Thailand’s Rice Crisis: Farmers’ Protests Threaten Pheu Thai’s Political Future

Bangkok, 24 February 2025 – A wave of discontent is sweeping through Thailand’s rice fields as farmers, once the backbone of political support for successive governments, take to the streets in protest over plummeting rice prices. With prices dropping to as low as 6,000-8,000 baht per ton from a high of 16,000 baht just a year ago, the agricultural heartland is in crisis, and the ruling Pheu Thai Party faces mounting pressure to act. For a party that has historically relied on rural votes to secure power, the protests signal a potential political time bomb.

A Steep Decline Sparks Outrage

Thailand’s rice farmers, numbering over 4.3 million households, represent a crucial voting bloc, often courted by political parties through policies like income guarantees and rice pledging schemes. For years, such measures have helped stabilise rural incomes and win elections. But the current crisis, marked by a sharp decline in rice prices since the Pheu Thai Party assumed power two years ago, has eroded that goodwill.

In early February, farmers rallied at the Ministry of Commerce in Bangkok, demanding a price guarantee of 11,000 baht per ton for paddy rice with 15% moisture content. Their pleas initially fell on deaf ears, prompting a more disruptive protest on 14 February, when farmers blocked three lanes of the Asia Highway in Ayutthaya province. The resulting traffic chaos forced provincial authorities to intervene, promising to escalate the farmers’ demands to the central government.

The protests have sent a clear message to the Pheu Thai-led coalition: address the crisis or risk alienating a key constituency. Inside Parliament, dissatisfaction is also brewing, with MPs from rice-growing regions in the lower Northern and Central provinces openly criticising Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan for his apparent inaction. Pichai, who faced backlash for being abroad as agricultural prices plummeted, attributed the decline to India’s resumption of rice exports after a mid-2023 halt.

Government Response Falls Short

On 20 February, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra summoned Pichai and Agriculture Minister Narumon Pinyosinwat for an urgent meeting to tackle the crisis. Later that day, Pichai chaired a session of the National Rice Policy and Management Committee’s marketing subcommittee, approving a 1.893 billion baht package of measures. These include delayed loans for second crop planting, a 6% interest rate compensation for mill operators, and rice procurement points offering 300 baht above market price per ton.

However, these steps have been met with scepticism. Pramote Jaroensilp, president of the Thai Farmers and Agricultural Association, dismissed the measures as inadequate, arguing they fail to address farmers’ immediate needs. He accused the policies of opening doors to corruption and lacking institutional preparedness. Instead, the association has demanded a return to rice price guarantees of at least 12,000 baht per ton for low-moisture rice and 10,000 baht for higher-moisture varieties.

For now, the government and farmers remain at an impasse. While Pheu Thai’s proposed solutions aim to provide short-term relief, they stop short of the comprehensive price guarantees farmers are seeking. If unresolved, this standoff could escalate into a broader movement, threatening the party’s rural support base as it approaches the midpoint of its term.

Deeper Roots of the Crisis

Beyond the immediate issue of falling prices lies a more systemic problem for Thai rice. High production costs, lower yields compared to regional competitors like Vietnam, and fluctuating global market prices have long plagued the sector. Additionally, Thai rice varieties struggle to meet the preferences of international importers, limiting export demand. With production estimated at 33-34 million tons of paddy rice this year (equivalent to 23 million tons of white rice) and an export target of just 7.5 million tons, the oversupply exacerbates the price drop.

Historically, government responses to such crises have relied on temporary fixes—subsidies, compensation, or pledging schemes funded by the national budget. While these measures offer short-term relief, they fail to tackle underlying structural issues. Without a long-term strategy to improve competitiveness, reduce costs, and align rice varieties with global demand, Thai farmers are likely to face recurring cycles of hardship.

The current crisis also reflects a broader challenge for Thailand’s agricultural economy. Rice, a staple of both diet and culture, is more than just a commodity; it is a symbol of rural identity and political power. Any government perceived as neglecting farmers risks not only economic fallout but also a significant loss of legitimacy in the eyes of millions.

Political Implications for Pheu Thai

For the Pheu Thai Party, the stakes could not be higher. Historically aligned with rural voters through populist policies under former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the party has built its electoral success on promises of agricultural support. The rice pledging scheme of 2011-2014, implemented by Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra, was a flagship policy that guaranteed above-market prices for farmers, though it later led to financial scandal and political upheaval.

Today, as rice prices collapse under Pheu Thai’s watch, the party faces accusations of abandoning its rural base. If the government fails to meet farmers’ demands, or if protests escalate, the issue could become a rallying point for opposition parties eager to capitalise on rural discontent. With Thailand’s political landscape already fractured by years of coups, protests, and polarisation, such a misstep could weaken Pheu Thai’s grip on power.

Speculative analysis suggests that sustained low prices, if unaddressed, may lead to broader unrest in rural areas, potentially impacting national stability. However, no evidence currently confirms such an outcome, and the government’s response in the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether tensions ease or intensify.

A Global Context

Thailand’s rice crisis does not exist in isolation. The global rice market has been volatile in recent years, with India’s export policies playing a significant role. When India halted exports in mid-2023 to prioritise domestic supply, prices soared, benefiting Thai farmers. The resumption of exports has reversed that trend, flooding the market and driving prices down—a reminder of how interconnected agricultural economies are to international policy shifts.

For Thai farmers, this external factor adds another layer of frustration. While they can protest domestic inaction, they have little control over global forces. This dynamic underscores the need for a diversified agricultural strategy that reduces reliance on rice exports alone, perhaps by promoting alternative crops or value-added products.

Looking Ahead: A Call for Structural Reform

As the Pheu Thai government prepares to present its relief measures to the National Rice Policy Committee, the question remains whether these steps will pacify farmers or merely delay the inevitable. Temporary aid, while politically expedient, risks perpetuating a cycle of dependency without addressing the root causes of the crisis.

A more sustainable path forward would involve investment in agricultural innovation—improving irrigation, adopting higher-yield rice varieties, and providing training to reduce production costs. Equally important is a focus on market diversification, ensuring Thai rice meets the tastes of emerging markets while exploring domestic processing industries to add value before export.

For now, the rice fields of Thailand are not just a battleground for economic survival but a litmus test for political will. The Pheu Thai Party must navigate this crisis with care, balancing short-term relief with long-term vision. Failure to do so could see the anger of farmers transform from isolated protests into a broader movement, reshaping the political landscape in ways that are difficult to predict.

As one farmer told a local outlet during the Asia Highway blockade, “We grow the food that feeds this nation, yet we can’t feed our own families.” That sentiment, if left unaddressed, may well become the rallying cry of a disenfranchised rural electorate—one that Pheu Thai can ill afford to ignore.