Vietnam is facing a demographic crisis as its birth rate has plummeted to a historic low, dropping to just 1.91 children per woman in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to sustain a stable population. In response, the government is proposing a series of policy reforms, including extending maternity leave for women with a second child and offering housing support for families in industrial zones. These measures, part of a draft population law being compiled by the Ministry of Health, aim to reverse a trend that experts warn could have profound social and economic consequences if left unchecked.
The Việt Nam Population Authority, under the Ministry of Health, has put forward a proposal to extend maternity leave from six to seven months for female workers giving birth to a second child. Additionally, the authority seeks to provide support for women with two children working in industrial parks, export processing zones, and regions with particularly low birth rates, helping them access social housing through rental or purchase schemes. These initiatives are designed to alleviate the financial and logistical burdens that deter many couples from expanding their families.
A Demographic Decline with Deep Roots
Vietnam’s birth rate has been on a downward trajectory for several years, falling from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 1.91 in 2024, according to official figures. Lê Thanh Dũng, director of the Việt Nam Population Authority, has warned that this decline is expected to continue without significant intervention. “This is the lowest rate in our history,” he noted, highlighting the urgency of addressing the issue to prevent long-term challenges such as an ageing population and shrinking workforce. 
The causes of this decline are multifaceted. Rapid urbanisation, rising living costs, and changing societal norms have all played a role. Many young couples face intense financial pressures, with expenses such as housing, education, and healthcare weighing heavily on their decisions about starting or expanding a family. Inflation has exacerbated these concerns, making the prospect of raising children seem increasingly out of reach for some.
Dr Mai Xuân Phương, deputy director of the authority’s Department of Communications and Education, pointed to the additional burden on women, who often juggle professional responsibilities with domestic duties. “Women are still stressed with the burden of being wives and mothers while also working and taking care of housework,” she said. Postpartum challenges, including psychological stress and health issues such as depression, further compound the difficulties faced by new mothers.
Policy Shifts to Encourage Larger Families
The draft population law reflects a broader shift in Vietnam’s approach to family planning. Historically, the country enforced strict policies to limit population growth, including disciplinary measures for Communist Party members who had more than two children. However, with the birth rate now below replacement level, such restrictions are being reconsidered. Lê Thanh Dũng confirmed that regulations penalising Party members for having a third child or more are “no longer suitable for the current reality.” The decision to lift these disciplinary actions is seen as a potential short-term boost to the birth rate, though Dũng cautioned that the impact may not be significant without broader support mechanisms.
Beyond removing penalties, the government is promoting proactive measures to encourage childbirth. A programme approved by the Prime Minister aims to adjust fertility rates by region, encouraging men and women to marry before the age of 30 and have children early. Women are particularly incentivised to have a second child before turning 35. These efforts are underpinned by a recognition that individual choice must be respected—under the draft law, couples and individuals have the right to decide freely on the number of children, timing, and spacing of births based on their personal circumstances.
Learning from Global Examples
Vietnam is not alone in grappling with declining birth rates, and policymakers are looking to other nations for inspiration. Professor Nguyễn Đình Cử, former director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues at the National Economics University, highlighted South Korea’s family-friendly policies as a potential model. In South Korea, female workers are entitled to 90 days of maternity leave, while male workers can take ten days off when their wives give birth. Parents are also allowed up to a year of leave to care for children under eight, with flexible timing to suit their needs.
Professor Cử advocated for similar flexibility in Vietnam, proposing diversified paid leave regimes for pregnancy, childbirth, and child illness. He also suggested that couples with young children should benefit from adaptable working conditions, such as reduced hours, late starts, early finishes, unpaid leave, or remote work options. Beyond workplace policies, he called for cost-sharing schemes involving the state, families, and society to offset the rising expenses of child-rearing. These could include lump-sum allowances, annual subsidies, tax reductions, or tuition fee exemptions.
“Raising children cannot be the responsibility of the family alone, especially when the costs are increasingly large compared to the incomes of many young couples,” Cử argued. He emphasised that children are not just a family’s asset but a societal resource, providing the human capital needed for future economic growth and stability.
Challenges and Speculative Outcomes
While the proposed policies mark a significant shift in Vietnam’s approach to population challenges, their effectiveness remains uncertain. If implemented, extending maternity leave and offering housing support may ease some of the immediate burdens on families, potentially encouraging more couples to have a second child. However, as Lê Thanh Dũng noted, such measures might only yield modest gains in the short term. Deeper structural issues—such as gender inequality in domestic responsibilities, economic insecurity, and cultural shifts towards smaller families—could continue to suppress birth rates unless addressed holistically.
There is also the question of funding and scalability. If housing subsidies and extended leave policies are rolled out nationwide, the financial burden on the state could be substantial, particularly in a context of competing budgetary priorities. Moreover, while removing disciplinary measures for Party members with larger families may signal a cultural shift, it is unclear whether this will translate into meaningful change among the broader population. Experts caution that without robust public awareness campaigns and tangible incentives, many couples may remain hesitant to have more children.
A Race Against Time
Vietnam’s demographic crisis is a microcosm of a broader trend across East and Southeast Asia, where rapid development and modernisation have often come at the expense of population growth. An ageing population looms on the horizon, with fewer young workers to support an expanding elderly cohort. This could strain social welfare systems, slow economic growth, and exacerbate labour shortages in key industries—a scenario that policymakers are keen to avoid.
The draft population law and associated programmes represent a critical first step in addressing these challenges, but they are not a silver bullet. Sustaining a replacement fertility rate will require a multi-pronged approach, combining financial incentives, workplace reforms, and societal shifts to create an environment where having children is both desirable and feasible. As Dr Mai Xuân Phương observed, many Vietnamese couples still aspire to have two children, but life’s practicalities often stand in the way. Bridging that gap will be the true test of the government’s strategy.
For now, Vietnam stands at a crossroads. The coming years will reveal whether these policy overhauls can stem the tide of declining birth rates or whether deeper, systemic changes are needed to secure the country’s demographic future. As the nation watches and waits, the stakes could not be higher—not just for families, but for the very fabric of Vietnamese society.
