Vietnam Grapples with Declining Birth Rates Amid Policy Reforms

Vietnam, a nation of over 101 million people, is confronting a demographic crisis as its birth rate continues to plummet below the replacement level needed to sustain its population. With a total fertility rate of just 1.91 children per woman—well under the 2.1 threshold—the country risks entering an ageing population stage within a decade, a shift that could exacerbate labour shortages and strain economic growth. In response, the government is rolling out a series of policy reforms aimed at encouraging childbirth, but experts and citizens alike question whether these measures address the root causes of the decline, particularly in urban and industrial areas where financial and career pressures loom large.

A Demographic Tipping Point

The latest figures from Vietnam’s General Statistics Office paint a stark picture: the nation’s population stood at an estimated 101.3 million last year, but the downward trajectory of its fertility rate threatens long-term stability. Experts warn that without urgent intervention, Vietnam could face a future where a shrinking workforce struggles to support an expanding elderly population. This challenge is especially acute in major cities like Ho Chi Minh City and industrial zones such as Sài Đồng B, where the high cost of child-rearing and intense work demands deter many couples from starting or expanding families.

The implications are profound. A declining birth rate not only risks labour shortages but also undermines the social and economic fabric of a country that has relied on a youthful demographic to fuel its rapid development over recent decades. As Professor Nguyễn Đình Cử, former director of the Institute for Population and Social Issues, noted, children are not just a family’s responsibility but a vital contribution to societal progress. He argues that the state and society must share the burden of child-rearing to reverse the current trend.

Policy Push to Encourage Childbirth

In a bid to stem the decline, Vietnam’s leadership is introducing a range of incentives. The Politburo has issued a directive ensuring that Party members who have a third child will not face disciplinary action, a significant cultural shift in a country where population control policies once dominated. Additionally, the Ministry of Health has proposed empowering couples to decide the number and timing of their children based on personal circumstances, a departure from more prescriptive past approaches.

Among the most discussed reforms is the extension of maternity leave. Currently, female workers are entitled to six months of leave, covering both pre- and post-natal periods. The Ministry of Health has suggested increasing this to seven months for women giving birth to a second child, alongside support for social housing rentals or purchases. Director of the Department of Population, Lê Thanh Dũng, has indicated that these proposals will form part of a draft Law on Population, which also aims to address gender imbalances at birth and improve overall population quality.

The government is also exploring ways to support businesses during periods of extended maternity leave, recognising the operational challenges faced by employers. Nguyễn Hoài Nam, a business owner at TMN Trading Joint Stock Company, welcomes the idea of longer maternity leave to allow mothers more time with their newborns but cautions that without mechanisms for temporary recruitment or personnel adjustments, companies could struggle to maintain production. He calls for balanced solutions that protect both workers’ rights and business stability.

Voices from the Ground

While the proposed policies have sparked hope, they have also revealed deep-seated concerns among workers. Nguyễn Thị Lan, a worker at Sài Đồng B Industrial Park, acknowledges the benefits of extended maternity leave for both mother and child, particularly in the critical early months. However, she worries about the financial strain of taking additional time off without adequate income support. “Family life will be difficult if there’s no financial help during that extra month,” she said.

Similarly, Phạm Thanh Thuỷ, another worker at the same industrial park, supports the idea of an extra month off but fears the career repercussions. She expressed concerns about being assigned less demanding roles, missing out on promotions, or even losing her job if she is on a short-term contract. These anxieties highlight a broader tension: while policies aim to encourage childbirth, they must also address the economic and professional insecurities that deter many from starting families.

A Comprehensive Approach Needed

Experts argue that while the proposed reforms are a step in the right direction, they fall short of addressing the multifaceted barriers to higher birth rates. Financial pressure, particularly in urban centres where the cost of raising children is exorbitant, remains a primary obstacle. Even with existing measures like tuition fee exemptions for students, families face numerous other expenses that the state has yet to tackle comprehensively.

Professor Cử points to the Politburo’s decision to shield Party members with a third child from discipline as a pivotal move, one that could slow the declining birth rate and pave the way for broader regulatory adjustments. However, he and other analysts stress the need for a holistic strategy. This includes not only financial incentives but also improvements to workplace environments and social welfare systems. Learning from international examples, they argue, could provide Vietnam with a blueprint for success—countries like Sweden and France have implemented robust family support systems combining generous leave policies, childcare subsidies, and workplace protections with notable results.

Regional disparities also complicate the picture. Birth rates are plummeting fastest in large cities and industrial zones, where work-life balance is often unattainable for many couples. Tailored policies that account for these differences—perhaps through targeted subsidies or flexible work arrangements in high-pressure areas—could prove more effective than a one-size-fits-all approach. Additionally, the government must ensure that businesses, especially those with significant female workforces, receive support to manage the operational impacts of extended leave periods.

Balancing Act for the Future

Vietnam stands at a demographic crossroads. The proposed policies signal a recognition of the urgency of the situation, but their success hinges on implementation and the ability to harmonise the needs of workers, businesses, and the state. As experts advocate for synchronous adjustments, the government faces the challenge of crafting a framework that not only encourages childbirth but also alleviates the financial and social pressures that deter it.

For many Vietnamese families, the birth of a child represents both a personal joy and a societal contribution. Yet, as Professor Cử aptly noted, this should not be a burden borne by families alone. The state and society must collaborate to create an environment where couples feel secure in their decision to have children, without sacrificing their economic stability or career aspirations. Whether Vietnam can achieve this delicate balance remains to be seen, but the stakes could not be higher. A failure to act decisively risks a future where an ageing population overshadows the nation’s hard-won progress, while success could secure a vibrant, sustainable demographic foundation for generations to come.

With the draft Law on Population on the horizon, all eyes are on Hanoi to see if these reforms will deliver the comprehensive support needed. For now, the dialogue between policymakers, businesses, and citizens continues, as Vietnam grapples with a crisis that could redefine its future.