Tensions Rise in West Philippine Sea as US and Philippines Launch Joint Military Drills

MANILA – As Chinese ships and aircraft shadow Philippine and US forces near Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal in the West Philippine Sea, the two allied nations have launched their largest joint military exercises of 2025, signaling a unified stance in the face of escalating maritime tensions. The drills, dubbed “Sabak 2025,” began on March 24 at Fort Magsaysay in Nueva Ecija province, just as Chinese forces issued radio challenges to aircraft from both countries patrolling the disputed waters.

Confrontations at Sea and in the Air

On Monday, a Chinese Navy helicopter repeatedly challenged a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) aircraft conducting a maritime awareness flight over Panatag Shoal, located 222 kilometers (120 nautical miles) off Zambales province within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela reported that BFAR pilots countered China’s claims over the airspace, labeling them as “illegal.” The BFAR aircraft identified five Chinese Coast Guard ships, one People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessel, a PLAN helicopter, and four Chinese maritime militia ships in the vicinity. Philippine forces, including four BFAR vessels and two Coast Guard ships, were also present.

The same day, a US Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft, carrying journalists including a team from the Philippine Daily Inquirer, faced similar radio challenges from Chinese forces while flying in international airspace near the shoal. Despite the warnings, the US mission continued for approximately three hours. Cmdr. Zachary Sipes of the US Navy emphasized the operation’s purpose, stating “we are here to support the international rules-based order and a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Lt. Alexander Walker, the Poseidon’s pilot, underscored the broader goal of ensuring safe international waterways, while Lt. Ken Carandang, a Filipino American naval officer on board, described the mission as a rewarding collaboration with the US military. Monitoring systems aboard the aircraft detected multiple Chinese vessels shadowing Philippine ships, including the PCG’s BRP Bagacay and BFAR’s BRP Datu Pagbuaya and BRP Tamblot.

Panatag Shoal, also known as Bajo de Masinloc, has been a flashpoint since China took control of the area in 2012 following a prolonged standoff with the Philippine Navy. Located nearly 926 kilometers (500 nautical miles) from China’s nearest territory in Hainan, the shoal lies well within the Philippines’ EEZ under international law, as recognized by the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling—a decision Beijing continues to reject.

Sabak 2025: A Show of Strength

Against this backdrop of maritime friction, the Philippine and US armies kicked off their annual joint exercises, combining the previously separate Salaknib and Balikatan drills into a unified “Sabak 2025.” The term “Sabak,” as explained by Brig. Gen. Michael Logico, the Philippine exercise director, evokes the imagery of preparing for a fight—akin to cracking knuckles or staring down an opponent. Held in two phases from March 24 to April 11 and May 19 to July 20, Salaknib alone involves around 3,000 Filipino and 2,000 US Army soldiers focusing on the defense of Luzon, the Philippines’ largest island.

The broader Balikatan component, set to launch in late April, will expand to include all branches of both nations’ armed forces, making it one of the largest joint exercises in the region. While officials refrained from naming China explicitly as the target, the context of the drills is unmistakable. Col. Aidan Shattock, deputy commander for interoperability at the US Army’s 25th Infantry Division, noted that the exercises are designed to prepare for operations against “adversaries” and to defend Philippine territory.

Brig. Gen. Logico was more direct in his remarks at the opening ceremony, warning that “the adversary must be aware of what we have at stake.” The inclusion of the Typhon midrange missile system in this year’s exercises—capable of striking targets thousands of kilometers away—has already drawn concern from China, though no live-fire tests are planned. Instead, the system will be used for subject-matter exchanges, focusing on technical and strategic discussions.

Geopolitical Stakes in the Indo-Pacific

The timing of Sabak 2025 coincides with a scheduled visit by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the Philippines on March 28, part of his first Asia tour under the administration of President Donald Trump. The Pentagon has framed the trip as an effort to bolster alliances and advance a shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific—a phrase often used to counter China’s assertive actions in the region. Hegseth’s itinerary also includes stops in Japan, Hawaii, and Guam, underscoring Washington’s broader strategic focus on Asia.

The West Philippine Sea, encompassing parts of the South China Sea within the Philippines’ EEZ, remains one of the world’s most contested maritime zones. China claims nearly all of the South China Sea under its so-called “nine-dash line,” overlapping with the territorial claims of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. The region is not only a vital fishing ground but also a key shipping corridor through which trillions of dollars in global trade pass annually. Beneath its waters lie potential oil and gas reserves, further raising the stakes.

For the Philippines, the joint exercises with the US are a critical component of its defense strategy, particularly under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, which obligates both nations to support each other in the event of an armed attack. Recent years have seen an expansion of US access to Philippine military bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), a move that has irritated Beijing. The presence of US forces and advanced systems like the Typhon during Sabak 2025 sends a clear message of deterrence, even as it risks further inflaming tensions.

Regional and International Reactions

China has consistently opposed US-Philippine military cooperation, accusing Washington of stoking conflict and undermining regional stability. Beijing’s deployment of coast guard and militia vessels near disputed areas like Panatag Shoal is often seen as a tactic to assert dominance without direct military confrontation. Monday’s radio challenges to Philippine and US aircraft are part of a pattern of behavior, following incidents such as a February encounter when a Chinese helicopter approached within 3 meters of a BFAR plane—a dangerously close distance.

While the Philippine government under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has taken a firmer stance against China compared to his predecessor, it continues to balance diplomacy with defense. Manila has sought to strengthen ties with other regional players, including Japan and Australia, while maintaining dialogue with Beijing through bilateral mechanisms. However, incidents at sea, including the blocking of Philippine resupply missions to troops stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal, have repeatedly strained relations.

Public sentiment in the Philippines, as reflected in local media and online discussions, largely supports the alliance with the US as a counterweight to China’s actions. Yet there are lingering concerns about being drawn into a broader conflict, especially given the country’s proximity to potential flashpoints like Taiwan, which lies just north of the Philippines across the Luzon Strait.

Internationally, the US-Philippine drills are being closely watched by other South China Sea claimants and Indo-Pacific allies. Japan, a key US partner, has expressed support for joint exercises that uphold international law, while Australia has participated in smaller-scale drills with the Philippines in recent years. ASEAN, the regional bloc to which the Philippines belongs, remains divided on how to address China’s maritime claims, with some members favoring economic ties over confrontation.

Looking Ahead: A Delicate Balance

As Sabak 2025 unfolds over the coming months, the West Philippine Sea is likely to remain a theater of heightened tension. The joint exercises, while a demonstration of military readiness, also underscore the delicate balance Manila must strike between asserting its sovereignty and avoiding escalation. For the US, the drills reaffirm its commitment to allies in the region, even as domestic political shifts under the Trump administration could influence long-term strategy.

At Panatag Shoal, the daily cat-and-mouse game between Chinese, Philippine, and US forces serves as a microcosm of broader geopolitical rivalries. Whether these encounters will lead to dialogue or further confrontation remains an open question, one that could shape the future of the Indo-Pacific for years to come.