Indonesia’s recent decision to lift a sales ban on Apple’s iPhone 16, initially imposed due to the company’s failure to meet local content requirements, has sparked debate about the country’s economic policies and its navigation of an increasingly volatile global landscape under US President Donald Trump’s second term. The reversal, announced late last month by President Prabowo Subianto, comes at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with critics questioning whether Jakarta is bending to external pressures or strategically repositioning itself amid superpower rivalries.
The move to revoke the ban, which had been in place since October 2024 after Apple reportedly failed to comply with Indonesia’s mandatory 35 percent local component (TKDN) requirement, has drawn scrutiny from both domestic stakeholders and international observers. The lack of a detailed public explanation for the policy shift has fuelled speculation about behind-the-scenes negotiations, particularly in light of reported criticism from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. While no direct evidence links the reversal to US pressure, the timing raises questions about Indonesia’s economic autonomy in an era of renewed American assertiveness under Trump’s leadership.
A Domestic Policy with Global Implications
Indonesia, South East Asia’s largest economy, has long sought to bolster its domestic industries through policies like the TKDN requirement, which mandates a certain percentage of locally sourced components in manufactured goods. The initial ban on iPhone 16 sales was seen as a signal of Jakarta’s commitment to protecting local interests against global tech giants. However, the sudden reversal suggests a possible recalibration of priorities, potentially influenced by broader geopolitical dynamics. 
President Prabowo, a former army general who assumed office in October 2024, has repeatedly emphasised Indonesia’s commitment to a “free and active” foreign policy, a doctrine rooted in non-alignment amid great power rivalries. Yet, as global tensions escalate—exacerbated by Trump’s confrontational stance towards allies and adversaries alike—analysts warn that traditional neutrality may no longer suffice. “Indonesia faces a delicate balancing act,” said Dr. Lina Hartono, a political analyst at the University of Indonesia. “Reversing the iPhone ban could be interpreted as a concession to the US, but it risks alienating domestic constituencies who prioritise economic sovereignty.”
The decision also comes against the backdrop of Trump’s broader trade and foreign policy agenda, often described as transactional and self-interested. Since returning to the White House, Trump has intensified rhetoric against countries he perceives as unfair trade partners, while simultaneously alienating traditional US allies through aggressive posturing. If Indonesia’s policy shift is indeed a response to US pressure, it could signal a new phase of vulnerability for ASEAN states navigating Washington’s demands.
Trump’s Shadow Over Global Stability
The iPhone ban reversal is just one piece of a larger puzzle, as Indonesia and other nations grapple with the implications of Trump’s second term. His administration’s approach to international relations—marked by unpredictability and a willingness to challenge even close partners—has deepened global uncertainty. At a recent bilateral meeting in the Oval Office, Trump reportedly blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for initiating the ongoing war with Russia, despite clear evidence of Moscow’s invasion in February 2022. Such statements, coupled with warnings that Zelensky’s resistance risks “gambling with world war three,” underscore the high stakes of Trump’s foreign policy.
Trump’s rhetoric about a potential third world war, voiced during his campaign last year, adds another layer of concern. While he has claimed the US would emerge victorious in such a conflict, many analysts argue that Washington’s global influence is waning, particularly as China’s economic and military power continues to grow. Trump’s apparent strategy to counter Beijing’s rise, including through containment policies, appears to hinge on cooperation with allies—a cooperation he risks undermining with his combative approach.
For Indonesia, the implications of this superpower rivalry are profound. President Prabowo has expressed personal rapport with Trump, which may foster hopes of exemptions from Washington’s more punitive policies. However, as regional observers note, such optimism could be misplaced. “Indonesia must prepare for a world where US policy is driven by short-term gains rather than long-term partnerships,” cautioned Dr. Hartono. “Relying on personal chemistry with Trump is a risky strategy.”
Indonesia’s Non-Alignment Under Strain
Prabowo’s warnings about global conflict predate his presidency. In September 2024, a month before taking office, he highlighted the risk of nuclear warfare and its potential impact on Indonesia, despite the country’s non-involvement in direct conflicts. His administration has since reiterated a commitment to non-alignment, a stance historically central to Indonesia’s foreign policy. Yet, the current geopolitical climate—marked by US-China tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Trump’s unpredictable leadership—presents challenges unlike those of the 20th century’s world wars.
The rise of China as a counterweight to US hegemony further complicates Indonesia’s position. As ASEAN states increasingly turn to Beijing for economic and strategic partnerships, Jakarta faces pressure to align more closely with one superpower or the other. Prabowo’s administration has been advised to adopt a more nuanced approach, including avoiding overt affiliations with groups like BRICS, which Washington views with suspicion, while strengthening diplomatic and economic teams to engage with the US on equal footing.
Economic Autonomy vs. Global Realities
The iPhone ban reversal also highlights the tension between economic nationalism and the realities of global trade. Apple’s initial non-compliance with the TKDN requirement was a point of contention for Indonesian policymakers seeking to foster local manufacturing. By lifting the ban without a clear justification, the government risks perceptions of capitulation to foreign interests—a narrative that could undermine public trust in Prabowo’s leadership.
If the decision was influenced by US pressure, it would not be an isolated incident. Trump’s administration has shown a willingness to use economic leverage to achieve policy outcomes, often disregarding the domestic priorities of other nations. For Indonesia, a country with a history of resisting external interference, such dynamics could provoke domestic backlash. Conversely, if the reversal reflects a strategic choice to prioritise broader trade relations with the US, it may signal a pragmatic shift in Jakarta’s approach to global economics.
A Path Forward for Indonesia
As the world navigates what many describe as a new era of disorder, Indonesia stands at a crossroads. The iPhone ban reversal, while seemingly a minor policy adjustment, encapsulates the broader challenges facing the nation: how to maintain economic sovereignty while engaging with an unpredictable global order; how to uphold non-alignment in an era of polarised superpower rivalries; and how to protect national interests under the shadow of Trump’s America-first agenda.
President Prabowo’s administration will need to tread carefully. Strengthening domestic industries remains a priority, but so too does building resilient international partnerships. Analysts suggest that Jakarta should leverage its position within ASEAN to advocate for collective regional strategies, reducing reliance on any single superpower. At the same time, transparent communication about policy decisions—such as the iPhone ban reversal—will be crucial to maintaining public confidence.
The road ahead is fraught with uncertainty. If Trump’s second term continues to destabilise global norms, as many predict, Indonesia and its neighbours may have little choice but to adapt to a world where traditional alliances and policies no longer hold. For now, the lifting of the iPhone 16 ban serves as a reminder of the intricate dance between domestic priorities and international pressures—a dance that Jakarta must master to secure its place in an increasingly turbulent world.
