In a significant step towards bolstering regional security, Japan and the Philippines are set to establish a new framework for high-level defence consultations, as both nations seek to counter China’s increasingly assertive actions in the East and South China Seas. Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani is expected to arrive in Manila on Saturday to finalise this agreement with his Philippine counterpart, Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro Jr., according to sources within the Japanese government. This move marks a deepening of military and strategic ties between the two countries, reflecting shared concerns over Beijing’s hegemonic behaviour in the region.
The proposed framework, to be conducted at the director-general level between the defence authorities of both nations, aims to facilitate closer coordination on defence equipment exports and joint military initiatives. It comes at a time when tensions in the South China Sea have escalated, with China Coast Guard vessels repeatedly engaging in coercive actions, including ramming Philippine ships. Similarly, Japan has faced persistent intrusions by Chinese vessels into territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, a long-standing point of contention.
Strengthening Defence Exports and Cooperation
A key focus of the upcoming talks is the potential export of Japanese defence equipment to the Philippines. Japan made history in 2023 by exporting air surveillance radar systems to Manila, marking its first-ever transfer of completed defence equipment to another nation. Building on this milestone, Tokyo is now considering further exports, including additional radar systems, high-mobility vehicles from Japan’s Ground Self-Defence Force, and even destroyers from the Maritime Self-Defence Force. However, under Japan’s strict guidelines on the transfer of defence equipment—outlined in the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology—the export of completed destroyers is likely to take the form of a joint development project, rather than a direct sale. 
Japanese Defence Ministry officials and representatives from defence-related companies are also planning a visit to the Philippines in the near future to assess Manila’s specific needs. This proactive approach signals Japan’s intent to tailor its support to the Philippine military’s requirements, ensuring that any equipment or technology transferred aligns with the country’s strategic priorities.
Beyond equipment exports, the two nations are expected to solidify their opposition to unilateral changes to the status quo in the East and South China Seas during the defence chiefs’ discussions. This shared stance is a direct response to China’s expansive territorial claims and militarisation of disputed areas, which have drawn international criticism. Additionally, both sides are anticipated to finalise procedures for a bilateral reciprocal access agreement, which will streamline joint training exercises between the Self-Defence Forces and the Philippine military. Plans to enhance multilateral joint exercises involving the United States and Australia are also on the agenda, underscoring a broader regional effort to maintain stability.
A Strategic Response to Regional Challenges
The deepening defence partnership between Japan and the Philippines must be understood within the broader geopolitical context of the Indo-Pacific region. China’s actions in the South China Sea, where it claims vast swathes of territory despite overlapping claims by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, have heightened tensions and prompted calls for a unified response. Beijing’s construction of artificial islands and deployment of military assets in disputed waters have been widely condemned as violations of international law, particularly following the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which rejected China’s expansive claims in favour of the Philippines.
For Japan, the situation is equally pressing in the East China Sea, where the Senkaku Islands—administered by Tokyo but claimed by Beijing as the Diaoyu Islands—remain a flashpoint. Incursions by Chinese vessels into Japanese territorial waters have become almost routine, testing Tokyo’s resolve and prompting calls for stronger defence measures. While Japan has historically adhered to a pacifist constitution that limits its military engagement, recent years have seen a gradual shift towards a more proactive security posture, including amendments to defence policies and increased cooperation with allies.
The Philippines, meanwhile, faces direct challenges to its sovereignty in the South China Sea, particularly around features such as the Second Thomas Shoal, where Philippine vessels resupplying troops have been met with aggressive interference from Chinese forces. Manila has sought to balance its response by strengthening ties with traditional allies like the United States while also fostering new partnerships with nations like Japan, whose technological expertise and shared strategic interests make it a valuable partner.
Conditional Implications of Defence Cooperation
If the proposed framework for defence consultations between Japan and the Philippines is successfully implemented, it could significantly enhance Manila’s military capabilities, particularly in maritime surveillance and response. The potential transfer of high-mobility vehicles and additional radar systems may bolster the Philippine military’s ability to monitor and defend its vast maritime territory, though the scale and timeline of such exports remain unconfirmed. Similarly, joint development of destroyers, if realised, could mark a new chapter in Japan-Philippines defence ties, though challenges related to funding, technical integration, and compliance with Japan’s export guidelines must first be addressed.
On a regional level, the strengthening of bilateral and multilateral military exercises involving the United States and Australia may serve as a deterrent to further Chinese aggression, though it also risks escalating tensions if perceived as a direct challenge to Beijing. Analysts caution that while such cooperation signals a united front, it must be accompanied by diplomatic efforts to de-escalate conflicts and prevent miscalculations that could lead to open confrontation. As of now, there is no evidence to suggest that these initiatives will immediately alter the balance of power in the region, but they do represent a meaningful step towards greater security coordination among like-minded nations.
Broader Context for a Global Audience
For readers unfamiliar with the intricacies of South China Sea disputes, it is worth noting that the region is one of the world’s most contested maritime zones, with trillions of dollars in trade passing through its waters annually. Control over key shipping lanes and access to potential undersea resources, including oil and gas, are central to the competing claims of multiple nations. The Philippines, as a key claimant state, relies heavily on international partnerships to assert its rights under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), while Japan’s involvement reflects its own strategic interest in maintaining freedom of navigation and upholding a rules-based international order.
Japan’s evolving defence export policy is also a point of interest. Historically constrained by its post-World War II constitution, which renounces war as a means of settling disputes, Japan has traditionally focused on self-defence rather than military exports. However, under the administration of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and subsequent leaders, Tokyo has gradually relaxed restrictions on defence transfers, viewing them as a tool to strengthen alliances and contribute to regional stability. The 2023 radar export to the Philippines was a landmark in this shift, and further exports could set a precedent for Japan’s role as a defence partner in the region.
As Japan and the Philippines move forward with their defence cooperation, the international community will be watching closely to gauge the impact on regional dynamics. For now, the establishment of a new consultation framework and the potential for expanded equipment transfers represent a pragmatic response to shared challenges, rather than a provocative escalation. Both nations appear committed to balancing military preparedness with adherence to international norms, a stance that aligns with broader efforts to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
The upcoming talks in Manila will be a critical test of this partnership’s potential. While immediate outcomes may be limited to agreements on process and intent, the long-term implications—if equipment transfers and joint exercises are scaled up—could reshape security alignments in the region. For the Philippines, access to Japanese technology and training offers a chance to modernise its armed forces, while for Japan, the partnership reinforces its role as a key player in countering China’s regional ambitions. Whether these efforts will lead to meaningful change, however, remains to be seen, as both nations navigate the delicate balance between deterrence and diplomacy in an increasingly volatile region.
