Bangladesh Navigates New Realities with Arakan Army in Rakhine State

As Myanmar’s civil war rages on, Bangladesh finds itself confronting a transformed geopolitical landscape along its western border. The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic minority armed group seeking autonomy in Rakhine State, now controls roughly 90% of the region, including the entire 271-kilometre border with Bangladesh. This seismic shift has prompted Dhaka to engage directly with the AA, balancing national security concerns with the urgent need for Rohingya repatriation and border stability.

Khalilur Rahman, the chief adviser’s high representative on the Rohingya issue, recently articulated Bangladesh’s pragmatic stance at a seminar hosted by the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance (SIPG) at North South University in Dhaka. “The day the AA raised its flag on our border, I instantly realised it’s a new world — you’ve got to deal with them,” Rahman stated, underlining the necessity of dialogue with the group now effectively governing much of Rakhine State.

This development comes against the backdrop of Myanmar’s ongoing turmoil, which began with the military coup in February 2021 that ousted the democratically elected government. Since then, the National Unity Government—a shadow administration formed by political leaders—and numerous ethnic armed organisations, including the AA, have been locked in conflict with the junta. For Bangladesh, the situation in Rakhine is not merely a distant crisis but a direct challenge, given the more than one million Rohingya refugees who have fled to its territory from the state over the years.

A New Neighbour on the Border

Rahman’s remarks at the seminar reflect a cautious but deliberate outreach to the AA. “Mind you, this is our border, and we have to protect it, make it secure, and ensure we work in collaboration with whoever is on the other side,” he said. This approach marks a significant shift for Bangladesh, which has traditionally dealt with Myanmar’s central authorities on matters of border security and refugee repatriation. Now, with the AA as a de facto authority in Rakhine, Dhaka is navigating uncharted diplomatic waters.

The stakes are high. Bangladesh shares its only land border outside India with Myanmar, making stability in Rakhine critical to national interests. Rahman emphasised a desire for friendly relations rather than dominance, stating, “A new neighbour is emerging, and Bangladesh wants to be friendly with them. We can begin the process of building trust, building confidence, and lay the basis for long-term friendly relations.” Notably, he clarified that Bangladesh has no plans for infrastructure projects, such as pipelines or transit routes, through Rakhine, focusing instead on security and humanitarian priorities.

Part of this diplomatic engagement includes ensuring that the AA adheres to international norms. Rahman disclosed that he met with Julie Bishop, the UN Secretary-General’s special envoy on Myanmar, to draft a statement urging the AA to respect human rights principles and international law. This move underscores Bangladesh’s intent to anchor its dealings with the group in a framework of accountability, even as it seeks practical cooperation.

The Rohingya Crisis and Humanitarian Imperatives

Central to Bangladesh’s engagement with the AA is the unresolved Rohingya crisis. Over a million Rohingya, a persecuted Muslim minority from Rakhine, have sought refuge in Bangladesh, particularly following waves of violence in 2017. The AA’s control over Rakhine raises both challenges and potential opportunities for repatriation. Abdul Hafiz, special assistant to the chief adviser on defence and national solidarity development, reiterated at the seminar that ensuring a “safe, dignified, and voluntary” return for the Rohingya remains a top priority for Dhaka.

However, the situation on the ground in Rakhine remains dire. Ambassador Md Sufiur Rahman, a senior research fellow at SIPG and keynote speaker at the seminar, highlighted that 750,000 people have been displaced within the state amid renewed fighting between the AA and Myanmar’s military. Poverty levels have soared to alarming heights, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. For Bangladesh, hosting a massive refugee population in camps near Cox’s Bazar, the instability in Rakhine complicates efforts to facilitate returns while also straining domestic resources.

Ambassador Rahman suggested that Bangladesh could play a stabilising role by extending humanitarian support and fostering economic ties between its port city of Chittagong and Rakhine. “Economic linkages can serve as a pathway to broader cooperation and peacebuilding,” he argued, proposing that such initiatives could help secure a peaceful border and cultivate a friendly neighbour. This vision, while ambitious, hinges on the AA’s willingness to prioritise stability and development over continued conflict.

Security Concerns Amid Shifting Dynamics

The rise of the AA as a border authority has also intensified security concerns for Bangladesh. Sk Tawfique M Haque, director of SIPG, urged a pragmatic policy towards the group, pointing to the “slow and silent influx” of Rohingya refugees since October 2023. He advocated for a balanced approach that addresses security imperatives alongside economic and diplomatic goals. The influx, though less dramatic than the 2017 exodus, underscores the porous nature of the border and the challenges of managing it with a non-state actor on the other side.

Abdul Hafiz echoed this sentiment, stressing the importance of diplomacy backed by “strategic deterrence based on a national consensus.” While he did not elaborate on specific military or security measures, his comments suggest that Bangladesh is prepared to bolster its border defences while pursuing dialogue with the AA. This dual strategy reflects the delicate tightrope Dhaka must walk: engaging a powerful armed group without legitimising actions that could contravene international law or destabilise the region further.

A Broader Regional Challenge

The situation in Rakhine is not just a bilateral issue for Bangladesh and Myanmar but part of a broader regional challenge. Myanmar’s civil war has fragmented authority across the country, with ethnic armed groups like the AA gaining ground in various territories. For neighbouring states, this raises questions about how to engage with de facto authorities without undermining the sovereignty of Myanmar’s central government—or appearing to endorse armed rebellion.

Bangladesh’s outreach to the AA, while pragmatic, carries risks. Any perception of formal recognition could strain relations with Myanmar’s junta or other international actors. Moreover, the AA’s commitment to human rights and governance remains untested on a large scale. If the group fails to uphold international standards, as urged by the UN statement drafted with Rahman’s input, Bangladesh could face criticism for engaging too readily with an armed faction.

At the same time, ignoring the AA is not an option. With control over a critical border and influence over the Rohingya’s potential return, the group is an unavoidable player in Bangladesh’s security and humanitarian calculations. The seminar discussions in Dhaka revealed a consensus on the need for engagement, albeit with clear boundaries and expectations. As Ambassador Rahman noted, the shifting political landscape in Rakhine demands a proactive response, one that prioritises stability and cooperation over isolation.

Looking Ahead: Trust and Uncertainty

As Bangladesh charts this new course, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Building trust with the AA will require sustained dialogue and tangible outcomes, particularly on border security and Rohingya repatriation. Economic cooperation, as proposed by speakers at the SIPG seminar, could serve as a foundation for broader peacebuilding, but only if both sides see mutual benefit.

For now, Dhaka’s strategy appears to hinge on cautious engagement, underpinned by a commitment to international norms and national interests. The AA’s emergence as a “new neighbour” marks a turning point for Bangladesh, one that demands adaptability in the face of Myanmar’s fractured reality. Whether this approach yields a secure border and a sustainable solution for the Rohingya remains to be seen, but it is clear that Bangladesh is determined to shape the terms of this evolving relationship.

In a region long scarred by conflict and displacement, the dialogue between Bangladesh and the Arakan Army offers a glimmer of possibility—albeit one tempered by the complex realities of war and geopolitics. As Rahman put it, this is indeed “a new world,” and navigating it will test the resilience and ingenuity of all involved.