The Mekong Delta, often dubbed Vietnam’s rice bowl, is grappling with a worsening crisis as saltwater intrusion intensifies during the dry season, threatening agricultural production and freshwater supplies across one of the country’s most vital regions. According to the latest report from the Việt Nam Mekong River Commission, declining water flows and shifting environmental patterns are exacerbating the phenomenon, prompting urgent calls for local authorities to bolster prevention measures and secure freshwater reserves.
This year’s dry season, spanning late 2024 to mid-2025, is forecast to bring above-average saltwater intrusion, though not reaching the catastrophic levels seen in 2015-16 or 2019-20. With rice farming—a cornerstone of Vietnam’s economy and food security—at stake, the situation underscores broader challenges of climate change, upstream water management, and regional cooperation in the Mekong Basin. As salinity creeps further inland, provinces like Bạc Liêu, Bến Tre, and Kiên Giang face heightened risks, with potential ripple effects on global rice markets.
A Growing Threat to the Delta
Saltwater intrusion, where seawater infiltrates freshwater systems due to low river flows and tidal surges, is a perennial issue in the Mekong Delta during the dry months. However, this year’s projections paint a particularly grim picture. The National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, alongside the Mekong River Commission, predicts that the salinity boundary of one gramme per litre will extend 3-13 kilometres further inland along key rivers such as the Hậu, Tiền, and Vàm Cỏ Tây compared to historical averages. More critically for agriculture, the four grammes per litre boundary—beyond which water becomes unusable for most crops—is expected to push 3-10 kilometres deeper into the Delta. 
At monitoring stations like Tân Châu in Tây Ninh Province and Châu Đốc in An Giang Province, water levels and discharge rates are trending below average. Tân Châu’s peak daily water levels for March are forecast between 1.1 and 1.6 metres, with an average discharge of 3,000-4,500 cubic metres per second—comparable to historical norms but five per cent lower than last year. Châu Đốc, meanwhile, faces a sharper decline, with discharge rates down by 24 per cent from historical averages and six per cent from 2024. Total flow at Châu Đốc is projected to drop by as much as 29 per cent compared to long-term norms, severely limiting freshwater availability.
Phùng Tiến Dũng, head of the Central, Central Highlands, and Southern Hydrological Forecasting Division at the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, warned that peak intrusion at the Mekong’s estuaries and connected rivers like Vàm Cỏ and Cái Lớn is likely to occur in March and April. “The 2024-2025 dry season will see significant challenges,” he noted, urging local communities to stay vigilant with salinity monitoring and adapt mitigation strategies accordingly (Vietnam News, 7 March 2025).
Vulnerable Provinces on the Frontline
The impact is most acute in provinces spanning the Delta’s coastal and riverine zones. Long An, Tiền Giang, Bến Tre, Trà Vinh, Sóc Trăng, Bạc Liêu, Kiên Giang, and Hậu Giang are identified as high-risk areas, where saltwater intrusion threatens not only crops but also drinking water supplies. In Bạc Liêu Province, for instance, farmers are already struggling to balance irrigation needs with encroaching salinity, as captured in recent images of water regulation efforts by the Vietnam News Agency.
Rice, which accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s agricultural output and exports, is particularly sensitive to saline conditions. Prolonged exposure to high salinity can stunt growth, reduce yields, or render fields unusable without costly interventions. For smallholder farmers, who dominate the Delta’s agricultural landscape, such losses can be devastating, pushing households into economic precarity.
Beyond immediate agricultural impacts, the intrusion exacerbates long-term environmental degradation in the Delta. Soil salinisation, erosion, and subsidence—partly driven by over-extraction of groundwater—compound the challenges, creating a vicious cycle that undermines the region’s resilience. With the Delta supporting over 17 million people and contributing nearly half of Vietnam’s rice production, the stakes could not be higher.
