Philippines Faces Rising Heat Risks Amid Climate Change Crisis

The Philippines has emerged as one of Asia’s most vulnerable nations to extreme heat driven by climate change, with nearly 200,000 Filipinos exposed to dangerous temperatures over the past three months, according to a new report by Climate Central, a nonprofit scientific organisation. Ranking third in the region for “unusual heat” attributed to human-induced climate change, the country endured 74 days of elevated temperatures at Climate Shift Index (CSI) level 2 or higher between December 2024 and February 2025. As schools close and communities grapple with health risks, the findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive measures in a warming world.

The CSI, a metric developed by Climate Central to measure the influence of climate change on local temperatures, reveals the stark impact of burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and methane gas. The higher the CSI level, the more likely it is that climate change has contributed to the heat. For the Philippines, this translates to 69 days of extreme heat in Manila alone—one of 11 global megacities identified as severely affected—placing it behind only Lagos, Nigeria (89 days), and Tamil Nadu, India (81 days). Across Asia, over 554 million people in 10 countries faced similar conditions for at least a third of the season, with Brunei Darussalam (83 days) and the Maldives (81 days) topping the list.

A Growing Threat to Health and Livelihoods

The implications of this heat are far from abstract. In early March, images of parents shielding children from the scorching sun with school bags in Manila captured the human toll as classes were suspended due to unbearable conditions. Climate Central’s report highlights that nearly 45 million people across Asia experienced at least 30 “risky heat” days—defined as temperatures hotter than 90% of those recorded locally between 1991 and 2020—directly linked to climate change. In the Philippines, two such days were recorded, placing it eighth among Asian nations for this metric, behind Timor-Leste (22 days) and Indonesia (16 days).

“Heat-related health risks rise when temperatures climb above this local threshold,” the report warns. For a nation of 116 million, where nearly 200,000 individuals were exposed to these conditions, the strain on public health systems and daily life is palpable. Vulnerable populations, including children, the elderly, and outdoor workers, face heightened risks of heatstroke and dehydration, while economic impacts loom as productivity wanes under oppressive conditions.

Climate Change in the Asian Context

The Philippines is not alone in confronting this crisis. Climate Central’s analysis of 220 countries and 940 cities, using data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, paints a grim picture of a region under siege by rising temperatures. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste each recorded 72 days at CSI level 2 or higher, while Malaysia (63 days) and Singapore (56 days) also featured prominently. The report notes that human-caused climate change has “increased heat-related health risks for billions and made extreme heat events more likely around the globe.”

Manila’s inclusion among the world’s 38 megacities hardest hit by climate-driven heat is particularly concerning. With a population exceeding 10 million, the capital’s dense urban environment exacerbates the “heat island” effect, where concrete and asphalt trap warmth, intensifying already extreme conditions. This dynamic is mirrored across other Asian urban centres, where rapid urbanisation often outpaces infrastructure for climate resilience.

The Science Behind the Heat

At the heart of Climate Central’s findings is the role of greenhouse gas emissions in altering weather patterns. The burning of fossil fuels—still a cornerstone of energy production in many Asian nations, including the Philippines—releases carbon dioxide and methane, trapping heat in the atmosphere. The result is not just warmer average temperatures but an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events. The CSI system quantifies this shift, offering a clear link between human activity and local climate impacts.

For the Philippines, a tropical archipelago already prone to natural disasters like typhoons and flooding, the added burden of heatwaves compounds existing vulnerabilities. Coastal communities, reliant on fishing and agriculture, face disrupted livelihoods as temperatures disrupt ecosystems and reduce crop yields. Meanwhile, the government’s capacity to respond is stretched thin, with resources often diverted to disaster recovery rather than proactive adaptation.

Policy and Adaptation: A Race Against Time

The Climate Central report serves as a wake-up call for policymakers in the Philippines and beyond. While the country has made strides in renewable energy adoption and disaster preparedness—ranking among the most proactive in Southeast Asia for climate action—gaps remain. Urban planning in cities like Manila often lacks sufficient green spaces or cooling infrastructure, while rural areas struggle with access to early warning systems for heat events.

Experts argue that adaptation must be prioritised alongside mitigation. This includes investing in heat-resistant infrastructure, such as shaded public spaces and energy-efficient buildings, as well as public health campaigns to educate communities on heat stress prevention. At a regional level, cooperation through frameworks like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could facilitate knowledge-sharing on best practices, from Singapore’s urban cooling initiatives to Malaysia’s reforestation efforts.

Yet, the scale of the challenge demands global action. The Philippines, like many developing nations, contributes a fraction of historical greenhouse gas emissions compared to industrialised countries. Calls for climate justice—where wealthier nations shoulder greater responsibility for funding adaptation and loss-and-damage initiatives—have grown louder at international forums like the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP). If current trends continue, speculative projections suggest that heat-related disruptions could cost Southeast Asian economies billions annually by mid-century, though such estimates remain unconfirmed pending further research.

Community Resilience Amid Crisis

On the ground, Filipinos are already adapting in small but significant ways. In Manila, schools have adjusted schedules to avoid peak heat hours, while community organisations distribute water and provide temporary shelters during extreme weather. These grassroots efforts, though vital, are no substitute for systemic change. The government’s National Adaptation Plan, which aims to integrate climate resilience into local governance, offers a framework, but implementation remains uneven across regions.

The cultural context of the Philippines—where community solidarity, or “bayanihan,” is a cherished value—plays a crucial role in coping with climate impacts. Families and neighbourhoods band together to support the most vulnerable, sharing resources and knowledge. Yet, as heat events grow more frequent, there is a risk that even this resilience could be overwhelmed without sustained policy support.

Looking Ahead: A Warmer Future?

Climate Central’s findings are a stark reminder that the effects of climate change are no longer a distant threat but a present reality. For the Philippines, ranking third in Asia for unusual heat is not just a statistic but a lived experience for millions. The question now is whether the momentum for change—both locally and globally—can match the accelerating pace of warming.

If current emission trajectories hold, scientists caution that extreme heat days could become the norm rather than the exception in tropical regions like Southeast Asia. While such predictions are speculative and depend on variables like global policy shifts, the direction is clear: without aggressive action to curb emissions and bolster resilience, the health, economic, and social costs will mount. For now, no definitive evidence confirms the worst-case scenarios, but the data from the past three months offers a sobering preview.

As Manila swelters and rural communities brace for the next heatwave, the message from Climate Central is unequivocal: the time to act is now. For the nearly 200,000 Filipinos already exposed to climate-driven heat risks, and the millions more at risk in the years ahead, adaptation and mitigation are not just policy goals but matters of survival.