Philippines Faces Rising Heat Risks Amid Climate Change Crisis

The Philippines has emerged as one of Asia’s most affected nations by extreme heat linked to climate change, with nearly 200,000 Filipinos exposed to dangerous temperatures over the past three months, according to a recent report by Climate Central, a nonprofit scientific organisation. Ranking third in the region for “unusual heat” driven by human-induced climate change, the country endured 74 days of elevated temperatures, highlighting a growing public health crisis amid global warming.

The Climate Central study, released on Wednesday, utilises the Climate Shift Index (CSI), a metric that measures the influence of climate change on local daily temperatures. At CSI level 2 or higher, temperatures are deemed significantly more likely to result from climate change. For the Philippines, this translated to over two months of intensified heat between December 2024 and February 2025, a period when nearly 554 million people across Asia experienced similar conditions for at least a third of the season.

Manila, the nation’s bustling capital and one of the world’s 38 megacities with populations exceeding 10 million, was particularly hard-hit. The city recorded 69 days of temperatures at CSI level 2 or above, placing it third globally among urban centres most affected by climate-driven heat, behind Lagos in Nigeria and Tamil Nadu in India. For many residents, this has meant school closures, disrupted daily routines, and heightened health risks, as images of parents shielding children from the scorching sun in Manila have underscored the human toll of these conditions.

A Regional and Global Crisis

The Philippines is not alone in grappling with this escalating challenge. Across Asia, 10 countries recorded over 30 days of extreme heat influenced by climate change, with Brunei Darussalam topping the list at 83 days, followed by the Maldives at 81. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste each logged 72 days, while Malaysia, Singapore, Yemen, and Myanmar also featured prominently in the report. Globally, the effects of burning fossil fuels—coal, oil, and methane gas—have been stark, with billions facing increased heat-related health risks, according to Climate Central.

In the Philippines, the data paints a particularly concerning picture for vulnerable populations. Of the country’s 116 million inhabitants, almost 200,000 were exposed to at least 30 days of “risky heat”—defined as temperatures hotter than 90 percent of those recorded locally between 1991 and 2020. Such conditions, the report warns, significantly elevate the likelihood of heat-related illnesses, particularly for the elderly, children, and outdoor workers. The country also ranked eighth in Asia for the number of risky heat days directly attributable to climate change, with two such days in the last three months.

Timor-Leste led the region with 22 risky heat days added by climate change, followed by Indonesia with 16. Other nations, including Sri Lanka, Singapore, and Malaysia, also reported notable increases, while Cambodia recorded just one additional day. These disparities reflect not only varying climatic conditions but also differences in urban infrastructure, public health preparedness, and economic capacity to mitigate heat impacts.

Health and Societal Impacts

The implications of sustained extreme heat extend far beyond discomfort. In Manila, schools suspended classes on multiple occasions in early March as temperatures soared, with parents and children forced to adapt to hazardous conditions. The Climate Central report highlights that heat-related health risks rise sharply when temperatures exceed local historical thresholds, a phenomenon now increasingly common due to human-driven climate change.

For the nearly 200,000 Filipinos identified as particularly exposed, the risks include heatstroke, dehydration, and exacerbation of pre-existing medical conditions. Outdoor workers, such as street vendors and construction labourers, face disproportionate challenges, often lacking access to shade or adequate hydration. In rural areas, farmers contend with reduced agricultural yields as heat stresses crops and livestock, compounding economic pressures in communities already vulnerable to climate impacts.

Public health experts have long warned that rising temperatures could strain healthcare systems, particularly in densely populated urban centres like Manila. Emergency rooms may see spikes in heat-related admissions, while government resources are stretched to provide relief measures such as cooling centres or public water distribution. If unaddressed, these challenges could deepen existing inequalities, as wealthier residents turn to private solutions like air conditioning, while poorer communities bear the brunt of unrelenting heat.

The Science Behind the Heat

Climate Central’s methodology offers a granular look at how human activity fuels these temperature spikes. By analysing data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the study assessed 220 countries and territories, alongside 940 cities worldwide. Population figures were sourced from Encyclopedia Britannica and NASA’s Gridded Population of the World collection, ensuring a robust foundation for its findings.

The CSI system, central to the report, quantifies the extent to which daily temperatures deviate from historical norms due to climate change. At level 2 or higher, the likelihood that such temperatures result from human-induced factors—primarily the burning of fossil fuels—becomes statistically significant. For Manila’s 69 days at this threshold, the data suggests a direct link to global greenhouse gas emissions, a connection that scientists argue demands urgent policy attention.

Globally, the past three months have seen similar patterns, with megacities across continents enduring climate-driven heat. Manila’s ranking as third-most affected among these urban giants underscores the intersection of rapid urbanisation and environmental degradation. High population density, coupled with limited green spaces and extensive concrete infrastructure, creates “urban heat islands” that trap warmth and exacerbate temperature rises.

Looking Ahead: Challenges and Solutions

As the Philippines grapples with this new normal, the path forward requires a multifaceted approach. Immediate measures, such as public awareness campaigns on heat safety and expanded access to cooling facilities, could mitigate short-term risks. In the longer term, urban planning must prioritise green infrastructure—parks, tree cover, and reflective building materials—to combat heat islands in cities like Manila.

Nationally, reducing reliance on fossil fuels aligns with global calls for decarbonisation, though economic constraints and energy demands pose significant hurdles. The Philippines has committed to renewable energy targets under international agreements like the Paris Accord, but progress remains uneven. If investments in solar, wind, and other sustainable sources accelerate, the country could reduce its carbon footprint, potentially curbing future temperature spikes—though such outcomes remain speculative and depend on coordinated policy efforts.

Regionally, collaboration with ASEAN neighbours offers another avenue for action. Countries like Singapore and Malaysia, also affected by extreme heat, have implemented innovative heat mitigation strategies, from urban cooling technologies to public health initiatives. Sharing best practices could bolster resilience across South East Asia, though political and economic disparities within the bloc may complicate unified responses.

A Call for Global Accountability

The Climate Central report serves as a stark reminder that climate change is not a distant threat but a present crisis with tangible human costs. For the Philippines, the past three months have exposed the fragility of daily life under rising temperatures, with nearly 200,000 citizens directly at risk. Manila’s struggle mirrors that of other global megacities, where urbanisation and environmental neglect collide with devastating effect.

Addressing this crisis demands accountability at all levels—local, national, and international. While Filipino policymakers must adapt to protect vulnerable populations, the burden of emissions reduction falls heavily on industrialised nations historically responsible for the bulk of greenhouse gases. Without concerted global action, the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events will likely escalate, with communities in the Global South, including the Philippines, bearing disproportionate impacts.

For now, as parents shield their children from the sun and schools shutter their doors, the immediate priority is survival. But the broader challenge—tackling the root causes of climate-driven heat—remains unresolved, a test of humanity’s ability to adapt and act before the thermometer climbs even higher.