Upstream Dynamics and Regional Tensions
The roots of the crisis extend far beyond Vietnam’s borders, tied to water management practices across the Mekong Basin, which spans six countries: China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Upstream reservoirs along China’s Lancang River—currently at 75 per cent capacity—and those in the lower Mekong Basin at 60 per cent, play a pivotal role in regulating flows. Hydroelectric generation, a priority for several riparian states, often reduces downstream water availability during the dry season, intensifying saltwater intrusion in the Delta.
At Kratie Station in Cambodia, March discharge is estimated to fall between 6.4 and 8.2 billion cubic metres, while Tonle Sap Lake—a natural buffer for the Mekong system—holds just 2.2 billion cubic metres, limiting its ability to stabilise flows. These figures reflect a broader trend of fluctuating water levels influenced by upstream dam operations, rainfall variability, and climate change.
Vietnam has repeatedly called for greater regional cooperation through mechanisms like the Mekong River Commission to address these challenges. However, competing national interests—particularly around hydropower development in Laos and China—have hindered progress. Analysts suggest that without coordinated action, downstream communities in Vietnam and Cambodia will bear the brunt of environmental fallout, with saltwater intrusion serving as a stark indicator of systemic imbalances.
If upstream releases were to increase, as some Vietnamese officials have urged, the pressure on the Delta could ease, though such measures remain speculative and unconfirmed. Without verifiable commitments, local authorities are left to manage the crisis with limited resources, focusing on immediate mitigation rather than long-term solutions.
Mitigation Efforts and Local Responses
In response to the forecasts, Vietnamese authorities are ramping up efforts to protect the Delta. Localities have been instructed to optimise saltwater prevention measures, such as constructing temporary barriers and sluice gates to block saline inflows. Freshwater storage is another priority, with communities urged to stockpile resources for farming and domestic use during peak intrusion periods.
In provinces like Bến Tre and Sóc Trăng, innovative approaches—such as shifting to salt-tolerant rice varieties or diversifying into aquaculture—are gaining traction, though scaling these solutions remains a challenge. Farmers in Bạc Liêu have also adopted water regulation techniques, diverting limited freshwater to priority fields while monitoring salinity levels closely.
Yet, these measures are often reactive rather than preventive, addressing symptoms rather than root causes. Experts warn that without investment in infrastructure—such as large-scale desalination or improved irrigation systems—and stronger regional agreements on water sharing, the Delta’s vulnerability will only grow. Climate change, which drives sea level rise and alters rainfall patterns, adds another layer of complexity, with projections suggesting more frequent and severe intrusion events in the coming decades.
Economic and Global Implications
The Mekong Delta’s struggles carry implications far beyond Vietnam. As one of the world’s leading rice exporters, Vietnam plays a critical role in global food supply chains. A significant drop in production due to saltwater intrusion could tighten markets, raise prices, and impact food security in import-dependent regions, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.
Domestically, the economic toll is already evident. Agricultural losses in the Delta translate to reduced incomes for millions of farmers, straining rural economies and potentially driving urban migration. The government faces mounting pressure to balance immediate relief with sustainable development, a task complicated by fiscal constraints and competing policy priorities.
If current trends persist, some estimates suggest that up to 40 per cent of the Delta could become uninhabitable by the end of the century due to salinisation and flooding. While such projections remain unconfirmed and contingent on mitigation efforts, they highlight the urgency of addressing the crisis at both national and regional levels.
A Call for Action
As saltwater creeps deeper into the Mekong Delta this dry season, the region stands at a crossroads. Immediate action—through enhanced water storage, adaptive farming practices, and local resilience—can mitigate the worst impacts for now. But lasting solutions demand a broader reckoning with upstream policies, climate adaptation, and international cooperation.
For the millions who depend on the Delta’s bounty, the coming months will test the limits of endurance. Vietnam’s rice fields, a symbol of national pride and sustenance, are under siege by forces both natural and man-made. Whether they can weather this storm remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the future of the Delta hinges on decisions made far beyond its shores.
