In a world increasingly defined by geopolitical rivalry and economic fragmentation, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has sounded a stark warning about the unraveling of the post-World War II international order. Speaking at the annual S. Rajaratnam Lecture on April 16, 2025, at the Singapore University of Technology and Design, Wong painted a picture of a global system in “messy transition,” driven by America’s inward turn and the intensifying competition between the United States and China. For a small, trade-dependent nation like Singapore, which thrived under decades of US-led stability, the stakes could not be higher.
The Fraying of a US-Led Order
At the heart of Wong’s address was a sobering assessment of America’s shifting role on the world stage. For over six decades, the United States acted as the guarantor of a rules-based international order, providing the security umbrella and economic framework that allowed countries like Singapore to flourish. After World War II, the US supported decolonization, rebuilt war-torn economies in Europe and Asia through initiatives like the Marshall Plan, and established global institutions such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. This system, underpinned by American leadership, championed free trade and open markets, creating space for smaller nations to engage meaningfully in global affairs. 
“Its leadership and security umbrella maintained peace and stability in Asia, and created an environment in which countries like Singapore could thrive” said Wong, reflecting on the extraordinary approach of a victorious power that sought to prevent another global conflict through enlightened self-interest. Yet, he cautioned, the conditions sustaining this order “no longer hold.” The US, once the world’s unchallenged superpower after the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, is stepping back from its role as global policeman, leaving a vacuum that neither China nor any other nation appears ready or able to fill.
This retreat is not merely a policy shift under the current administration but may reflect a “new normal” for the US, driven by deep structural changes in American society. Wong highlighted a growing disillusionment among Americans with globalization, fueled by job losses, stagnant wages, and social dislocation in communities left behind by economic integration. Long, costly wars in the Middle East, coupled with the 2008 financial crisis and the disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic, have deepened public weariness toward foreign entanglements. “There is a growing sense that other countries are benefiting disproportionately from America’s security umbrella and access to its markets, while contributing little in return” said Wong, capturing the sentiment driving this inward turn.
US-China Rivalry and Economic Bifurcation
As America recalibrates its global commitments, its rivalry with China is reshaping the international landscape. Wong described the two powers as locked in a fierce contest for supremacy, with neither desiring open conflict but both harboring deep mistrust. “As economic ties fray, other aspects of the US-China relationship will come under greater strain. Trust will erode further. Tensions will rise across multiple domains” he warned. This competition, already evident in military posturing and technological races, has taken on a sharp economic edge with the escalation of trade disputes.
On April 2, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced wide-ranging tariffs, targeting Asian economies in particular, though many of these “reciprocal” tariffs were later postponed. Further tariffs on China, reaching up to 145 percent, prompted a retaliatory response from Beijing with tariffs of up to 125 percent. Wong characterized this as the onset of a “full-blown trade war,” accelerating the decoupling of the world’s two largest economies. “What we are witnessing is the remaking of the global economy – not as one integrated system, but as increasingly bifurcated ecosystems centered around America and China” he said, underscoring the uncertainty this creates for businesses worldwide.
For Singapore, a small, open economy reliant on global trade, this bifurcation poses existential challenges. Wong noted that geopolitical competition has returned “with a vengeance,” with major powers using economic tools—tariffs, export controls, and sanctions—not for market efficiency but as instruments of statecraft to advance national interests. “These trends are not new, but they have reached a new intensity with the latest US tariff moves” he added, pointing to the profound implications for nations caught in the crossfire of this economic realignment.
Regional Anxieties and Strategic Recalibrations
The ripple effects of America’s retreat extend far beyond trade. In Europe, there is growing anxiety over reliance on US military support, while in Asia, countries are questioning the durability of American commitments to the region. Wong cited US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s recent assurances during a trip to Asia that “America First does not mean America alone.” Yet, skepticism persists. “Countries will take steps to strengthen their own capabilities in case help does not arrive in time” said Wong, pointing to intensified defense debates in Japan and South Korea. Once-taboo discussions about acquiring nuclear capabilities are now openly contemplated, reflecting a region on edge.
Across the globe, nations are turning inward, prioritizing narrow national interests over collective cooperation. Wong described this as a departure from the multilateralism that defined the post-war era, a shift that threatens the stability smaller states like Singapore have relied upon. “We are in the midst of a messy transition globally. To what, nobody can tell” he said, encapsulating the uncertainty that pervades strategic planning in capitals worldwide.
China’s Rise and Shifting Narratives
Amid America’s recalibration, China has emerged as a “near peer” competitor, having benefited immensely from the US-led order it now challenges. Wong noted a generational shift within China, where a new cohort, raised during an era of rapid growth and national revival, believes “the East is rising, and the West is declining.” This confidence fuels Beijing’s assertive posture, further complicating the US-China dynamic. While both powers claim they do not wish to force countries to choose sides, Wong argued that each seeks to draw others into its orbit, reshaping alliances and dependencies in the process.
For Singapore, navigating this rivalry requires a delicate balance. Wong referenced a 1972 speech by S. Rajaratnam, Singapore’s first foreign minister, who envisioned the city-state benefiting from an era of open trade and rules-based cooperation. That vision materialized because of a stable global environment and Singapore’s decision to integrate into the international system. Now, with that system fraying, Wong emphasized the need to adapt to a world where economic and security assumptions are being rewritten.
Domestic Drivers of America’s Shift
Understanding America’s inward turn requires grappling with its domestic challenges, Wong argued. Beyond economic grievances, there is a broader cultural and political shift. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described America’s unique global role as an anomaly, a product of the Cold War’s end, rather than a permanent fixture. Wong emphasized that this sentiment transcends partisan lines, reflecting a consensus that the US can no longer afford to resolve every global problem. “It reflects deeper, structural changes in American society – that the US can no longer afford to lead the world in resolving every problem, and needs to cut back on what it does abroad” he said, suggesting that this shift could endure beyond the current administration.
This recalibration has profound implications for Asia, where US security guarantees have long underpinned regional stability. Wong acknowledged the historical context of America’s post-war leadership, from rebuilding defeated enemies like Germany and Japan to fostering global cooperation through institutions and trade agreements. Yet, as domestic priorities take precedence in Washington, the reliability of those guarantees is increasingly in question.
Singapore’s Path Forward
For Singapore, the erosion of the US-led order and the rise of a bifurcated global economy demand a rethinking of strategic assumptions. Wong, who also serves as Finance Minister, highlighted ongoing engagements with US counterparts to mitigate the impact of tariffs, signaling an active effort to safeguard Singapore’s economic interests. Yet, the broader challenge lies in navigating a world where multilateral cooperation is giving way to zero-sum competition.
As geopolitical and economic turbulence intensifies, Singapore’s role as a hub of trade and diplomacy is under strain. Wong’s address served as both a diagnosis of global challenges and a call to adapt to an uncertain future. While the city-state cannot alter the trajectory of great power rivalry, it must find ways to preserve its relevance and resilience in a fragmenting world.
As the US turns inward and China asserts its influence, the question remains: can smaller nations like Singapore carve out a space for stability and prosperity amid the remaking of the global order? The answer, for now, lies in uncharted territory.
