BANGKOK – Trade between Thailand and Myanmar has taken a hit in February 2025, with total trade value dropping to 17.47 billion Thai Baht (US$487 million), a decline of 3.25% compared to the previous month. The downturn, reported by Thailand’s Department of Foreign Trade, is largely attributed to an ongoing crackdown on cross-border scam call-center operations along the Thai-Myanmar border, disrupting regular trade flows. While exports to Myanmar saw a slight dip of 0.6% to 10.027 billion Baht (US$280 million), imports fell more sharply by 6.6% to 7.443 billion Baht (US$208 million), signaling deeper structural challenges in this critical economic corridor.
Energy Exports Hit Hardest
Among the most affected sectors were energy exports, with diesel and other refined petroleum products plummeting by 61.0% to just 510 million Baht (US$14 million). This significant drop reflects not only the impact of border security measures but also fluctuating demand and logistical constraints amid Myanmar’s ongoing internal instability. However, there are glimmers of resilience in other areas. Excluding energy products, Thai exports to Myanmar grew by 7.1%, driven by demand for non-energy goods such as agro-industrial products and industrial items. 
Director-General Arada Fuangthong of the Ministry of Commerce highlighted the government’s commitment to stabilizing trade relations. “We are closely monitoring the situation at the Thai-Myanmar border and will continue to provide facilitation support to traders” she stated, underscoring efforts to mitigate the impact of security operations on legitimate commerce. Plans for initiatives like the “Border Trade and Special Economic Zone Expansion Project: Border Trade Fair” in Mae Sot district, Tak province, are still on track, aiming to stimulate economic activity in the region.
Broader Border Trade Shows Strength
Despite the downturn with Myanmar, Thailand’s overall border and transit trade figures for February painted a more optimistic picture. Total trade surged by 19.9% to 154.354 billion Baht (US$4.31 billion), with exports rising by 20.8% to 86.020 billion Baht (US$2.40 billion) and imports increasing by 18.8% to 68.334 billion Baht (US$1.91 billion). This resulted in a trade surplus of 17.686 billion Baht (US$494 million), a positive sign for Thailand’s regional trade dynamics. For the first two months of 2025, total border and transit trade reached 299.494 billion Baht (US$8.36 billion), marking a 10.9% increase year-on-year.
A breakdown of border trade with neighboring countries shows Laos leading at 28.078 billion Baht (US$784 million), up 8.4%, followed by Malaysia at 25.401 billion Baht (US$709 million), up 15.6%, and Cambodia at 15.594 billion Baht (US$435 million), also up 15%. Myanmar, despite the decline, remains a significant partner at 17.47 billion Baht (US$487 million). Key export items across these borders included diesel, valued at 3.355 billion Baht (US$94 million), alongside agro-industrial products and industrial goods.
Transit Trade to Third Countries Soars
Beyond direct border trade, Thailand’s transit trade to third countries through neighboring territories also saw remarkable growth, rising by 37.7% to 67.811 billion Baht (US$1.89 billion). Exports in this category jumped by 52.4% to 35.200 billion Baht (US$983 million), while imports grew by 24.8% to 32.611 billion Baht (US$911 million). China dominated as the largest market for transit trade, with transactions valued at 38.537 billion Baht (US$1.08 billion), a 55.5% increase. High-value export items included hard disk drives at 7.571 billion Baht (US$211 million), TSNR block rubber at 4.887 billion Baht (US$136 million), and concentrated latex at 2.373 billion Baht (US$66 million).
This robust growth in transit trade highlights Thailand’s strategic position as a regional trade hub, facilitating the flow of goods to major markets like China through overland routes in Laos and Myanmar. For the first two months of 2025, total transit trade reached 129.154 billion Baht (US$3.61 billion), up 19.5%, further cementing Thailand’s role in Southeast Asian supply chains.
