monitoring.
Regional Frameworks and Future Prospects
The broader context of regional economic integration, particularly through the RCEP and the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, provides a conducive environment for Việt Nam and China to expand their partnership. The anticipated upgrade of these frameworks is expected to enhance trade and investment liberalisation, offering a platform for consensus on emerging issues like supply chain connectivity and digital trade rules.
Analysts suggest that the future of Việt Nam-China economic ties will hinge on balancing traditional trade with innovation-driven sectors. While the $260 billion trade turnover is a significant achievement, sustaining double-digit growth will depend on addressing structural challenges, such as trade imbalances and dependency on raw material exports. Diversifying Việt Nam’s export portfolio and fostering value-added industries could help mitigate these risks, though such transitions require time and investment.
Moreover, as cross-border infrastructure projects progress, they could serve as a model for other ASEAN nations, demonstrating the benefits of regional connectivity. Yet, potential hurdles, including geopolitical tensions and differing national priorities, may complicate implementation. Conditional on effective policy coordination, the railway projects and smart customs initiatives could yield substantial economic dividends, though no definitive outcomes can be confirmed at this stage.
Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
Despite the optimistic outlook, the Việt Nam-China economic relationship is not without challenges. The significant trade imbalance, with China’s exports far outpacing imports from Việt Nam, raises questions about long-term sustainability. Additionally, while Chinese investments in infrastructure and energy are welcomed, there is a need for transparency to ensure that local communities benefit equitably from these projects.
Cultural and political sensitivities also play a role. Both nations must navigate their historical and geopolitical dynamics to maintain a partnership rooted in mutual respect. For Việt Nam, ensuring that economic cooperation does not compromise national sovereignty or local interests remains a priority, while China must address perceptions of dominance in the relationship.
On the opportunity side, the digital and green economies offer a chance to redefine bilateral ties beyond traditional trade. If Việt Nam can leverage China’s technological expertise while safeguarding data privacy and fostering local innovation, the partnership could set a benchmark for regional collaboration. Similarly, joint efforts in clean energy and environmental governance could position both countries as leaders in sustainable development within ASEAN.
A Partnership with Global Implications
The economic ties between Việt Nam and China extend beyond bilateral interests, carrying implications for the broader Asia-Pacific region. As key members of RCEP, their cooperation shapes the trajectory of regional trade liberalisation, influencing how other nations engage with frameworks like the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. The success of cross-border projects, such as the standard-gauge railways, could inspire similar initiatives elsewhere, enhancing connectivity across Southeast Asia.
For global observers, this partnership exemplifies the potential of South-South cooperation in driving economic growth. Yet, it also underscores the importance of equitable development, as smaller economies like Việt Nam seek to balance benefits with autonomy in partnerships with larger powers like China. If navigated with foresight, this relationship could serve as a blueprint for inclusive regional integration.
In conclusion, the economic alliance between Việt Nam and China stands at a critical juncture, with historic trade figures and ambitious projects paving the way for deeper collaboration. As both nations explore new frontiers in digital and green economies, their partnership holds the promise of transformative growth. However, realising this potential will require sustained dialogue, policy innovation, and a commitment to shared prosperity—elements that, if prioritised, could redefine economic cooperation in the region for decades to come.
