In a stark reminder of the challenges facing Vietnam’s energy transition, a recent study has revealed a troubling rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the national power grid. Conducted by Hà Nội University of Science and Technology in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the research found that the grid’s emission factor for 2024 reached 0.681 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity produced—a 3.2 percent increase from the previous year. This uptick, driven by a heavy reliance on coal, underscores the difficulties Vietnam faces in aligning its energy policies with its ambitious net zero emissions target by 2050.

Coal’s Persistent Dominance

The primary culprit behind the rising emissions is a 17.7 percent surge in coal-fired electricity output, which accounted for nearly half—49.5 percent—of Vietnam’s energy mix in 2024. Coal, a highly carbon-intensive fuel, has long been a cornerstone of the country’s power generation, particularly during periods of rapid industrialization. The study’s findings indicate that this dependency has pushed Vietnam’s grid into what experts describe as “brown” territory, a term used to denote energy systems heavily reliant on fossil fuels, in contrast to “green” grids powered by renewables or low-emission sources.

Pham Ngoc Anh, a representative of the research team, highlighted the entrenched nature of this issue in an interview with Vietnamplus.vn. “The proportion of coal in the energy mix remains stubbornly high, and reducing it is proving extremely difficult” he said. Historical data from the study supports this concern, showing that emissions peaked between 2015 and 2018, a period marked by aggressive expansion of coal-fired plants to meet soaring energy demands.

While the growth of renewable energy since 2019 has offered some respite, the overall emission factor of Vietnam’s grid remains high by global standards. This persistent reliance on coal not only jeopardizes environmental goals but also raises questions about the country’s ability to balance economic growth with sustainability.

Renewables: A Mixed Picture

Despite the dominance of coal, Vietnam has made notable strides in expanding renewable energy, particularly in solar and wind power. Projects like the wind power systems in Quang Tri Province stand as visible symbols of this shift. However, the study cautions that even renewables carry a carbon footprint when their full life cycle—from manufacturing to disposal—is considered. For instance, solar power can emit as little as 13 tonnes of CO2e per gigawatt-hour (GWh) under optimal conditions. Yet, in scenarios where production and waste management are less efficient, emissions can soar to 731 tonnes of CO2e per GWh, comparable to oil-fired power.

This nuanced reality complicates the narrative of renewables as a silver bullet for decarbonization. It also highlights the need for Vietnam to invest not only in expanding renewable capacity but also in ensuring that the entire supply chain—from production to decommissioning—aligns with low-emission standards. Without such measures, the environmental benefits of renewables could be undermined, leaving the grid’s carbon intensity stubbornly high.

Policy Implications and Recommendations

The study’s findings come at a critical juncture for Vietnam, as the country grapples with implementing Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8), a roadmap intended to guide its energy transition through 2030 and beyond. PDP8 aims to reduce fossil fuel dependency and boost the share of renewables, aligning with Vietnam’s commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2050—a pledge made at the COP26 climate conference in 2021. However, the recent rise in emissions suggests that progress is uneven, and significant hurdles remain.

To address these challenges, the research team proposed several actionable steps. First, they recommended that the national grid’s emission factor be published in the first quarter of each subsequent year. This would provide businesses, policymakers, and other stakeholders with up-to-date data for GHG accounting, improving the accuracy of emissions reporting and supporting national inventories. The emission factor serves as a key metric, reflecting the cleanliness of the grid and offering a benchmark for tracking progress toward decarbonization.

Additionally, the researchers called for the establishment of clear key performance indicators (KPIs) for power plants across the country. By setting specific targets for carbon intensity, authorities could hold operators accountable and drive improvements in efficiency. Coupled with training programs, this approach would empower plant operators to independently calculate and report their emissions, fostering transparency and encouraging best practices.

Beyond the environmental implications, Vietnam’s coal dependency carries significant economic and social consequences. The country’s rapid development over the past two decades has been fueled by cheap, reliable energy—much of it from coal. This has supported industrial growth, attracted foreign investment, and lifted millions out of poverty. However, the environmental cost of this strategy is becoming increasingly apparent, not only in terms of emissions but also through air pollution and health impacts in communities near coal plants.

Transitioning to a cleaner grid, while necessary, poses its own set of challenges. Reducing coal usage could lead to higher energy costs in the short term, potentially straining industries and households. Moreover, the shift requires substantial investment in infrastructure, technology, and workforce retraining—particularly in regions where coal mining and power generation are major sources of employment. Balancing these competing priorities will test the government’s resolve and require careful policy design to avoid unintended economic fallout.

At the same time, Vietnam’s international commitments add another layer of pressure. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement and a participant in global climate initiatives, the country faces scrutiny from partners and investors who increasingly prioritize sustainability. Failure to curb emissions could jeopardize access to green financing or trade opportunities, particularly as carbon border taxes and similar mechanisms gain traction in major markets like the European Union.

Regional Context and Global Comparisons

Vietnam’s struggle with coal dependency is not unique in Southeast Asia, a region where energy demand continues to grow alongside economic development. Neighbors like Indonesia and the Philippines also rely heavily on coal, with grids classified as “brown” by international standards. In contrast, countries like Singapore have invested heavily in natural gas and renewables, achieving lower emission factors despite their own energy constraints.

Globally, Vietnam’s grid emission factor of 0.681 tonnes of CO2e per MWh places it above the average for many developed nations, where renewable and nuclear energy play larger roles. For example, the European Union’s average emission factor is significantly lower, reflecting decades of investment in wind, solar, and energy efficiency. While Vietnam’s economic context differs from that of wealthier nations, these comparisons highlight the scale of transformation needed to align with global climate goals.

Yet, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Vietnam’s abundant solar and wind resources, coupled with declining costs for renewable technologies, offer a viable path forward. The government has already approved ambitious targets under PDP8, including a goal to increase the share of renewables to 30 percent by 2030. If implemented effectively, these policies could accelerate the transition and position Vietnam as a regional leader in clean energy.

Looking Ahead

As Vietnam navigates the complexities of its energy transition, the latest findings on grid emissions serve as both a warning and a call to action. The rise in carbon intensity underscores the urgency of reducing coal dependency, while the mixed impact of renewables points to the need for a holistic approach to decarbonization. With Power Development Plan VIII as a guiding framework, the coming years will be crucial in determining whether Vietnam can shift toward a greener grid and meet its net zero ambitions by 2050.

For now, stakeholders across government, industry, and civil society are watching closely. The path to a sustainable energy future is fraught with challenges, but it also offers opportunities for innovation, investment, and international collaboration. As Vietnam works to reconcile its economic needs with environmental imperatives, the question remains: can the nation power its growth without sacrificing the planet?