The Philippines is preparing for another challenging dry season in 2025, with the state weather bureau warning of potentially dangerous heat indices that could reach up to 50°C in the coming months. While this year’s dry season is expected to be less intense than the record-breaking heat of 2024, driven by a strong El Niño, authorities are urging the public to remain vigilant as extreme temperatures could still pose significant health risks.
Speaking at a Palace briefing on Monday, Ana Liza Solis, spokesperson and assistant weather services chief of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), highlighted the possibility of high heat indices, particularly towards the end of April and into the first week of May. “Despite a milder forecast compared to last year, it’s still possible that we will have high heat indices, which could reach 48°C or even 50°C,” Solis said in Filipino. She added that maximum daytime temperatures in May could hover between 39.6°C and 39.8°C, creating conditions ripe for heat-related illnesses.
Pagasa has already flagged areas such as San Jose in Occidental Mindoro and Cuyo in Palawan, where heat indices reached up to 41°C on 10 March. These regions are classified under the “extreme caution” category, with the bureau warning that such levels may cause heat cramps and exhaustion. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat, Pagasa cautioned, could also lead to life-threatening heat stroke. 
Health Risks and Public Warnings
The health implications of such high heat indices are a growing concern for Filipinos, particularly in rural and coastal areas where access to cooling and medical facilities may be limited. Heat cramps, often an early sign of heat stress, can escalate to heat exhaustion, characterized by dizziness, nausea, and fatigue. If not addressed, these conditions can progress to heat stroke, a medical emergency where the body’s core temperature rises above 40°C, potentially leading to organ failure or death.
Pagasa’s warnings come as a reminder of the importance of public preparedness during the dry season, which typically spans from March to May in the Philippines. Residents are advised to stay hydrated, avoid prolonged sun exposure during peak hours, and seek shade or air-conditioned spaces whenever possible. Vulnerable groups, including the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions, are particularly at risk and urged to take extra precautions.
A Milder Dry Season, But No Room for Complacency
While the forecast for 2025 offers some relief compared to the scorching temperatures of 2024, Solis emphasized that the risk of extreme heat remains significant. Last year, the Philippines endured unprecedented heat indices due to a strong El Niño phenomenon, a climate pattern that often brings hotter and drier conditions to the region. “Our dry season was hotter last year than it is now because we had a strong El Niño and many record-breaking temperatures,” Solis explained.
This year, the absence of a similarly intense El Niño suggests a less severe dry season overall. However, localized spikes in temperature and humidity could still push heat indices to dangerous levels, particularly in low-lying and urban areas where heat is often trapped by concrete infrastructure. Cities like Manila, with their dense populations and limited green spaces, are especially vulnerable to the urban heat island effect, exacerbating the impact of rising temperatures.
Broader Climate Context
The Philippines, an archipelago nation of over 7,000 islands, is on the frontlines of climate change, facing not only extreme heat but also intensifying typhoons, rising sea levels, and unpredictable rainfall patterns. The annual dry season, while a natural part of the country’s tropical climate, has become increasingly severe in recent decades, with heat indices regularly surpassing thresholds deemed safe for human health.
Experts note that global warming is likely contributing to these trends, as rising greenhouse gas emissions trap more heat in the atmosphere, amplifying temperature extremes. For a country where millions rely on agriculture and outdoor labour for their livelihoods, such conditions pose not only health risks but also economic challenges. Crops wither under relentless heat, while workers in construction, fishing, and farming face heightened risks of heat-related illnesses.
Regional Variations and Preparedness
The impact of high heat indices varies across the Philippines’ diverse regions. In Occidental Mindoro and Palawan, where Pagasa recorded a heat index of 41°C on 10 March, local authorities are already stepping up efforts to educate communities about heat safety. Public health campaigns are emphasizing the importance of recognizing early signs of heat stress and seeking medical help when needed.
In urban centres like Metro Manila, the challenge is compounded by overcrowding and limited access to cooling resources for low-income households. While wealthier residents may retreat to air-conditioned malls or homes, many Filipinos lack such options, relying instead on makeshift solutions like handheld fans or damp cloths to cope with the heat.
Looking Ahead
As the dry season progresses, Pagasa will continue to monitor weather patterns and issue updates on heat indices and temperature forecasts. Solis underscored the importance of public cooperation in mitigating the risks of extreme heat, urging Filipinos to heed weather advisories and take proactive steps to protect themselves and their families.
For now, the message from authorities is clear: while the 2025 dry season may not match the ferocity of last year’s El Niño-driven heatwave, the potential for dangerously high temperatures remains. With heat indices possibly climbing to 50°C in the coming weeks, the Philippines faces another test of resilience in an era of escalating climate challenges.
