In a significant exchange of messages on April 14, 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto celebrated the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between their nations, pledging to deepen ties and build a shared future. The milestone comes as both countries, major players in the Global South, seek to strengthen their strategic partnership amid shifting regional and global dynamics.
A Vision for a Shared Future
President Xi, in his message, underscored the importance of China-Indonesia relations, describing the two nations as “close neighbors across the sea and good partners sharing a common future.” He emphasized that their collaboration holds “strategic and global significance,” particularly as both countries represent major developing economies. Xi’s vision is to create a model of solidarity, mutual trust, and common development that could serve as an exemplar for South-South cooperation, contributing to broader human progress. 
Reflecting on the past 75 years, Xi highlighted the resilience of the bilateral relationship, noting that both nations have “stood together through thick and thin” and achieved remarkable progress. He recalled his meetings with Prabowo in Beijing in 2024, during which they agreed to support each other’s development goals and advance modernization efforts. The ultimate aim, Xi stated, is to build a China-Indonesia community with regional and global influence, elevating their partnership to new heights.
President Prabowo echoed these sentiments, affirming that the friendship between Indonesia and China remains “robust and dynamic.” He pointed to rapid progress in cooperation across five key pillars—politics, economy, culture, maritime affairs, and security—and expressed hope for even deeper ties. Prabowo’s message underscored a shared commitment to fostering peace and stability through sustained collaboration.
Economic Ties: A Cornerstone of Partnership
At the heart of the China-Indonesia relationship lies a robust economic partnership. China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner and second-largest foreign investor, while Indonesia ranks as China’s second-largest investment destination among ASEAN member states. Bilateral trade reached an impressive $147.8 billion in 2024, a figure more than triple the volume recorded a decade ago. This economic interdependence has become a cornerstone of their strategic alignment, with both leaders keen to expand cooperation in emerging sectors.
Key projects, such as the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway, symbolize the tangible outcomes of this partnership. Funded largely through Chinese investment, the railway—Indonesia’s first high-speed line—has been hailed as a flagship initiative under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While the project has faced challenges, including cost overruns and delays, it represents a broader ambition to enhance connectivity and economic integration across the region. Analysts suggest that future collaborations may focus on sustainable infrastructure and digital economy initiatives, areas where both nations see significant growth potential.
However, economic ties are not without their complexities. Some Indonesian policymakers and civil society groups have raised concerns about over-reliance on Chinese investment and the potential for debt burdens associated with large-scale projects. While no evidence confirms systemic issues, these debates highlight the need for balanced and transparent agreements. If addressed constructively, such concerns could pave the way for a more equitable partnership, ensuring mutual benefits for both nations.
Strategic Implications in the Global South
The renewed commitment between China and Indonesia carries broader implications for the Global South, a bloc of developing nations often navigating complex geopolitical currents. Both countries have positioned themselves as advocates for a multipolar world order, resisting dominance by traditional Western powers while promoting alternative models of development. Xi’s emphasis on South-South cooperation aligns with this vision, signaling an intent to amplify the collective voice of developing nations on the global stage.
Indonesia, with its non-aligned foreign policy and leadership role in ASEAN, serves as a critical partner for China in Southeast Asia. Beijing’s engagement with Jakarta is often seen as a counterbalance to U.S. influence in the region, particularly amid tensions in the South China Sea. While Indonesia is not a claimant in the maritime disputes, its strategic location and commitment to regional stability make it a key player in maintaining a rules-based order. Prabowo’s administration, which has prioritized economic pragmatism, appears willing to deepen ties with China while carefully managing relations with other global powers.
For China, the partnership with Indonesia offers a gateway to greater influence in ASEAN, a bloc representing over 650 million people and a combined GDP of more than $3 trillion. Beijing’s investments in infrastructure and trade have already reshaped economic landscapes across the region, but sustaining goodwill requires addressing local concerns about environmental impacts and labor practices. If navigated carefully, the China-Indonesia alliance could set a precedent for how major developing countries collaborate on shared challenges, from climate change to economic inequality.
Historical Context: A Bond Forged Over Decades
The 75-year diplomatic relationship between China and Indonesia has not always been smooth. In the mid-20th century, ties were strained by ideological differences during the Cold War, culminating in a suspension of relations in 1967 amid anti-communist purges in Indonesia. Diplomatic engagement resumed in 1990, and since then, both nations have worked to rebuild trust through economic cooperation and cultural exchanges. The past two decades, in particular, have seen a dramatic strengthening of ties, driven by mutual interests in trade and regional stability.
Xi’s reference to “deep-rooted friendship” between the two peoples reflects a shared history of overcoming adversity. From joint efforts in post-colonial nation-building to modern-day collaborations on global issues like public health, the relationship has evolved into a multifaceted partnership. Cultural exchanges, such as student programs and tourism initiatives, have further cemented people-to-people connections, fostering mutual understanding despite linguistic and cultural differences.
Yet, historical sensitivities linger. In Indonesia, domestic narratives around Chinese influence occasionally resurface, often tied to perceptions of economic dominance or geopolitical ambitions. Prabowo’s administration will need to navigate these sentiments carefully, ensuring that closer ties with Beijing are perceived as beneficial to the Indonesian public. Public opinion, as gauged through social media platforms like X, suggests a mix of optimism and caution, with many Indonesians welcoming economic opportunities while remaining wary of potential over-dependence.
Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
As China and Indonesia chart the next chapter of their relationship, several challenges loom on the horizon. Maritime security remains a critical issue, particularly given overlapping interests in the Natuna Islands, where Indonesia has asserted its sovereign rights within its exclusive economic zone. While direct conflict with China has been avoided, any escalation in regional tensions could test the resilience of bilateral ties. Both leaders will need to prioritize dialogue and confidence-building measures to prevent misunderstandings.
On the economic front, sustaining the momentum of trade and investment growth requires addressing structural issues, such as regulatory transparency and environmental sustainability. Collaborative projects in green technology and renewable energy could offer a pathway to align economic goals with global climate commitments, an area where both nations have expressed interest. Additionally, expanding cultural and educational exchanges could further solidify the social foundation of their partnership, ensuring that cooperation extends beyond government-to-government interactions.
Geopolitically, the China-Indonesia relationship will continue to be shaped by broader regional dynamics, including ASEAN’s role as a mediator in great power competition. Indonesia’s ability to balance its partnerships with China, the United States, and other actors will be crucial in maintaining its strategic autonomy. For China, sustaining a positive image in Southeast Asia hinges on demonstrating that its engagement is rooted in mutual respect and shared prosperity, rather than unilateral gain.
As the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations unfolds, the messages exchanged between Xi Jinping and Prabowo Subianto signal a renewed determination to build a partnership that transcends economic metrics. Whether this vision translates into tangible outcomes remains an open question, but the commitment to a shared future offers a promising foundation for navigating the uncertainties of a rapidly changing world.
