Philippines’ Middle Power Moment: Navigating Superpower Rivalries and Domestic Challenges

In a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, the Philippines finds itself at a critical juncture. Caught between an unpredictable United States under a second Trump administration and an assertive China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea, the archipelago nation is striving to carve out a role as a formidable middle power in the Indo-Pacific. Yet, as a prominent Filipino voice recently argued, the greatest obstacles to the country’s aspirations may not lie in Washington or Beijing, but within its own borders.

Speaking to The Financial Times in the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, a senior Filipino official delivered a stark warning: “We want a seat at the table. Otherwise, we are going to wind up on the menu.” The statement encapsulates Manila’s growing determination to assert itself amid superpower rivalries. However, with domestic political instability—exacerbated by the lingering influence of the Duterte dynasty—and upcoming midterm elections framed as a referendum on national interest, the path to regional prominence is fraught with challenges.

A New Geopolitical Era

The second Trump administration has ushered in what many observers describe as a ruthlessly transactional approach to international relations. At the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, US officials openly criticised European allies for what they termed “wokeness” while making concessions to Russia over Ukraine, sidelining Kyiv in negotiations held in Saudi Arabia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Trump of falling for Kremlin propaganda, prompting a sharp retort from the US President, who branded Zelenskyy a “dictator” while praising Russian leadership.

This erosion of the post-war transatlantic alliance has sent shockwaves through the global order. Trump’s apparent disdain for values-based diplomacy, inspired by historical figures like Andrew Jackson and William McKinley, prioritises strength and self-interest over traditional partnerships. For allies in the Indo-Pacific, however, the outlook appears somewhat brighter. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s cordial meeting with Filipino Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo at Munich, alongside sustained US defence aid and discussions of a potential sectoral free trade agreement, signal that the transpacific alliance remains a priority for Washington.

Other regional players, such as Japan and India, also express cautious optimism about their ties with the US. Yet, as America grapples with internal divisions and a perceived decline in global dominance, the Philippines cannot rely solely on Washington’s goodwill. Nor can it ignore China’s hegemonic ambitions, particularly in the contested West Philippine Sea—a critical flashpoint in regional geopolitics.

The Middle Power Moment

Amid this uncertainty, the Philippines is embracing what has been described as its “middle power moment.” With a population ranking among the world’s top 15 and an economy in the top 30, the country is on track to join the ranks of the top 10 most populous and top 20 largest economies in the coming decades. This demographic and economic heft, combined with a growing resolve to assert its sovereignty, positions Manila as a pivotal player in the Indo-Pacific—the world’s most geopolitically significant region.

The Philippines has already demonstrated its willingness to stand firm against larger powers. Under former President Benigno Aquino III, it became the only nation to challenge China’s South China Sea claims through international arbitration, a landmark case that underscored Manila’s commitment to international law. More recently, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the country has confronted Beijing’s assertive tactics head-on through its “Transparency Initiative,” a policy aimed at exposing China’s actions in disputed waters. These moves have cemented the Philippines’ reputation as a resolute actor in Southeast Asia.

Bolstered by a booming economy, the Philippines is also investing billions annually in military modernisation. The goal is to build a mid-sized, modern, and capable 21st-century armed forces—a significant leap for a nation long constrained by limited defence capabilities. This transformation reflects not just ambition but necessity, as Manila seeks to deter aggression in its maritime backyard while navigating alliances with powers like the US and Japan.

Domestic Fault Lines

Yet, for all its external posturing, the Philippines’ greatest challenges are internal. Political instability, rooted in the influence of the Duterte dynasty, continues to undermine national cohesion. Critics argue that the family’s political machine has destabilised alliances, particularly with the US, while adopting a conciliatory stance towards China—an approach at odds with the current administration’s tougher line. This domestic discord threatens to derail the country’s aspirations to become a major Indo-Pacific force.

The upcoming midterm elections, slated for 2025, are being framed as a pivotal moment for the nation’s future. Observers suggest that the polls will serve as a litmus test for public support of Marcos’ foreign policy and his government’s broader vision. A fragmented political landscape, coupled with lingering loyalties to the Duterte faction, could weaken Manila’s ability to project strength abroad. As one analyst noted, the elections are “about nothing less than our national interest—and collective fate as a nation.”

The Duterte dynasty’s influence extends beyond politics into public sentiment, with a significant portion of the population still nostalgic for the former president’s populist rhetoric and domestic policies. This divide complicates efforts to build a unified national strategy, particularly on contentious issues like the South China Sea. If the Philippines is to fully realise its potential, reconciling these internal rifts will be as critical as any diplomatic or military initiative.

Balancing Superpower Rivalries

Externally, the Philippines must tread a delicate path between the US and China. While Washington remains a key security partner, its reliability under Trump is increasingly questioned. Reports of a potential trilateral summit between the US, Russia, and China—echoing the 1943 Tehran Conference where superpowers redrew the world order—have fuelled concerns of a new era of exclusionary geopolitics. Though unconfirmed, such speculation underscores the precarious position of middle powers like the Philippines, which risk being sidelined in great power negotiations.

China, meanwhile, continues to assert dominance in the South China Sea, claiming vast swathes of territory that overlap with the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Beijing’s aggressive posturing, including the deployment of coast guard vessels and militia boats, has escalated tensions in recent years. Manila’s Transparency Initiative, which involves publicising China’s actions through media and international forums, has drawn global attention to the issue but risks further provocation. Balancing deterrence with diplomacy will be a defining challenge for Marcos’ administration.

A Path Forward

As the Philippines navigates this complex web of domestic and international pressures, its middle power status offers both opportunities and risks. Strengthening alliances with like-minded nations—such as Japan, Australia, and India—could provide a counterweight to superpower dominance. Deepening economic ties through initiatives like the proposed US-Philippines free trade agreement may also bolster Manila’s leverage, ensuring it is not merely a pawn in great power games.

At home, political reconciliation and a focus on governance will be essential to sustain the momentum of recent years. The midterm elections offer a chance to consolidate support for a coherent national strategy, one that prioritises sovereignty, economic growth, and regional stability. Failure to address internal divisions, however, could embolden adversaries and weaken alliances, leaving the Philippines vulnerable at a time when resolve is most needed.

The stakes could not be higher. As superpower rivalries intensify and the global order fragments, the Philippines stands at a crossroads. Its journey to becoming a respected middle power hinges not just on military might or diplomatic finesse, but on the ability to forge a united front at home. Only then can it claim a seat at the table—and avoid becoming a footnote in the geopolitical struggles of the 21st century.