Jakarta has become the focal point of geopolitical scrutiny this week as Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto hosted Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov at the Merdeka Palace on April 15, 2025. The high-profile meeting, broadcast live on multiple Indonesian television channels, signals a deepening of ties between Jakarta and Moscow—a development that has raised eyebrows among regional powers, particularly Australia, amid reports of potential Russian military presence in Papua.
Strengthening Bilateral Cooperation
The discussions between Prabowo and Manturov, joined by Indonesia’s Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto, underscored a mutual intent to expand cooperation across various sectors. Health, tourism, technology, and education emerged as key areas of focus, building on commitments made during the Russia-Indonesia Business Forum a day earlier. Airlangga emphasized the potential for enhanced air connectivity, advocating for direct flights between Moscow and Bali, as well as Jakarta, to bolster business and tourism links. “We encourage cooperation, including direct flights from Moscow to Bali” said Airlangga, highlighting plans to connect five additional tourist destinations through air transportation.
This push for closer ties follows Prabowo’s visit to Moscow in late July 2024, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin and pledged to maintain strong relations with Russia, describing it as a “great friend.” During that trip, Prabowo expressed hopes for deeper collaboration in defense, energy, and education—sectors that continue to frame the bilateral dialogue. His earlier visit to Beijing to affirm Indonesia’s “policy of friendship” with China further illustrates Jakarta’s balancing act in navigating relations with major global powers. 
Regional Security Concerns
While the Jakarta meeting focused on economic and cultural ties, a parallel development has sparked concern in Canberra. A report by defense publication Janes suggested that Russia has formally requested permission to base military aircraft from its Aerospace Forces (VKS) at a facility in Papua, approximately 1,200 kilometers north of Darwin, Australia. This area is strategically significant due to its proximity to Australian military bases, including Darwin, which hosts a rotational force of United States Marines for six months annually and is undergoing upgrades to accommodate visiting US bombers.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed unease over the potential Russian presence, stating to reporters, “We obviously do not want to see Russian influence in our region.” Albanese confirmed that Canberra is seeking further clarification from Jakarta on the matter, while maintaining that Australia enjoys a good relationship with Indonesia. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, however, cited assurances from his Indonesian counterpart that no Russian air force planes would be based in the country, as reported by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Roy Soemirat stated that the ministry was unaware of the report, and responses from the Defense Ministry and military were pending at the time of writing.
Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong reiterated the importance of Indonesia to Australian security, pointing to a defense cooperation agreement signed between the two nations in 2024. Opposition leader Peter Dutton also voiced concerns over the Janes report, seeking a briefing from the government on the issue. The situation underscores the delicate balance Indonesia must strike as it deepens ties with Russia while maintaining strong regional partnerships.
Geopolitical Implications
The timing of the Russia-Indonesia talks adds a layer of complexity to an already tense geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific. Indonesia, as Southeast Asia’s largest economy and a key player in ASEAN, has historically pursued a non-aligned foreign policy, engaging with both Western and Eastern powers to safeguard its national interests. Prabowo’s administration appears to be continuing this approach, as evidenced by his engagements with both Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in recent months. However, the prospect of Russian military assets in Papua—if confirmed—could shift perceptions of Indonesia’s neutrality, particularly among Western-aligned neighbors like Australia and the United States.
Papua’s strategic location makes it a focal point for regional security dynamics. Its proximity to northern Australia and its position along key maritime routes heighten its importance, especially as tensions in the South China Sea and broader Indo-Pacific region persist. While the Janes report remains unverified by Indonesian authorities, the mere suggestion of Russian military aircraft in the area has reignited debates over foreign influence in Southeast Asia. Analysts note that such a move, if pursued, could be perceived as a counterbalance to the growing US military presence in the region, including joint exercises and basing arrangements with Australia.
Moreover, Indonesia’s domestic considerations cannot be overlooked. Papua, a region with a history of separatist movements and complex socio-political challenges, is a sensitive area for Jakarta. Allowing foreign military presence there could provoke domestic backlash or exacerbate existing tensions, a factor that Prabowo’s administration is likely weighing carefully. For now, the lack of official confirmation from Indonesian authorities leaves the issue shrouded in uncertainty, but the regional ripple effects are already evident in Canberra’s response.
Economic Dimensions of the Partnership
Beyond the security concerns, the economic aspects of the Indonesia-Russia relationship are significant. The push for direct flights between major cities like Moscow, Jakarta, and Bali is not merely a tourism initiative but a strategic move to facilitate greater business exchanges. Indonesia, with its burgeoning middle class and growing tourism sector, sees Russia as a potential market for inbound visitors, while Russian firms could gain access to Indonesia’s vast natural resources and emerging tech industries. Airlangga’s comments during the business forum reflect a pragmatic approach, focusing on tangible outcomes like air connectivity to drive economic ties.
Defense cooperation, a recurring theme in Prabowo’s engagements with Russia, also carries economic implications. Indonesia has previously procured military equipment from Russia, including Sukhoi fighter jets, though a planned deal in 2018 was reportedly stalled due to US sanctions on Moscow. Renewed talks on defense collaboration could revive such agreements, potentially providing Indonesia with cost-effective military hardware while offering Russia a foothold in Southeast Asian markets. However, any such deals would need to navigate international sanctions and regional sensitivities, particularly given Australia’s concerns.
Balancing Act for Jakarta
As Indonesia strengthens its partnership with Russia, it must also manage its relationships with Western allies and regional neighbors. Australia, a key partner in defense and trade, has invested heavily in fostering ties with Jakarta, as evidenced by last year’s defense cooperation agreement. The Albanese government’s measured response—seeking clarification while emphasizing goodwill—suggests a desire to avoid escalation, but the underlying tension is palpable. For Indonesia, maintaining this delicate balance will be critical to avoiding alienation from either side.
Public sentiment within Indonesia may also shape the trajectory of these engagements. While economic benefits and tourism initiatives are likely to be welcomed, any perception of compromising national sovereignty—particularly in Papua—could fuel criticism of Prabowo’s foreign policy. The administration’s ability to communicate the benefits of its Russia ties, while addressing security concerns transparently, will be tested in the coming months.
Looking Ahead
As Indonesia navigates its evolving relationship with Russia, the eyes of the region remain fixed on Jakarta. The outcomes of the talks between Prabowo and Manturov, while focused on economic and cultural cooperation, have broader implications for security and geopolitical alignments in the Indo-Pacific. Whether the reports of a potential Russian military presence in Papua hold true remains to be seen, but the mere possibility has already stirred debate. For now, Indonesia stands at a crossroads, balancing its ambitions for global partnerships with the realities of regional dynamics, as questions linger over how far its ties with Moscow will extend.
