Tensions and Talks: Philippines Pushes for Peace in South China Sea Amid Rising Incidents

Amid escalating encounters in the disputed South China Sea, the Philippines has renewed its call for adherence to international law during a pivotal round of negotiations with ASEAN and China. Hosting the latest Joint Working Group (JWG) meeting on the Declaration on the Conduct (DOC) of parties in the South China Sea from April 9-11, 2025, in Manila, the Philippine government voiced serious concerns over recent incidents that have threatened its vessels, personnel, and sovereignty in the region it refers to as the West Philippine Sea.

Recent Incidents Heighten Regional Tensions

The South China Sea, a critical maritime corridor and resource-rich zone, remains a flashpoint for territorial disputes involving multiple nations. For the Philippines, the stakes are particularly high in the West Philippine Sea, which lies within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) highlighted during the Manila meeting that recent actions by other countries—implicitly pointing to China—have infringed on its sovereign rights and jurisdiction. While specific details of these incidents were not disclosed in the official statement, the timing aligns with a notable event on February 18, 2025, when the Philippine Coast Guard identified a Chinese Navy helicopter flying near a Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) plane during a reconnaissance flight over Scarborough Shoal, also known as Panatag Shoal. This shoal, a traditional fishing ground for Filipino fishermen, has been under effective Chinese control since a tense standoff in 2012.

The DFA’s statement underscored the risks posed to Philippine personnel and vessels, a concern amplified by past violent encounters. One such incident on June 17, 2024, at Ayungin Shoal—where the Philippines maintains a grounded warship, the BRP Sierra Madre, as a military outpost—resulted in a severe injury to a Filipino naval officer, including the amputation of a thumb. That clash marked a low point in bilateral relations, prompting the establishment of a Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) between Manila and Beijing to manage resupply missions to the outpost. Encouragingly, the Armed Forces of the Philippines reported that the latest rotation and resupply (Rore) mission on April 9, 2025, was the seventh consecutive operation conducted without tensions, attributing the success to the BCM framework.

Negotiating a Code of Conduct: Progress and Challenges

The Manila meeting was a critical step toward concluding an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea, a long-sought framework to prevent conflict and ensure stability in the region. The COC negotiations, overseen by the JWG-DOC and co-chaired by Malaysia and China, aim to build on the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct, a non-binding agreement that has struggled to curb escalating disputes. In 2023, ASEAN and Chinese foreign ministers adopted guidelines to accelerate the COC’s conclusion within three years, signaling renewed urgency. The next round of talks is slated for later in 2025 in Malaysia.

During the April discussions, the Philippines seized the opportunity to advocate for a rules-based order, urging all parties to adhere to international law, including the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated China’s expansive claims over nearly the entire South China Sea. This landmark decision, issued by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague following a case filed by Manila in 2013, affirmed the Philippines’ rights within its EEZ, including parts of the West Philippine Sea. Despite the ruling, Beijing continues to assert sovereignty over the disputed waters, rejecting the arbitration’s legitimacy and maintaining a strong presence through coast guard patrols, fishing fleets, and military assets.

Manila’s diplomatic stance in the talks emphasized peaceful resolution and constructive approaches to managing differences at sea. Yet, the path to a binding COC remains fraught with challenges. Analysts note that while ASEAN member states share a common interest in stability, differing national priorities and varying levels of dependence on China—economically and politically—complicate consensus. For instance, some ASEAN countries with less direct stakes in the South China Sea may prioritize economic ties with Beijing over a confrontational stance, potentially diluting the COC’s enforceability.

Strategic Implications of Scarborough Shoal and Beyond

Scarborough Shoal, located just 120 nautical miles from the Philippine coast and well within its EEZ, symbolizes the broader struggle over sovereignty and resources in the South China Sea. Since China gained effective control of the shoal’s lagoon in 2012, Filipino fishermen have faced restricted access, impacting livelihoods and fueling national outrage. The February 2025 sighting of a Chinese Navy helicopter near a Philippine reconnaissance plane underscores Beijing’s continued assertion of dominance in the area, raising questions about the potential for further escalation.

Beyond Scarborough, tensions at other flashpoints like Ayungin Shoal reveal the precarious balance of power. The BRP Sierra Madre, deliberately grounded by the Philippines in 1999 to stake its claim, serves as a de facto outpost but requires regular resupply missions—operations that have often been met with blockades or harassment by Chinese vessels. The success of the April 9, 2025, Rore mission offers a glimmer of hope, suggesting that mechanisms like the BCM could de-escalate immediate confrontations. However, experts caution that such arrangements address symptoms rather than the root cause: China’s rejection of the 2016 ruling and its expansive maritime claims, often depicted as the “nine-dash line” on maps.

The South China Sea’s strategic importance cannot be overstated. It facilitates over $3 trillion in annual trade, houses vast fisheries, and is believed to hold significant untapped oil and gas reserves. For the Philippines, securing its rights in the West Philippine Sea is not only a matter of national pride but also of economic survival. Yet, Manila faces a military and economic asymmetry with China, necessitating a delicate balance of diplomacy, international alliances, and domestic resilience.

International Law and the Path Forward

The Philippines’ insistence on international law during the ASEAN-China talks reflects a broader strategy to garner global support for its position. By invoking the 2016 arbitral award, Manila seeks to frame its claims as legally grounded, contrasting with China’s reliance on historical assertions. This approach also aligns with efforts to strengthen partnerships with like-minded nations, including the United States, Japan, and Australia, all of whom have expressed concern over Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea. Joint military exercises, such as the annual Balikatan drills with the US, and trilateral summits involving Japan underscore Manila’s push for a united front against unilateral moves in the disputed waters.

At the same time, the Philippine government remains committed to dialogue, as evidenced by its active participation in the COC negotiations and the BCM with China. This dual track—asserting legal rights while pursuing diplomatic solutions—aims to avoid direct conflict while safeguarding national interests. However, the effectiveness of this strategy hinges on ASEAN’s ability to present a unified stance and on China’s willingness to compromise, both of which remain uncertain.

Public Sentiment and Regional Dynamics

Domestically, the South China Sea issue resonates deeply with Filipinos, many of whom view China’s actions as a direct threat to national sovereignty. Public frustration has grown over incidents that endanger Filipino personnel and restrict access to traditional fishing grounds. Social media platforms reveal a mix of anger and calls for stronger government action, though there is also recognition of the need for pragmatic engagement with Beijing given China’s role as a major trading partner.

Regionally, the South China Sea dispute extends beyond the Philippines and China, involving claimants like Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. Each nation’s overlapping claims add layers of complexity to the COC negotiations, while external powers like the US maintain a keen interest in ensuring freedom of navigation. The risk of miscalculation looms large, as routine encounters between vessels or aircraft—such as the February 18, 2025, incident at Scarborough Shoal—could spiral into broader conflict if not carefully managed.

As the ASEAN-China talks progress, the Philippines stands at a crossroads. Balancing its legal rights, diplomatic efforts, and domestic expectations will be no easy task, especially in the face of an assertive neighbor. Whether the COC can deliver a lasting framework for peace remains an open question, but Manila’s resolve to pursue a rules-based order offers a critical test for the region’s future stability.