Vietnam is racing against time. With one of the fastest ageing populations in the world, the country is projected to enter an “aged” demographic phase by 2036 and reach “super-aged” status by 2049. This rapid shift, coupled with a plummeting fertility rate, is setting the stage for profound economic and social challenges, from labour shortages to strained healthcare systems. As policymakers grapple with these looming issues, experts warn that without urgent and innovative interventions, Vietnam risks a demographic crisis that could undermine decades of economic progress.
The numbers paint a stark picture. According to the 2024 mid-term Population and Housing Census, Vietnam’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to a historic low of 1.91 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population. Urban areas are particularly affected, with a TFR of just 1.67, compared to 2.08 in rural regions. Meanwhile, the elderly population—those aged 60 and above—has surged to 14.2 million in 2024, up by 2.8 million since 2019. Projections suggest this figure will climb to 18 million by 2030, a pace of ageing that leaves little room for gradual adaptation.
“Without effective policy intervention, birth rates will continue to decline, exacerbating the economic and social strain of an ageing population,” said Nguyễn Thị Thanh Mai, Deputy Director of the Department of Population and Labour Statistics. Yet, she also noted a silver lining: ageing reflects improvements in healthcare, living conditions, and social welfare. The challenge, then, is not to reverse the trend but to adapt to it swiftly. 
A Compressed Transition
Unlike developed nations such as Japan or Germany, which took decades or even centuries to transition from ageing to aged societies, Vietnam is on track to complete this shift in just 26 years. This compressed timeline means the country must confront challenges that wealthier nations addressed with greater resources and longer preparation. If current trends hold, Vietnam’s population could begin shrinking between 2054 and 2059, with sharper declines expected thereafter.
The implications are far-reaching. A shrinking workforce threatens to create labour shortages, reduce productivity, and place immense pressure on social welfare systems. Healthcare and pension systems, in particular, face unprecedented strain as the proportion of elderly citizens grows while the working-age population—currently 67.4% of the total—begins to contract. For every two working-age individuals today, there is one dependent, a ratio that will tilt unfavourably in the coming decades.
Economic growth, a cornerstone of Vietnam’s development since the Đổi Mới reforms of the late 1980s, could falter under these pressures. Industries reliant on a young, dynamic labour force—such as manufacturing and technology—may struggle to remain competitive. At the same time, the rising costs of supporting an ageing population could divert public funds from critical areas like education and infrastructure.
Why Are Birth Rates Falling?
The decline in fertility rates is not unique to Vietnam. The United Nations’ 2024 World Population Prospects report notes that global fertility has dropped significantly, with women today having, on average, one child fewer than in 1990. More than half of all countries now record birth rates below replacement level. In Vietnam, however, the trend is compounded by specific socio-economic factors.
Experts point to the rising costs of raising children as a primary deterrent. In urban centres like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, the financial burden of housing, education, and healthcare weighs heavily on young couples. Many prioritise career advancement and personal quality of life over starting larger families. “The economic pressures are real,” said Dr Hoàng Tú Anh, Director of the Centre for Creative Initiatives in Health and Population (CCIHP). “Young people are making rational choices based on their circumstances.”
Cultural shifts also play a role. Traditional values that once encouraged large families are giving way to modern aspirations. Urbanisation has further eroded extended family structures, leaving nuclear families to shoulder childcare responsibilities alone. In industrial zones, where many young workers are employed, the lack of childcare facilities exacerbates the problem. Couples often delay having children or send them to rural hometowns to be raised by grandparents, a practice that reflects both economic necessity and systemic gaps.
Policy Responses: A Race Against Time
Addressing Vietnam’s demographic challenges requires a multi-pronged approach, and policymakers are beginning to take notice. One proposed measure is to lift disciplinary restrictions on Communist Party members who have a third child or more, a significant shift from past policies aimed at curbing population growth. Dr Hoàng Tú Anh welcomed the move, telling the Voice of Vietnam that “deciding how many children to have is a reproductive right” and that state policies must balance individual aspirations with national development goals.
Beyond policy relaxation, experts advocate for structural changes to support working parents. A pressing need is the establishment of childcare centres, schools, and healthcare facilities in industrial zones, where young workers often struggle to balance professional and family responsibilities. Employers, too, must be incentivised to adopt family-friendly policies, such as flexible working hours and parental leave. Such measures could alleviate some of the economic pressures deterring larger families.
Public awareness campaigns are another key strategy. By promoting the value of childbearing and parenting through education and media, the government hopes to shift societal perceptions of family life. However, Dr Anh cautions that effective policies must be grounded in research into the personal values and traditions influencing family planning decisions. Without understanding these underlying factors, interventions risk missing the mark.
Learning from Neighbours
Vietnam is not alone in facing an ageing crisis. Neighbouring countries like Japan, South Korea, and China have grappled with similar challenges, often with limited success in reversing fertility declines. Japan, for instance, has introduced generous subsidies for families and expanded childcare services, yet its birth rate remains stubbornly low. South Korea, meanwhile, spends billions annually on pro-natalist policies, but cultural and economic barriers continue to deter young couples from having children.
These examples underscore the complexity of the issue. While financial incentives and infrastructure improvements are critical, they must be paired with efforts to address deeper societal trends. Vietnam has the advantage of learning from these precedents, but time is not on its side. The country must act decisively to avoid the entrenched demographic dilemmas faced by its neighbours.
A Demographic Time Bomb?
The term “demographic time bomb” is often used to describe situations like Vietnam’s, where rapid ageing and declining birth rates threaten long-term stability. If unaddressed, the economic consequences could be severe: a shrinking tax base, overburdened public services, and reduced global competitiveness. Yet, there is also an opportunity to turn this challenge into a catalyst for innovation. By investing in healthcare, education, and family support systems now, Vietnam can build a more resilient society for the future.
Speculative projections suggest that if fertility rates continue to decline unchecked, the population could fall below sustainable levels by the end of the century. However, such estimates remain unconfirmed, and much depends on the effectiveness of policy interventions in the coming years. What is certain is that adaptation, rather than reversal, must be the focus. Ageing is a sign of progress—better healthcare and living standards have enabled longer lives—but it demands a proactive response.
The Human Face of Ageing
Amid the statistics and policy debates, it’s easy to overlook the human stories at the heart of this transformation. On Ly Son Island in Quang Ngai Province, doctors are providing health consultations to the elderly and children, a small but vital effort to support communities navigating these demographic shifts. Such initiatives highlight the immediate needs of an ageing population—access to healthcare, social support, and community engagement—that must be scaled up nationwide.
Vietnam stands at a crossroads. Its “golden population period,” where the working-age majority drives economic growth, is slipping away. The choices made today—whether to invest in family support, rethink workplace policies, or reframe societal attitudes toward ageing—will shape the country’s trajectory for generations. The clock is ticking, and the stakes could not be higher.
