Vietnam’s Dragon Fruit Surges Ahead in Export Market Amid Durian Decline

In a remarkable turn for Vietnam’s agricultural sector, dragon fruit has reclaimed its position as the country’s top fruit export, surpassing durian with a staggering US$93.8 million in earnings during the January-February period of 2025. This resurgence, driven by strong demand in China and bolstered by high domestic prices, signals a significant shift in Vietnam’s fruit export landscape, even as durian faces steep declines due to stringent import regulations in key markets. With bananas also gaining ground and potential expansion into the US market on the horizon, Vietnam’s fruit industry stands at a critical juncture, balancing opportunity with regulatory challenges.

A Comeback for Dragon Fruit

Dragon fruit, long a staple of Vietnam’s agricultural exports, has staged an impressive comeback in early 2025. According to the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, exports of the vibrant, spiky fruit reached US$93.8 million in the first two months of the year, accounting for 14.3 percent of the total fruit and vegetable export value. In February alone, dragon fruit brought in US$35 million, representing 13.6 percent of the sector’s monthly turnover. This marks a significant recovery for a fruit that once dominated Vietnam’s export charts, peaking at nearly US$1.3 billion in 2018 before slipping below the US$1 billion mark by 2022 as durian surged ahead.

The resurgence is largely fueled by demand from China, Vietnam’s largest trading partner for agricultural goods. Vietnamese dragon fruit accounts for 90 percent of China’s imported supply, a dominance that has helped sustain high domestic prices ranging from VNĐ23,000 to VNĐ35,000 (US$0.90-1.37) per kilogram, depending on the variety. As Đặng Phúc Nguyên, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, noted, “Dragon fruit has a storied history as Vietnam’s top export, and its return to prominence reflects both market demand and the resilience of our farmers.”

Durian’s Dramatic Decline

While dragon fruit ascends, durian—often dubbed the “king of fruits” for its lucrative export value—has plummeted to third place among Vietnam’s fruit exports. In February 2025, durian export turnover was a mere US$21.4 million, with the two-month total also standing at US$21.4 million, reflecting a staggering 69 percent drop year-on-year. This downturn has reduced durian’s share to just 7.6 percent of total fruit and vegetable exports, a sharp fall from its recent dominance.

The primary driver of this decline is new import regulations imposed by China, which consumes 95 percent of Vietnam’s durian exports. Since the start of 2025, Chinese authorities have mandated that all durian shipments be accompanied by test results for cadmium residue and yellow O chemicals, conducted at laboratories recognized by China. These stringent requirements have caused significant delays in customs clearance, complicating the export process and dampening trade volumes. Additionally, the European Union has increased border inspection frequency for Vietnamese durian from 10 percent to 20 percent, citing repeated violations of pesticide residue standards. These dual regulatory hurdles have dealt a severe blow to durian exporters, many of whom are struggling to adapt.

Bananas Gain Momentum

Amid the shifting fortunes of dragon fruit and durian, bananas have emerged as a quiet contender in Vietnam’s fruit export market. In February 2025, banana exports reached US$40.8 million, a 32 percent increase from January. Over the first two months, total banana exports amounted to US$71.5 million, comprising more than 10 percent of the sector’s overall earnings. This growth reflects rising international demand and Vietnam’s ability to diversify its export portfolio, cushioning the impact of durian’s decline. Industry observers note that bananas, with their relatively stable supply chain and fewer regulatory barriers, could play a larger role in sustaining Vietnam’s agricultural export revenue in the coming years.

Expanding Horizons: The US Market

Beyond China and the EU, Vietnam is eyeing the United States as a promising market for dragon fruit. Currently, the US accounts for nearly 10 percent of Vietnam’s dragon fruit exports, a share that could grow significantly with favorable policy changes. On April 11, 2025, Deputy Minister Hoàng Trung of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment led a delegation to meet with the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of the US Department of Agriculture. During the discussions, Vietnam proposed the recognition of a hot steam treatment method for dragon fruit, a process that could substantially reduce processing costs for exporters.

If approved, this method would streamline exports to the US, potentially leading to a sharp increase in trade volume. Such a development would not only diversify Vietnam’s export destinations but also reduce reliance on the Chinese market, where regulatory risks remain high. Analysts suggest that success in the US could serve as a model for penetrating other high-value markets, further solidifying dragon fruit’s position as a cornerstone of Vietnam’s agricultural economy.

Challenges and Opportunities

While the resurgence of dragon fruit offers a bright spot for Vietnam’s agricultural sector, challenges loom large. The durian industry’s struggles underscore the vulnerability of export-driven agriculture to sudden policy shifts in key markets. China’s tightened regulations and the EU’s increased inspections highlight the need for Vietnamese exporters to invest in compliance, quality control, and sustainable farming practices. Failure to meet international standards could jeopardize not only durian but also other fruits, including dragon fruit, as global scrutiny of food safety intensifies.

Moreover, the high domestic prices of dragon fruit, while beneficial for farmers in the short term, could pose risks if they deter buyers or encourage overproduction. Balancing supply with demand will be critical to maintaining the fruit’s profitability. At the same time, Vietnam must navigate geopolitical and trade dynamics, particularly with China, to secure stable export channels. Initiatives like the proposed hot steam treatment for the US market demonstrate proactive efforts to diversify, but their success is far from guaranteed.

Economic Implications

The shifting dynamics of Vietnam’s fruit export market carry broader implications for the country’s economy, where agriculture remains a vital sector employing millions and contributing significantly to GDP. Dragon fruit’s rise provides a much-needed boost amid durian’s decline, potentially stabilizing rural incomes and supporting communities dependent on fruit cultivation. However, the sector’s heavy reliance on a few key markets—particularly China—exposes it to external shocks, underscoring the urgency of diversification.

Bananas’ steady growth offers a complementary revenue stream, but Vietnam must continue to innovate and adapt to maintain its competitive edge in the global market. Investments in technology, such as improved processing methods and pest-resistant varieties, could enhance productivity and compliance with international standards. Additionally, trade agreements and diplomatic efforts to open new markets will be crucial in mitigating risks and maximizing the sector’s potential.

Looking Ahead

As Vietnam’s fruit export landscape evolves, the resurgence of dragon fruit stands as a testament to the adaptability and resilience of its agricultural sector. Yet, with durian exports reeling from regulatory setbacks and bananas carving out a growing niche, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Will dragon fruit sustain its momentum, and can Vietnam secure new markets like the US to bolster its position? As policymakers, farmers, and exporters grapple with these questions, the stakes for Vietnam’s agricultural future have rarely been higher.