Singapore’s Large Families Scheme: A Push to Reverse Declining Birth Rates

In a bid to counter one of the world’s lowest fertility rates, Singapore has unveiled the Large Families Scheme, a new initiative aimed at encouraging couples to have three or more children. Announced by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong during his Budget speech on 18 February, the policy offers financial support to both aspiring and existing larger families. But with the resident total fertility rate (TFR) hitting a historic low of 0.97 in 2023—far below the replacement level of 2.1—can this scheme turn the tide on decades of declining birth rates?

The Large Families Scheme, which defines a “large family” as having three or more children, comes at a critical juncture. Department of Statistics data for 2024 reveals that 41.8% of resident women aged 40 to 49 who have ever been married have two children, making this the most common family size. This trend, consistent over the past two decades, reflects a societal norm rooted in the 1970s family planning slogan, “Girl or boy, two is enough.” However, while financial constraints drove that era’s decisions, today’s parents often cite the desire to devote maximum time, money, and resources to fewer children as their rationale.

A Generational Shift in Family Ideals

Singapore’s demographic landscape has shifted dramatically since the “stop-at-two” campaign ended nearly four decades ago. The proportion of women with three or more children has halved from 33.5% in 2004 to just 18% in 2024. Meanwhile, childlessness among married women in the same age group has risen sharply, from 7.1% in 2004 to 15% in 2024. At the other end of the spectrum, the share of women with only one child has grown, now trailing just behind the two-child norm.

These trends are compounded by later marriages, which often reduce the window for childbearing. The cultural significance of auspicious years, such as the 2024 dragon year, may offer a slight uptick in births, though official TFR figures for 2024 remain undisclosed. Against this backdrop, the Large Families Scheme seeks to address both financial and aspirational barriers for couples contemplating larger families.

Under the scheme, families with a third or subsequent Singaporean child born on or after 18 February 2025 will receive targeted support, though specific details of the benefits remain limited in public announcements. Additionally, existing large families with at least one child aged six or younger—born between 1 January 2019 and 17 February 2025—will receive $1,000 annually in Large Family LifeSG Credits until the child turns six. This provision extends a lifeline to parents who have already embraced larger families, acknowledging their current financial burdens.

Financial Nudges Amidst Complex Challenges

Experts caution that while the scheme may appeal to a niche group, it is unlikely to fundamentally alter entrenched family size ideals. Dr Mathew Mathews, a principal research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), suggests the policy could “give a nudge” to couples already open to having more children by easing affordability concerns. He argues that in the context of Singapore’s ultra-low fertility rate, any measure that prevents further declines in TFR is welcome.

Similarly, senior IPS research fellow Tan Poh Lin notes that the scheme is most relevant to those hesitating due to financial constraints but unlikely to sway those committed to smaller families. “Singapore’s low fertility rate stems from a plethora of causes,” she explains, highlighting the difficulty of addressing such a multifaceted issue with a single policy.

Indeed, the Large Families Scheme joins a suite of pro-natalist measures implemented over the past two decades. These include the Baby Bonus cash gifts for newborns, extended maternity and paternity leave, and government co-funding for in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatments for older women. Despite these efforts, fertility rates have continued to plummet, suggesting deeper societal and economic factors at play.

The Broader Context of Declining Fertility

Singapore’s demographic crisis is not merely a numbers game; it reflects profound shifts in societal values and economic realities. The high cost of living, coupled with intense career demands, often deters couples from expanding their families. Housing, education, and childcare expenses weigh heavily on parental decisions, while the cultural emphasis on providing the “best” for each child reinforces the preference for smaller family units.

Moreover, the trend of delayed marriages—often driven by career aspirations or the pursuit of financial stability—further compresses reproductive timelines. For many, the decision to have children, let alone three or more, becomes a calculated trade-off between personal goals and societal expectations.

The government’s redefinition of a “large family” as having three or more children underscores how far norms have shifted. In the 1970s, limiting families to two was the state’s goal; today, achieving three is framed as an ambitious target. This policy pivot reflects an urgent need to address population ageing, a looming challenge for Singapore’s economy and social welfare systems. With fewer working-age individuals to support a growing elderly population, the strain on public resources could intensify in the coming decades.

Regional Comparisons and Global Implications

Singapore is not alone in grappling with ultra-low fertility rates. Neighbouring countries like South Korea (TFR of 0.78 in 2022) and Japan (TFR of 1.26 in 2022) face similar challenges, driven by urbanisation, economic pressures, and changing gender roles. South Korea, for instance, has poured billions into subsidies and family-friendly policies with limited success, suggesting that financial incentives alone may not suffice.

In contrast, countries like Malaysia, with a TFR of 1.8 in 2023, benefit from cultural and religious norms that often encourage larger families, though urban areas show declining trends akin to Singapore’s. For Singapore, where multiculturalism and secular governance shape family policies, the challenge lies in crafting initiatives that resonate across diverse communities without alienating those who prioritise smaller families or childlessness by choice.

The Large Families Scheme also raises questions about equity. While it targets a specific demographic—those open to or already having three or more children—it may inadvertently overlook the needs of single-child families or childless couples facing financial strain. Balancing targeted incentives with broader social support will be crucial to avoid perceptions of unfairness.

Can Policy Reshape Mindsets?

At its core, the Large Families Scheme is as much about symbolism as it is about substance. By redefining what constitutes a “large family” and offering tangible support, the government signals its commitment to reversing demographic decline. Yet, as Dr Tan of IPS notes, no single policy can address the “plethora of causes” behind low fertility. Cultural attitudes towards work-life balance, gender roles, and the value of parenthood must evolve alongside economic incentives.

If the scheme succeeds in encouraging even a modest uptick in births among targeted couples, it could help stabilise Singapore’s TFR, preventing it from slipping further below the already critical 0.97 mark. However, without addressing systemic issues—such as affordable housing, workplace flexibility, and societal pressures—its impact may remain limited to a small segment of the population.

As Singapore navigates this demographic tightrope, the Large Families Scheme represents a pragmatic, if incremental, step forward. Whether it can inspire a cultural shift towards larger families remains an open question, one that will unfold over years, if not decades. For now, the city-state continues to grapple with a future where two children remain the norm, and three or more a rare aspiration.