In Jakarta, the vibrant energy that typically accompanies Ramadan and the celebration of Eid al-Fitr has been conspicuously absent this year. As Indonesian Muslims marked the end of the holy fasting month on March 31, 2025, the mood across the nation—home to the world’s largest Muslim population—was notably subdued. Shopping malls and markets, usually bustling with activity in the lead-up to the holiday, stood eerily quiet, even as workers received their customary holiday bonuses. This somber atmosphere reflects deeper economic struggles and mounting political discontent under President Prabowo Subianto’s nascent administration.
Economic Slowdown Dims Festive Spirit
The economic challenges facing Indonesia have cast a long shadow over Ramadan, a time traditionally associated with communal joy and increased consumer spending. Reports indicate a sharp decline in public appetite for expenditure, with foot traffic in commercial hubs dwindling significantly. The government has also forecasted a substantial drop in domestic travel for family reunions during Eid al-Fitr, estimating that only 146.5 million people will journey to their hometowns this year, down from 193.6 million in 2024. This reduction signals not just logistical challenges but a broader reluctance to spend amid financial uncertainty. 
Compounding these concerns, the Jakarta Composite Index and the Indonesian rupiah have recently plummeted to historic lows, reflecting waning investor confidence in the country’s economic prospects. Analysts point to a combination of global economic headwinds and domestic policy missteps as key contributors to this downturn. For many Indonesians, the economic strain has translated into a more frugal approach to the holiday season, with families prioritizing essentials over festive indulgences.
Political Discontent Fuels Public Frustration
Beyond economic woes, political tensions have further dampened the national mood. The recent passage of a revised Indonesian Military (TNI) Law has sparked widespread outrage, triggering violent protests in cities across the archipelago. Critics argue that the legislation grants excessive powers to the military, raising fears of a return to authoritarian practices reminiscent of past regimes. The public backlash has been palpable, with many Indonesians voicing their discontent over what they perceive as a rollback of democratic gains.
President Prabowo Subianto, who assumed office with a wave of cautious optimism and an approval rating exceeding 80 percent, now faces growing scrutiny. Despite his strong political backing from a ruling coalition, the former army general’s early months in office have been marred by these controversies. Prabowo has attributed negative public reactions to poor communication by his ministers rather than flaws in his policies. He has defended ambitious initiatives, such as a free nutritious meals program targeting 80 million children and pregnant women, and the creation of a new sovereign wealth fund named Danantara, arguing that their large-scale nature requires time to yield visible results.
However, critics suggest that Prabowo’s reliance on high approval ratings may have fostered overconfidence, blinding him to the realities on the ground. The economic struggles and political unrest have fueled a narrative of disconnect between the administration and the populace, with many Indonesians feeling their grievances are being overlooked.
A Personal and Political Crossroads for Prabowo
For Prabowo, this moment is a critical test of leadership. A seasoned political figure with a storied and often controversial past, he is no stranger to public criticism. As a key military figure during the waning days of his former father-in-law Soeharto’s authoritarian regime, Prabowo has faced rejection and condemnation before. His long political journey, marked by electoral defeats and personal setbacks, has shaped a resilience that some admire and others question.
Yet, as a leader who often invokes fervent patriotism, Prabowo must navigate the delicate balance between his nationalistic principles and the practical needs of a struggling nation. His determination to push forward with sweeping reforms, while commendable in ambition, risks alienating a population already burdened by economic hardship. Observers note that his combative style, while rooted in a desire to transform Indonesia, may be at odds with the moderation and empathy needed to address public concerns.
Ramadan, with its emphasis on self-restraint and modesty, offers a poignant metaphor for the restraint many believe Prabowo should exercise. The holy month serves as a reminder of the importance of building relationships—between individuals and between leaders and their people—through understanding and compassion. As Indonesians celebrated Eid al-Fitr with simplicity this year, the hope among many is that their president will heed these values, prioritizing dialogue over defensiveness.
Economic Policies Under Scrutiny
Central to the public’s discontent are concerns over Prabowo’s economic policies, which some fear may exacerbate existing challenges if not recalibrated. The free meals program, while a flagship initiative aimed at addressing malnutrition, has raised questions about funding and implementation at such a vast scale. Similarly, the establishment of the Danantara sovereign wealth fund, intended to drive long-term economic growth, has been met with skepticism amid the current market downturn. Critics argue that without transparent mechanisms and short-term relief measures, these policies risk becoming symbols of overreach rather than progress.
Moreover, the economic fallout from these initiatives could be compounded by external factors. Indonesia, like many emerging economies, remains vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties. The weakening rupiah, for instance, has driven up the cost of imports, placing additional strain on households already grappling with inflation. For rural communities and urban workers alike, the promise of large-scale reforms feels distant when immediate survival is the pressing concern.
Some analysts suggest that targeted stimulus packages or subsidies for small businesses and low-income families could help restore public confidence. Others advocate for a reassessment of military spending in light of the controversial TNI Law, arguing that reallocating resources to social welfare programs might better address the nation’s urgent needs. While no concrete evidence suggests mismanagement or corruption in Prabowo’s administration at this stage, the lack of tangible results from his policies has fueled speculation and frustration among the public.
Ramadan’s Lessons Amid National Challenges
For Indonesian Muslims, Ramadan is more than a period of fasting; it is a time of spiritual renewal, self-purification, and community bonding. The month teaches resilience against worldly temptations and emphasizes the importance of empathy and solidarity. As families gathered to celebrate Eid al-Fitr on March 31, 2025, many did so with a renewed sense of purpose, even if their celebrations were marked by simplicity due to financial constraints.
This spirit of resilience is perhaps what Indonesia needs most as it navigates the intersection of economic hardship and political turbulence. The holy month’s teachings could serve as a guide for both citizens and leaders, encouraging a collective focus on shared values over division. For President Prabowo, the challenge lies in translating his patriotic fervor into policies that resonate with the lived experiences of Indonesians, ensuring that his vision for the nation does not come at the cost of public trust.
As Indonesia moves forward from this unusually somber Ramadan, the question remains whether Prabowo can bridge the gap between his ambitious agenda and the immediate needs of his people. With public discontent simmering and economic indicators flashing warning signs, the coming months will be a crucial test of his ability to adapt and lead with the moderation that Ramadan so poignantly embodies.
