Thailand’s tourism industry, a vital pillar of the national economy, is grappling with a significant setback following a recent earthquake that has rattled both infrastructure and traveler confidence. Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association (THA), has warned that achieving the ambitious target of 39 to 40 million foreign visitors in 2025 is now “difficult,” with arrivals likely to stagnate at last year’s figure of 35.54 million. As the country approaches the Songkran festival—a peak tourism period—the quake’s aftermath, coupled with broader safety concerns, threatens to dampen the celebratory atmosphere and inflict long-term economic damage.
Immediate Impact on Tourism
The earthquake, which struck key tourist hubs including Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, and Ayutthaya, has triggered an 8-10% surge in early hotel checkouts nationwide, according to Thienprasit. Many travelers have rerouted their plans to coastal destinations like Pattaya and Phuket, perceived as safer in the quake’s wake. However, the THA anticipates a lingering impact on confidence over the next two weeks, affecting both pre-booked visitors and those still deciding whether to travel. “The association expects that the earthquake will have a lasting impact on the Songkran tourism atmosphere, making it more subdued than in the past two years,” Thienprasit noted, estimating a recovery period of at least a month.
The financial toll is already evident, with the THA projecting a 10-15% decline in hotel and tourism revenue. This downturn is particularly concerning for a sector that contributes roughly 12% to Thailand’s GDP and employs millions. Beyond the immediate economic hit, high-profile incidents such as the collapse of the State Audit Office in Bangkok’s Chatuchak district have gone viral on social media, amplifying fears about structural safety across the country. Thienprasit emphasized that such images could further erode Thailand’s reputation as a secure destination. 
Broader Safety Concerns Loom Large
The earthquake is not an isolated issue but part of a troubling pattern of security-related incidents in Thailand during the first quarter of 2025. From the disappearance of Chinese actor Xing Xing near the Thai-Myanmar border to a crackdown on call center gangs and concerns over the repatriation of Uyghurs to China, the country has faced a series of challenges that have unsettled potential visitors. Thienprasit issued a stark warning: if another security issue emerges, the tourism sector “may not recover and could suffer long-term impacts.” He highlighted that Chinese travelers, a key demographic for Thailand’s tourism market, are increasingly opting for Japan due to its stronger safety reputation.
These concerns are compounded by the timing of the earthquake, just ahead of Songkran, the Thai New Year festival in mid-April, which traditionally draws massive crowds of domestic and international tourists. Thienprasit urged the government to implement stringent safety measures during the festival, describing it as a critical “trial” to restore confidence while also addressing the needs of quake victims. Without such action, the subdued atmosphere could translate into empty hotels and deserted attractions, further straining businesses already reeling from the disaster.
Government and Industry Response
In response to the crisis, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has ordered nationwide hotel inspections to reassure tourists. The THA, in collaboration with the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), has mobilized over 4,000 engineers to assess building safety, with a list of certified hotels set to be published soon. Large hotel chains, equipped with in-house engineering teams, are well-positioned to complete these checks swiftly, but smaller establishments face financial hurdles. Thienprasit called on the government to subsidize inspection costs for these smaller operators, arguing that “safety must come first to ensure sustainable tourism growth.”
Beyond structural safety, the government is exploring ways to offset the anticipated shortfall in foreign arrivals. One proposed measure is the revival of the ‘Tiew Thai Khon La Khrueng’ co-payment scheme, a domestic tourism stimulus that offers subsidies for travel within Thailand. Thienprasit endorsed the initiative, noting that boosting local travel could partially compensate for the decline in international visitors. If implemented, the scheme could encourage Thai nationals to explore their own country during Songkran and beyond, providing a lifeline to struggling businesses.
Regional Competition and Lessons from Abroad
Thailand’s tourism woes are not unfolding in isolation. Regional competitors like Japan have capitalized on their reputation for safety and efficiency, drawing travelers who might otherwise have chosen Thailand. Thienprasit advised the government to study Japan’s approach to safety management, particularly in how it communicates reliability to international markets. For instance, Japan’s rigorous building codes and transparent disaster response protocols have bolstered its appeal, even in the face of natural disasters like earthquakes, which are far more frequent there than in Thailand.
Chinese tourists, who accounted for nearly a third of Thailand’s foreign arrivals before the pandemic, are a particular concern. Their preference for Japan reflects not only safety worries but also broader perceptions of value and experience. Thailand’s tourism sector must address these perceptions head-on, balancing immediate recovery efforts with long-term strategies to rebuild trust. This could include targeted marketing campaigns in key markets like China, emphasizing safety upgrades and cultural attractions, alongside diplomatic efforts to resolve security issues that have made headlines.
Economic Ripple Effects
The economic implications of a stunted tourism sector extend far beyond hotels and travel agencies. Local vendors, tour guides, and small businesses in tourist-heavy areas like Chiang Mai and Ayutthaya stand to lose significant income if visitor numbers fail to rebound. Moreover, a prolonged downturn could deter foreign investment in Thailand’s hospitality industry, which has been a bright spot for economic growth in recent years. The projected 10-15% revenue drop, while substantial, may be an underestimate if confidence does not return within the one-month timeframe Thienprasit outlined.
On a national level, the tourism slump could exacerbate Thailand’s already uneven economic recovery. While the country has made strides since the pandemic, with foreign arrivals climbing to 35.54 million in 2024, persistent safety concerns and natural disasters risk undoing that progress. Policymakers will need to weigh the costs of stimulus measures like the co-payment scheme against broader fiscal priorities, ensuring that short-term relief does not come at the expense of long-term stability.
Looking Ahead: A Test for Resilience
As Thailand navigates the aftermath of the earthquake, the coming weeks will serve as a litmus test for its tourism industry’s resilience. The Songkran festival offers a critical opportunity to demonstrate that the country remains a safe and vibrant destination, but only if the government and private sector act decisively. Enhanced safety protocols, transparent communication, and support for smaller businesses could help mitigate the damage, while domestic tourism initiatives may provide a much-needed buffer.
Yet questions linger about whether these measures will be enough to restore Thailand’s allure in an increasingly competitive regional market. With foreign arrivals unlikely to meet the 39-40 million target for 2025, the focus must shift to sustainable recovery—balancing immediate economic needs with the imperative to rebuild trust. For now, the industry holds its breath, hoping that the tremors of this disaster do not leave a permanent fault line in Thailand’s tourism landscape.
