Vietnam’s durian industry, a cornerstone of the country’s agricultural exports, is grappling with a severe downturn as shipments to China, its largest market, have plummeted by 80% in the first half of February 2025. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), only 3,500 tonnes of durian were exported during this period, a stark contrast to previous volumes. This sharp decline has reverberated through Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable sector, with export revenues dropping to US$416 million in January 2025, down 11.3% month-on-month and 5.2% year-on-year. As farmers and traders struggle to adapt to China’s stringent new inspection measures, the crisis raises broader questions about Vietnam’s reliance on a single market and the sustainability of its durian boom.
A Perfect Storm: Stricter Inspections and Border Delays
The root of the crisis lies in China’s tightened regulations on imported durians, introduced in early 2025, which focus on detecting residues of cadmium and Auramine O (Basic Yellow 2 – BY2), a synthetic dye sometimes used in food processing. These measures, initially prompted by violations found in Thai durian shipments, now mandate residue testing for all consignments in accredited laboratories. The result has been significant delays in export procedures, with congestion at border gates disrupting delivery schedules. Some Vietnamese traders, desperate to bypass the backlog, have turned to informal grey-market channels, a practice that officials warn is unsustainable and risks damaging the industry’s reputation.
Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phùng Đức Tiến has acknowledged the dual nature of China’s policy, noting that while the stricter controls aim to ensure food safety, they pose “significant challenges” for Vietnamese exporters and farmers. Phan Thị Mến, CEO of Sutech Science and Technology Consulting Co., Ltd., highlighted the severity of the impact, stating that export volumes have drastically fallen, with some days seeing no shipments processed at all. Meanwhile, Đoàn Thanh Sơn, Deputy Chairman of Lạng Sơn Province’s People’s Committee, pointed out that China had issued multiple warnings to Vietnamese exporters to improve quality control, yet many have struggled to meet the new compliance standards. 
The timing of the crisis could not be worse. Vietnam’s durian harvest is at its peak, with around 169,000 hectares of plantations—more than double the planned area for 2030 of 65,000–75,000 hectares—reaching harvestable maturity. The oversaturation of durian cultivation, originally spurred by high demand from China, now exacerbates the financial strain on farmers who face dwindling outlets for their produce.
Government and Industry Response: A Race Against Time
In response to the export slump, MARD has mobilised relevant agencies and local authorities to implement stricter quality management models, focusing on chemical use in plantations and packaging facilities to align with China’s standards. Deputy Minister Hoàng Trung revealed that, in addition to the nine testing laboratories already recognised by China, six more have been submitted for approval to expedite the export process. These efforts aim to alleviate the bottleneck at border crossings and restore confidence in Vietnamese durian quality.
Beyond technical solutions, the Vietnamese government is actively negotiating with China to relax the stringent inspection protocols and return to previous export regulations. Such a rollback, if successful, could provide immediate relief to traders and farmers. However, these diplomatic efforts are ongoing, and there is no guarantee of a swift resolution. In the meantime, the industry faces mounting losses as perishable durian stocks pile up, unable to reach their intended market.
Some exporters are exploring alternative markets to diversify away from over-reliance on China, a strategy that could offer long-term stability for Vietnam’s durian sector. However, establishing footholds in new regions takes time and investment, and few markets match China’s voracious demand for the fruit, often dubbed the “king of fruits” for its distinctive taste and cultural significance in Asia. The challenge is compounded by recent quality concerns in other markets; for instance, Taiwan’s Food and Drug Administration imposed mandatory inspections on all fresh durian shipments from Vietnam between August 2024 and February 2025 after four batches failed quality tests within six months.
Economic Ripples: Beyond the Durian Fields
The durian export crisis is not an isolated issue but a symptom of broader vulnerabilities in Vietnam’s agricultural export strategy. The fruit and vegetable sector, a vital component of the national economy, has long depended on China as its primary buyer, with durian alone contributing significantly to rural livelihoods in provinces like Tien Giang in the Mekong Delta. The current downturn threatens not only farmers’ incomes but also the financial stability of trading companies and logistics providers along the supply chain.
Economists warn that if the situation persists, the ripple effects could dampen Vietnam’s overall export performance, a key driver of economic growth. The 11.3% month-on-month decline in fruit and vegetable export revenues in January 2025 is already a red flag, signaling potential challenges for meeting annual trade targets. Moreover, the crisis underscores the risks of agricultural overproduction driven by market booms. The rapid expansion of durian plantations beyond sustainable levels has left the industry exposed to external shocks, such as policy changes in importing countries.
There is also a social dimension to consider. In rural communities where durian farming is a primary livelihood, the export slump could exacerbate economic inequality, pushing smallholder farmers into debt or forcing them to abandon cultivation altogether. Local authorities in durian-growing regions are under pressure to provide support, whether through subsidies, retraining programs, or market diversification initiatives, though resources for such interventions are often limited.
The durian export crisis offers Vietnam a critical opportunity to reassess its agricultural export model. Diversifying markets is an obvious priority, but it must be accompanied by investments in quality control and compliance infrastructure to meet international standards. If Vietnam can enhance its laboratory testing capacity and enforce stricter regulations on chemical use, it may not only regain China’s trust but also position itself as a reliable supplier in other high-value markets.
Moreover, the government could explore value-added processing—such as frozen durian or durian-based products—to reduce dependence on fresh fruit exports, which are highly perishable and vulnerable to logistical disruptions. Such innovations, while requiring upfront investment, could create new revenue streams and bolster the industry’s resilience against future market fluctuations.
There is also a speculative angle to consider: if China’s stringent measures are part of a broader push to prioritise domestic agricultural production or exert trade leverage, Vietnam may face similar challenges with other export commodities in the future. While no evidence confirms this intent, the possibility underscores the urgency of reducing reliance on any single market. Analysts suggest that regional trade agreements, such as those under the ASEAN framework, could provide alternative avenues for Vietnamese durian, though demand in neighbouring countries may not match China’s scale.
A Crossroads for Vietnam’s Durian Industry
Vietnam’s durian export crisis is a stark reminder of the fragility of global trade dependencies. As farmers in Tien Giang and beyond watch their harvests go unsold, the government and industry stakeholders are racing to adapt to China’s new reality. Whether through diplomatic negotiations, quality improvements, or market diversification, the path forward requires a delicate balance of short-term relief and long-term strategy.
For now, the stakes are high. The durian, a symbol of Vietnam’s agricultural prowess, has become a litmus test for the country’s ability to navigate an increasingly complex international trade landscape. If addressed effectively, this crisis could spur reforms that strengthen the sector for years to come. If not, it risks undermining the livelihoods of thousands and casting a shadow over Vietnam’s export ambitions. As the harvest season presses on, all eyes are on Hanoi and Beijing to see whether a resolution can be reached before irreparable damage is done.
