Tensions Rise in South China Sea as Philippines Faces Chinese Aggression

In the disputed waters of the South China Sea, tensions between the Philippines and China have escalated, drawing international concern and highlighting the fragility of regional stability. A recent incident near the China-controlled Scarborough Shoal, captured in photographs from February 16, 2024, showed Filipino fishermen and Philippine Fisheries and Aquatic Resources personnel navigating past a Chinese Coast Guard ship, a stark reminder of the ongoing maritime standoff. As global powers voice alarm over China’s increasing assertiveness, the Philippines finds itself balancing domestic challenges with the urgent need to defend its sovereignty.

International Condemnation of China’s Actions

On March 12-14, foreign ministers from the G7 nations—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—along with the High Representative of the European Union, convened in Quebec, Canada, to address pressing global issues. Among their concerns was the situation in the South China Sea, particularly China’s use of dangerous maneuvers and water cannons against Philippine vessels. In a collective statement, the group described China’s actions as “illicit, provocative, coercive, and dangerous,” reaffirming their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region grounded in respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The G7 also expressed unease over China’s military buildup and the rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, urging Beijing to engage in strategic risk reduction discussions and promote stability through transparency. While this international support bolsters the Philippines’ position, there are no indications that China intends to de-escalate, with its gray zone operations—tactics that fall short of outright conflict but assert dominance—pushing boundaries in the disputed waters.

A National Priority for Filipinos

For the Philippines, the South China Sea dispute, often referred to locally as the West Philippine Sea, is more than a geopolitical issue; it strikes at the heart of national identity and economic survival. A February survey commissioned by Stratbase and conducted by Social Weather Stations revealed that 77 percent of Filipinos—roughly eight out of ten—support strengthening alliances with other countries through joint patrols, sails, and military exercises to assert territorial and economic rights in the region. With national elections looming on May 12, the survey also found that 78 percent of respondents would vote for candidates who prioritize defending the country’s rights against China’s aggressive actions.

This public sentiment underscores a shift in the national consciousness. No longer confined to the realm of the Armed Forces or the Department of Foreign Affairs, the maritime dispute has become a unifying cause for Filipinos across all sectors of society. The audacity of China’s actions in recent years, from blocking access to traditional fishing grounds to deploying coast guard vessels near Philippine territories, has galvanized public resolve to protect national interests.

Government and Civil Society Respond

The Philippine government is taking steps to bolster its maritime presence and environmental stewardship in the disputed region. At a forum on March 14 titled “Women in the Maritime Space: Securing the Future of the Indo-Pacific through Strategic Collaboration,” organized by Stratbase in partnership with the Australian Embassy, Secretary Antonia Yulo Loyzaga of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) outlined her agency’s efforts. “At the DENR, our contribution to protecting the Philippines’ maritime domain lies primarily in advancing climate action, conserving marine biodiversity, and the overall health of our ocean ecosystems beyond our national jurisdiction” she said.

Among the DENR’s initiatives are the establishment of eight marine scientific stations, including a new research facility on Pag-asa Island, and upgrades to the Tubbataha Reef Ranger Station and Snake Island Station in Palawan. In February, the agency conducted integrated research on biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration on Pag-asa Island as part of the BIOCONSEQ-WPS Project, with further work planned for April at Recto Bank and Rizal Reef. These efforts aim not only to assert Philippine presence but also to safeguard the natural resources that sustain millions of livelihoods.

Beyond government action, civil society is playing a crucial role. The Atin Ito Coalition, a civilian advocacy group, announced plans for its third mission to the West Philippine Sea, alongside a “Peace and Solidarity Sea Concert” scheduled for May 25. These initiatives reflect a grassroots determination to assert Philippine claims through peaceful means, complementing official efforts to secure the region.

Balancing Domestic Challenges with Regional Tensions

While the Philippines focuses on its maritime defense, it must also navigate significant domestic challenges. Upcoming elections, political rivalries, and economic pressures add layers of complexity to the government’s response. The South China Sea issue has become a litmus test for political candidates, with public opinion clearly favoring assertive leadership on the matter. Yet, addressing these external threats requires resources and unity at a time when internal divisions could undermine national efforts.

Partnerships with like-minded nations offer a potential lifeline. The Stratbase forum highlighted the importance of collaboration with countries such as Australia, emphasizing inclusive approaches that involve all sectors of society, including women, in maritime security discussions. Joint exercises and patrols with allies could deter further Chinese aggression, but they also risk escalating tensions if not managed carefully. The Philippines must tread a fine line between asserting its rights and avoiding direct confrontation with a far more powerful neighbor.

Environmental and Economic Stakes

The West Philippine Sea is not just a battleground for sovereignty but also a vital economic and environmental resource. The region is home to rich fishing grounds that support the livelihoods of countless Filipino communities, as well as potential energy reserves that could bolster the country’s economy. China’s control over key areas like Scarborough Shoal has restricted access for Filipino fishermen, exacerbating economic hardship in coastal regions.

Environmentally, the area’s marine biodiversity is under threat from overfishing, pollution, and militarization. The DENR’s research stations and conservation projects aim to mitigate these risks, but their success depends on sustained access to disputed areas—a challenge given China’s persistent presence. If unchecked, environmental degradation in the South China Sea could have far-reaching consequences for food security and ecosystem health across the region.

The Broader Regional Implications

The South China Sea dispute extends beyond the Philippines and China, affecting the entire Indo-Pacific region. Neighboring countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei also have overlapping claims, while major powers like the United States, Japan, and Australia have vested interests in maintaining freedom of navigation through these critical waterways. The sea handles trillions of dollars in annual trade, making it a linchpin of global commerce.

China’s actions, if left unchallenged, could set a precedent for disregarding international law, particularly the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling that invalidated Beijing’s expansive claims in favor of the Philippines. While the G7’s statement signals a unified front against such behavior, translating rhetoric into actionable deterrence remains a complex task. Strategic dialogues and transparency, as urged by the G7, are essential, but China’s reluctance to engage meaningfully casts doubt on the prospects for de-escalation.

Looking Ahead: A Test of Resolve

As the Philippines braces for further encounters in the West Philippine Sea, the coming months will test its resolve and the strength of its international alliances. With civilian missions, government initiatives, and public sentiment aligning in defense of national sovereignty, the country stands at a critical juncture. Yet, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty—will diplomatic pressure and partnerships suffice to curb China’s advances, or will the region inch closer to open conflict?

For now, the Filipino fishermen navigating past Chinese vessels near Scarborough Shoal symbolize a broader struggle—one of resilience against overwhelming odds. Their determination, mirrored by a nation rallying behind its maritime rights, raises profound questions about the future of the South China Sea and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.