Dramatic Shift in US Foreign Policy Leaves Ukraine and Europe Reeling

In a stunning turn of events, the United States under President Donald Trump has orchestrated what many are calling the most dramatic shift in its foreign policy since the early 20th century. A high-level meeting last week in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between American and Russian officials has signalled a potential realignment of global alliances, leaving Ukraine and the European Union grappling with a sense of betrayal and uncertainty. This development, unthinkable just months ago when headlines warned of nuclear catastrophe and a looming World War III, marks a profound departure from the trans-Atlantic unity that has defined Western geopolitics for decades.

The Riyadh meeting, conducted without consultation with Ukraine, saw the US and Russia agree to “consider each other’s interests” and lay the groundwork for post-conflict geopolitical and economic cooperation. This pivot stands in stark contrast to the previous Western strategy of isolating and economically crippling Russia through sanctions. The implications are seismic: a fractured “collective West,” a sidelined Ukraine, and a Europe left to reassess its strategic and ideological commitments.

A New Multi-Polar Order Emerges

The abrupt change in US policy comes on the heels of Donald Trump’s second inauguration, barely a month ago. For Ukraine, which has been locked in a brutal conflict with Russia since February 2022, the shift feels like a betrayal of the highest order. The German magazine Der Spiegel captured this sentiment on its latest cover, featuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with the headline “VERRATEN” (Betrayed) and a sub-heading questioning whether Europe might be next.

For over three years, Ukraine has fought what many describe as a proxy war on behalf of the United States and NATO. Supported by billions in military aid, including advanced weaponry like tanks, fighter jets, and air defence systems, Ukraine was promised total victory over Russia. Western leaders vowed to stand by Kyiv “until the last Ukrainian,” while imposing over 16,500 sanctions on Moscow and freezing half of its foreign currency reserves—approximately US$350 billion (RM1.54 trillion). Yet, despite these measures, Russia’s economy has shown resilience, with the International Monetary Fund projecting a 3.6% growth rate for 2024, outpacing the US (2.8%) and key European economies like Germany (0%) and France (1.1%).

Now, with the US seemingly prioritising rapprochement with Russia, Ukraine finds itself isolated. Reports of forced conscription in Ukrainian cities, with men being pulled off streets and sent to recruitment centres, underscore the desperate state of its military. As early as December 2023, The New York Times highlighted the mounting casualties and battlefield stalemate driving these harsh measures. If the US-Russia dialogue in Riyadh signals a reduction in American support, Ukraine’s ability to sustain its war effort could be severely compromised.

Europe’s Trans-Atlantic Bond in Tatters

For Europe, the US policy shift is a bitter pill to swallow. The trans-Atlantic alliance, a cornerstone of post-World War II geopolitics, appears to be in shreds. European nations, many of which have been staunch supporters of Ukraine—both financially and militarily—are now confronted with an America that seems indifferent to past ideological commitments. The EU’s recent approval of its 16th sanctions package against Russia, targeting not only Moscow but also entities in China, India, and other countries, suggests a continued hardline stance. Yet, this move feels increasingly out of step with the new American approach.

The war has already exacted a heavy toll on Europe. Beyond the economic burden of supporting Ukraine and absorbing six million refugees, European industries have struggled with the loss of cheap Russian oil and gas. Civilian casualties in Ukraine—over 12,000 killed and 30,000 wounded, according to available estimates—have added a humanitarian dimension to the crisis. Military losses remain speculative, with Western media citing figures of 100,000 to 200,000 Russian deaths and up to 500,000 wounded, alongside roughly 100,000 Ukrainian fatalities and 400,000 injuries. These numbers, though unverified, paint a grim picture of a conflict that has devastated both sides.

The notion of betrayal extends beyond Ukraine to Europe’s own strategic interests. If the US is willing to sideline Kyiv, what guarantees do European nations have that their concerns will not be similarly dismissed? The question posed by Der Spiegel—whether Europe might be next—reflects a growing unease about the reliability of American partnership in an emerging multi-polar world.

Historical Context: A War with Deep Roots

To fully grasp the significance of the current moment, it is essential to revisit the origins of the Ukraine conflict. While the war is often dated to Russia’s “Special Military Operation” in February 2022, its roots lie in events nearly a decade earlier. In 2014, the United States backed what became known as the Maidan coup, a movement that overthrew Ukraine’s democratically elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, after he sought closer ties with Moscow. The ensuing unrest saw Crimea vote to join Russia in a referendum that offered the option of remaining part of Ukraine with greater autonomy—a result rejected by the West.

Russia’s stated objectives in 2022 included preventing Ukraine’s NATO membership, halting violence against ethnic Russians in the Donbass region, and addressing the presence of far-right elements in the Ukrainian military. These goals, while controversial, were framed by Moscow as existential security concerns. The West, in turn, decried the invasion as “unprovoked,” rallying behind Ukraine with unprecedented military and economic support.

The conflict’s evolution into a proxy war, with Ukraine and international mercenaries pitted against Russian forces, underscored the broader geopolitical stakes. Yet, as the war dragged on, the narrative of inevitable Western victory began to falter. Russia’s economic endurance, coupled with battlefield stalemates, challenged the efficacy of sanctions and military aid as tools of coercion.

Conditional Analysis: A Future in Flux or Surety?

The implications of the US-Russia dialogue in Riyadh remain speculative, and any analysis must be approached with caution. If confirmed, a sustained thaw in US-Russia relations could reshape the geopolitical landscape, potentially reducing the risk of nuclear escalation that dominated discourse just months ago. It may also pave the way for American and allied companies, which suffered billions in losses after exiting Russia, to re-enter the market—a pragmatic, if controversial, economic move.

However, such a realignment could come at the expense of Ukraine’s territorial and political aspirations. If US support wanes, Kyiv may be forced into negotiations on terms less favourable than those envisioned during the height of Western backing. For Europe, a fractured trans-Atlantic bond might necessitate greater strategic autonomy, potentially accelerating calls for a unified EU defence policy independent of NATO. These outcomes, though plausible, remain unconfirmed, with no official statements from Washington or Moscow detailing the scope of their agreement.

Equally uncertain is the impact on global perceptions of American reliability. Allies in other regions, including South East Asia where historical US commitments have shaped security architectures, may question the durability of partnerships forged in the name of shared values. If the US prioritises “interests” over “friends,” as Henry Kissinger famously observed, the ripple effects could extend far beyond Ukraine and Europe.

The US foreign policy shift under Donald Trump represents a jolting new reality for Ukraine, Europe, and the broader international community. What was once unthinkable—a rapproachment between bitter enemies at the expense of allies—has become a tangible possibility. For Ukraine, the sense of abandonment is palpable; for Europe, the challenge lies in navigating a world where the trans-Atlantic alliance no longer offers the certainty it once did.

As the multi-polar global order takes shape, the words of Kissinger resonate with chilling clarity: “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” Whether this pragmatic turn yields stability or sows further discord remains to be seen. For now, the world watches as old alliances crumble and new, uncertain alignments emerge from the rubble of a war that has already claimed too much.