Former President Duterte’s ICC Arrest Sparks Tension in the Philippines

The arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on charges of crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court (ICC) has placed the country on edge, with security forces on high alert and supporters rallying in his defence. While the military and police insist the situation remains stable, the unprecedented detention of a former head of state on international charges has reignited debates over sovereignty, accountability, and the legacy of Duterte’s controversial tenure.

A Historic Arrest

Duterte, whose presidency from 2016 to 2022 was marked by a brutal war on drugs that drew global condemnation, was taken into custody on Tuesday before being flown to The Hague, Netherlands, aboard a chartered Gulfstream G550 jet. The ICC, headquartered in The Hague, is investigating allegations of extrajudicial killings and other human rights abuses linked to his administration’s policies. This marks the first time a former Philippine president has been arrested on such charges, a move that has polarised public opinion and raised questions about the country’s relationship with international justice mechanisms.

Prior to his departure, Duterte’s supporters gathered outside Villamor Air Base in Pasay City, near Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport, where he was held under police custody after arriving from Hong Kong. Images circulating on social media, including one released by Senator Bong Go, show Duterte in conversation with his former executive secretary, Salvador Medialdea, aboard the jet, appearing composed despite the gravity of the situation.

The Philippine National Police (PNP) raised its alert status to “heightened” nationwide at 5 p.m. on Tuesday as a precautionary measure. PNP chief General Rommel Marbil assured the public that the situation was “generally peaceful” and “under control,” with personnel deployed strategically to maintain security. On Wednesday, officers were visible near Edsa Shrine in Manila, a historic site often associated with public protests, in anticipation of demonstrations by Duterte loyalists.

Military and Police Emphasise Stability

Amidst swirling rumours of unrest, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and PNP have sought to project an image of calm professionalism. AFP spokesperson Colonel Francel Margareth Padilla issued a statement dismissing “speculations of military action or unrest” as baseless, emphasising that the military remains “strictly professional and nonpartisan.” She clarified that Duterte’s arrest falls under the purview of law enforcement, not the military, and reiterated the AFP’s commitment to national security and the democratic chain of command.

“We call on all Filipinos to exercise restraint and uphold the rule of law. Let us prioritise unity and allow the legal processes to unfold,” Padilla urged, adding that the military was in a “high state of readiness” to respond to any threats to peace and order.

Similarly, Philippine Army chief Lieutenant General Roy Galido underscored the military’s focus on its core mission of defending national sovereignty. “We remain very professional and follow the chain of command,” he said, distancing the army from the political implications of the arrest.

The PNP echoed this stance, noting that it was closely monitoring developments and prepared for any eventuality. Yet, the visible deployment of forces and the heightened alert status suggest an underlying tension, as authorities brace for potential backlash from Duterte’s staunch supporters, particularly in his political stronghold of Davao City in the southern Philippines.

Political and Legal Ramifications

Duterte’s arrest is not merely a legal matter but a deeply political one, touching on long-standing debates over the Philippines’ engagement with the ICC. The country withdrew from the court in 2019 under Duterte’s leadership, following criticism of his drug war policies, which human rights groups estimate resulted in thousands of deaths, many under questionable circumstances. Despite the withdrawal, the ICC maintains jurisdiction over alleged crimes committed during the period of membership, a legal nuance that has frustrated Duterte and his allies.

The Philippine Supreme Court recently refused a request for an immediate temporary restraining order (TRO) against government cooperation with the ICC, a decision that paved the way for Duterte’s transfer to The Hague. Meanwhile, some House representatives have argued that the arrest does not signal political instability, framing it as a lawful process. However, international rights groups have seized the moment to call on current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to rejoin the ICC, viewing Duterte’s detention as a step toward accountability for past abuses.

The arrest also raises questions about the domestic political landscape. Duterte, despite leaving office, retains significant influence, particularly in Mindanao, where his hardline policies resonated with many who prioritised security over civil liberties. His daughter, Sara Duterte, currently serves as Vice President, adding a layer of complexity to the government’s response. While President Marcos has not publicly commented on the arrest at the time of writing, analysts suggest that balancing international pressure with domestic political sensitivities will be a delicate task for his administration.

Public Sentiment and Protests

Public reaction to Duterte’s arrest has been sharply divided. Supporters view him as a strong leader who tackled crime and corruption with an iron fist, often citing safer streets as evidence of his effectiveness. Critics, however, see his tenure as a dark chapter marked by impunity, with families of alleged drug war victims still seeking justice. The gatherings outside Villamor Air Base and planned protests at Edsa Shrine reflect this polarisation, with the potential for further unrest if legal proceedings in The Hague are perceived as biased or politically motivated.

Duterte himself has reportedly taken responsibility for his actions, with local media quoting him as saying he is “responsible” as he was taken into ICC custody. This admission, if verified, could have significant implications for his defence strategy and the broader narrative surrounding his presidency.

International Context and Speculative Impacts

Beyond the Philippines, Duterte’s arrest underscores the ICC’s role in holding leaders accountable, even as it faces criticism for perceived selectivity in its prosecutions. If the case progresses, it may set a precedent for other leaders accused of similar violations, though legal experts caution that convictions at the ICC are notoriously difficult to secure due to the high burden of proof and political complexities. Such an outcome remains speculative at this stage, with no certainty regarding the strength of the evidence or the court’s final ruling.

Domestically, if protests escalate or if Duterte’s allies mobilise significant opposition, the arrest could strain the Marcos administration’s ability to maintain stability while cooperating with international bodies. Conversely, if handled with restraint, it might bolster the Philippines’ image as a nation committed to the rule of law, potentially improving relations with Western governments critical of Duterte’s human rights record. These scenarios, however, hinge on unconfirmed developments and must be viewed with caution, as there is no evidence yet of widespread unrest or a definitive shift in foreign policy.

A Nation at a Crossroads

As Rodrigo Duterte faces the ICC in The Hague, the Philippines stands at a crossroads between reckoning with its past and navigating an uncertain political future. The arrest of a former president on charges of crimes against humanity is a historic moment, one that tests the resilience of the country’s democratic institutions and its commitment to justice, both at home and on the global stage. For now, security forces remain vigilant, urging calm as legal processes unfold thousands of miles away.

While the immediate situation appears stable, the coming days and weeks will reveal whether this arrest unites or further divides a nation still grappling with the legacy of Duterte’s rule. For many Filipinos, the stakes could not be higher, as they watch to see if accountability will prevail over impunity—or if the ghosts of the past will continue to haunt the present.