In the bustling parks of Ho Chi Minh City’s Phu Nhuan District, children’s laughter rings out against a backdrop of a looming demographic crisis. Vietnam, a nation once buoyed by a youthful population, now faces one of the lowest birth rates in Southeast Asia. With a fertility rate of just 1.91 children per woman in 2024, the country has slipped below the replacement level of 2.1 for the third consecutive year, prompting urgent discussions about relaxing its long-standing two-child policy.

The Ministry of Health has proposed a significant shift, suggesting that couples be allowed to decide the number and timing of their children. This move, aimed at addressing a rapidly declining birth rate and stark regional disparities, signals a critical juncture for Vietnam as it grapples with the end of its so-called “golden population” era. Experts warn that without intervention, the nation could face labour shortages and severe socio-economic challenges by the mid-21st century.

A Nation at a Demographic Crossroads

Vietnam’s birth rate decline is not a sudden phenomenon but the culmination of years of social and economic transformation. From 1999 to 2022, the fertility rate hovered around the replacement level, according to a recent Ministry of Health report. However, the past two years have seen a sharp drop, from 1.96 in 2023 to 1.91 in 2024—the lowest in the nation’s history. This places Vietnam in a precarious position, with a rate higher only than Brunei (1.8), Malaysia (1.6), Thailand (1.47), and Singapore (1.0) in the region.

The decline is uneven across the country, revealing deep regional divides. The southeast and Mekong Delta regions report the lowest fertility rates, at 1.48 and 1.62 children per woman, respectively, while urban centres like Ho Chi Minh City stand at a mere 1.39—the lowest nationwide. In contrast, rural and mountainous areas, such as the northeast (2.34) and northern regions like Hà Giang Province (2.69), remain above replacement levels. Urbanisation, economic pressures, and shifting cultural norms are often cited as driving factors behind these disparities.

Experts point to a constellation of reasons for the downturn. Work-related stress, financial constraints, and a growing emphasis on career advancement have delayed or deterred family planning for many Vietnamese couples. Evolving social perceptions, particularly among younger generations, have also reshaped traditional views on family size. As Nguyễn Thị Liên Hương, Deputy Minister of Health, recently noted, there is an “urgent need” to encourage larger families through policy changes, such as easing penalties for having a third child and exploring financial incentives.

The End of the Golden Population Era

Vietnam’s demographic trajectory paints a stark picture. Experts project that the nation’s “golden population” period—a phase of economic advantage driven by a large working-age population—will end by 2039. By 2054, negative population growth could set in, ushering in an era of labour shortages and an ageing society. This shift mirrors challenges faced by regional neighbours like China, South Korea, and Japan, where declining birth rates have already strained economies and social welfare systems.

An ageing population brings with it a host of socio-economic concerns. Fewer working-age individuals mean reduced tax revenues and a shrinking labour force, while the burden of supporting an expanding elderly population grows. Vietnam’s current efforts to bolster reproductive healthcare and services for the elderly are steps in the right direction, but experts argue that more comprehensive measures are needed. Suggestions include reducing the cost of child-rearing, providing housing assistance, and improving access to parental leave—policies that have shown varying degrees of success in other countries.

Globally, 55 governments have implemented pro-natalist policies to combat declining birth rates. South Korea, for instance, has ramped up funding for family support programmes, while Hungary offers lifetime tax exemptions for women with four or more children. While Vietnam’s proposed policy relaxation is a start, whether it will be enough to reverse the trend remains uncertain. As one demographic analyst cautioned, “If financial and social barriers persist, policy changes alone may not encourage larger families.”

Regional Disparities and Gender Imbalances

Beyond the headline figures, Vietnam’s demographic challenges are compounded by regional disparities and lingering gender imbalances. The number of localities with birth rates below replacement level has surged from 22 in 2019 to 32 in 2024, predominantly in the more urbanised southeast and Mekong Delta. Urban areas report a fertility rate of just 1.67 children per woman, compared to 2.08 in rural regions—still below the threshold needed to maintain population stability.

Gender ratios at birth, while improving, remain skewed at 112 boys for every 100 girls. This imbalance, rooted in cultural preferences for male children, poses long-term risks for social cohesion and family structures. The government has prioritised raising awareness on gender equality alongside family planning, but changing deeply ingrained attitudes will take time.

The regional variations also highlight the need for tailored policy responses. While rural northern areas like Hà Giang maintain higher birth rates, urban centres face unique pressures. In Ho Chi Minh City, where the cost of living and career demands often take precedence over family expansion, the fertility rate of 1.39 underscores the urgency of targeted interventions. Analysts suggest that localised incentives, such as childcare subsidies or flexible work arrangements, could make a difference in such areas.

Policy Shifts and Public Sentiment

The proposed relaxation of the two-child policy marks a significant departure from decades of population control measures. Introduced to curb overpopulation, the policy has been a cornerstone of Vietnam’s family planning framework. However, with the birth rate now well below replacement level, the government is rethinking its approach. Alongside allowing couples greater autonomy over family size, efforts are underway to integrate population goals into local development plans and promote the two-child model as an ideal rather than a mandate.

Public sentiment on these changes appears mixed. While some welcome the flexibility, others express concern over the financial and social challenges of raising larger families in an increasingly competitive economy. The government has also launched campaigns to raise awareness about the benefits of family planning and the risks of an ageing population, but whether these will resonate with a generation prioritising individual aspirations over traditional family structures is unclear.

Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities

Vietnam’s demographic crisis is a complex puzzle, requiring a delicate balance of policy innovation, cultural sensitivity, and economic support. Relaxing the two-child policy is a critical first step, but it must be accompanied by practical measures to address the root causes of declining birth rates. Reducing the financial burden of child-rearing, improving work-life balance, and fostering a cultural shift towards valuing larger families could help steer the nation away from the brink of negative population growth.

The experiences of other Asian nations offer both cautionary tales and potential blueprints. Japan’s struggle with an ageing population has led to innovative solutions like robotics in elder care, while South Korea’s heavy investment in pro-natalist policies has yet to yield significant results. Vietnam, with its still-relatively youthful demographic, has a window of opportunity to act before the challenges become insurmountable.

For now, the laughter of children in Ho Chi Minh City’s parks serves as a poignant reminder of what is at stake. If Vietnam is to preserve its economic vitality and social fabric, it must confront its demographic realities head-on. The proposed policy changes are a start, but the road ahead will demand sustained effort, creative solutions, and a willingness to adapt to a rapidly changing world.