Underlying Challenges at the Thai-Myanmar Border
The decline in trade with Myanmar, though a small part of Thailand’s broader trade portfolio, raises questions about the long-term stability of cross-border commerce in the region. The crackdown on scam call-center operations, while necessary to curb transnational crime, has inadvertently disrupted legitimate trade. These operations, often based in border areas like Myawaddy on the Myanmar side, have exploited porous borders and lax oversight, drawing increased scrutiny from Thai authorities. The resulting security measures, including stricter border controls and checkpoints, have slowed the movement of goods and added costs for traders.
Myanmar’s internal situation adds another layer of complexity. Since the military coup in February 2021, the country has been gripped by political turmoil and armed conflict, displacing communities and disrupting economic activity. Border trade, a lifeline for many in Myanmar’s border regions, has become increasingly volatile. While Thai exports excluding energy showed growth, the sharp drop in petroleum products suggests that key sectors remain vulnerable to both policy shifts and on-the-ground realities.
Analysts note that the Thai government faces a delicate balancing act. On one hand, curbing illegal activities is critical for national security and regional stability. On the other, overly stringent measures risk alienating legitimate traders and undermining economic ties with Myanmar, a neighbor with whom Thailand shares a 2,400-kilometer border. “The challenge is to target criminal networks without collateral damage to trade” said a Bangkok-based economist familiar with border issues. “Initiatives like the Mae Sot trade fair are steps in the right direction, but sustained dialogue with Myanmar authorities, however limited, is essential.”
Regional Context and Economic Implications
Thailand’s border trade dynamics must also be viewed within the broader context of Southeast Asian economic integration. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has long promoted cross-border trade as a driver of regional growth, with initiatives like the ASEAN Economic Community aiming to reduce barriers and boost connectivity. Thailand, as a central player in mainland Southeast Asia, benefits from its proximity to Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Malaysia, leveraging overland trade routes to access larger markets like China.
The growth in trade with Laos, Malaysia, and Cambodia reflects this interconnectedness, with each country offering unique opportunities. Laos, for instance, serves as a conduit for goods heading to China via the Kunming-Bangkok corridor, while Malaysia provides access to maritime routes and Islamic markets. Cambodia, though smaller in trade volume, is a growing partner with increasing demand for Thai consumer goods. Against this backdrop, the dip in Myanmar trade, while concerning, is a relatively minor setback in an otherwise upward trajectory.
Yet, the Myanmar situation underscores the fragility of trade reliant on stable political environments. Unlike Laos or Malaysia, where relative stability allows for predictable trade planning, Myanmar’s ongoing crisis introduces uncertainty. Thai policymakers must navigate not only bilateral trade concerns but also the humanitarian and security implications of Myanmar’s instability, which often spill across the border in the form of refugee flows and illicit activities.
Looking Ahead: Opportunities and Risks
As Thailand seeks to bolster its position as a regional trade hub, the government’s response to the Myanmar trade downturn will be telling. Efforts to diversify export categories and strengthen non-energy trade are promising, but they must be paired with pragmatic border policies that facilitate rather than hinder legitimate commerce. The upcoming Border Trade Fair in Mae Sot could serve as a testing ground for such approaches, offering a platform to rebuild trust among traders and showcase Thailand’s commitment to economic partnership.
At the same time, the broader surge in border and transit trade signals resilience in Thailand’s economy, even as specific corridors face headwinds. With transit trade to China growing rapidly, Thailand is well-positioned to capitalize on global supply chain shifts, particularly as companies seek alternatives to traditional maritime routes amid geopolitical tensions elsewhere. However, sustaining this momentum will require addressing bottlenecks at borders, investing in infrastructure, and ensuring that security measures do not come at the expense of economic opportunity.
For now, the slight decline in Thailand-Myanmar trade serves as a reminder of the intricate interplay between economics and geopolitics in Southeast Asia. As both countries grapple with internal and shared challenges, the path forward will depend on finding common ground at their shared border—a frontier of both opportunity and uncertainty.
