Philippines Grapples with Extreme Heat as Climate Change Impacts Intensify

The Philippines has been identified as one of the most affected countries in Asia by “unusual heat” driven by climate change, ranking third in the region with 74 days of significantly elevated temperatures over the past three months, according to a recent report by Climate Central, a nonprofit scientific organisation. This extreme heat, which scientists attribute to human-induced climate change, has exposed nearly 200,000 Filipinos to heightened health risks, particularly in the capital, Manila, where temperatures have reached alarming levels.

The report, released on Wednesday, highlights the growing influence of climate change on daily temperatures across the globe, with the Philippines experiencing conditions classified as Climate Shift Index (CSI) level 2 or higher for over two months between December 2024 and February 2025. The CSI, a metric developed by Climate Central, measures the extent to which local temperatures are influenced by climate change, with higher levels indicating a stronger link to human activity such as the burning of coal, oil, and methane gas.

A Region Under Strain

Across Asia, the impact of this heat has been staggering. Climate Central’s analysis reveals that nearly 554 million people in 10 countries endured at least 30 days of temperatures strongly influenced by climate change during the same period. Brunei Darussalam topped the list with 83 days at CSI level 2 or higher, followed by the Maldives with 81 days. The Philippines, alongside Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste, each recorded over 70 days of extreme heat, underscoring the regional scale of the crisis.

In the Philippines, the effects are particularly acute in densely populated urban centres like Manila, which is among 11 global megacities—defined as cities with populations exceeding 10 million—that have faced prolonged periods of climate-driven heat. Manila recorded 69 days at CSI level 2 or higher, placing it third among megacities, behind Lagos in Nigeria (89 days) and Tamil Nadu in India (81 days). For residents, this has meant not just discomfort but a tangible threat to health and livelihoods, with school closures and public health warnings becoming increasingly common.

“Heat-related health risks rise when temperatures climb above local thresholds,” the Climate Central report noted, defining “risky heat” as temperatures hotter than 90 percent of those observed in a given area between 1991 and 2020. The Philippines recorded two such days in the last three months, ranking eighth in Asia for risky heat days added by climate change. While this figure is lower than Timor-Leste’s 22 days or Indonesia’s 16, it remains a stark reminder of the escalating dangers faced by vulnerable populations.

Human Cost of Rising Temperatures

The human toll of these conditions cannot be overstated. Across Asia, over 45 million people have been exposed to at least 30 days of risky heat directly attributable to climate change, with the Philippines contributing nearly 200,000 to that number out of its total population of 116 million. These figures, drawn from population estimates by Encyclopedia Britannica and NASA’s Gridded Population of the World collection, paint a sobering picture of the scale at which climate change is reshaping daily life.

In Manila, the impact is visible on the streets. On 3 March, images captured parents shielding children from the scorching sun with school bags as classes were suspended due to the heat. Such scenes are becoming a recurring reality as temperatures soar beyond historical norms, driven by global warming. The suspension of schools is just one of many disruptions, with outdoor workers, the elderly, and those without access to cooling systems facing the greatest risks of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses.

The Science Behind the Heat

Climate Central’s findings are based on data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, covering 220 countries and territories as well as 940 cities worldwide. The organisation’s report underscores that the primary driver of this extreme heat is human activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels. “During the past three months, the effects of human-induced climate change were evident in most regions of the world, particularly in the form of extreme heat,” the report stated.

The implications of these findings are profound. As temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are expected to increase, placing additional strain on infrastructure, public health systems, and economies. In the Philippines, where agriculture and fishing are critical to livelihoods, prolonged heat can devastate crops, reduce yields, and disrupt food security—a concern that extends across much of South East Asia.

A Call for Action

The Climate Central report serves as a stark warning of the urgent need for both mitigation and adaptation strategies. While global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain critical, local measures to protect vulnerable populations are equally important. In the Philippines, this could mean expanding access to cooling centres, improving urban planning to reduce heat islands, and strengthening public health campaigns to educate communities about heat-related risks.

At the regional level, South East Asian nations face shared challenges that call for coordinated action. Countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, all of which feature prominently in Climate Central’s rankings, are grappling with similar issues of extreme heat and its cascading effects on health, productivity, and infrastructure. Collaborative frameworks, such as those under the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), could play a vital role in sharing resources, knowledge, and strategies to address these challenges.

Looking Ahead: An Uncertain Future

The broader implications of climate-driven heat in the Philippines and beyond remain a subject of concern. If current trends continue, scientists warn that the number of risky heat days could rise significantly, exacerbating existing inequalities. Poorer communities, often lacking the resources to adapt, are likely to bear the brunt of these changes, while urban centres like Manila may face increasing pressure on energy grids as demand for cooling surges.

While projections about future heatwaves and their impacts carry some uncertainty, the trajectory is clear: without substantial intervention, the health and economic risks associated with climate change will only grow. As the Climate Central report suggests, the past three months are not an anomaly but a preview of a warmer, more challenging future.

For now, the immediate focus in the Philippines remains on safeguarding those most at risk. As temperatures persist, the government, civil society, and international partners must work together to build resilience against a threat that shows no sign of abating. The question is not whether climate change will continue to shape life in the region, but how effectively societies can respond to its mounting challenges.