As global powers intensify their competition for influence in South-East Asia, Indonesia— the region’s largest economy and a pivotal maritime nation—finds itself at the heart of a strategic tug-of-war. With China and the United States vying for economic and military partnerships, and other players like Russia entering the fray, Jakarta’s delicate balancing act under its “bebas aktif” (independent and active) foreign policy is under scrutiny. Recent high-level engagements with both Beijing and Washington underscore Indonesia’s critical role in shaping regional dynamics amid rising geopolitical tensions.
High-Stakes Engagements with Global Powers
On April 16, 2025, Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington to discuss deepening defense and security cooperation. A key focus was ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea, a region fraught with territorial disputes, in line with international law, according to a US State Department statement. The talks also addressed a 32 percent tariff on Indonesian exports imposed by the Trump administration, as Jakarta seeks to mitigate trade imbalances with the US. 
Just five days later, on April 21, Sugiono joined China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing for the inaugural China-Indonesia joint foreign and defense ministerial dialogue, often referred to as a “2+2” meeting. Held at the Diaoyutai State Guest House, the dialogue resulted in agreements to strengthen cooperation in disarmament, non-proliferation, and arms control, as per Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry. Both nations also pledged to enhance coordination between the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency and the China Coast Guard, a move seen as symbolic of Beijing’s efforts to close the gap with Washington in defense ties with Jakarta.
These back-to-back engagements highlight Indonesia’s strategic importance as a maritime power straddling vital global trade routes. Analysts note that Jakarta’s ability to engage with both the US and China without aligning too closely with either reflects its long-standing commitment to neutrality. “Indonesia stands to benefit from its ability to hedge among major powers wooing the country in economic, political, and strategic terms” said Dr. Fitriani Bintang Timur, a defense analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
Military Modernization and Economic Leverage
Indonesia’s military ties with the US have deepened in recent months. In November 2024, the two nations held staff talks in Hawaii, which the US Army described as a demonstration of unity and shared purpose. Reports from Bloomberg suggest Jakarta is considering a multibillion-dollar purchase of US-made defense equipment, including fighter jets and munitions, to modernize its aging military. Dr. Fitriani noted that Indonesia could potentially negotiate industrial cooperation benefits, such as hosting the manufacturing or assembly of F-15EX jets, in exchange for tariff relief or trade concessions. However, she cautioned that budget constraints could limit such large-scale procurement.
China, while lagging behind the US in defense partnerships with Indonesia, is making inroads. The recent 2+2 dialogue followed a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, signaling Beijing’s recognition of Jakarta as a key regional partner, even as Xi’s recent South-East Asian tour excluded Indonesia in favor of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia.
Economically, Indonesia is navigating choppy waters. The US tariff hikes have strained trade relations, prompting Sugiono to voice concerns during the Beijing talks. Yet, he emphasized that both China and the US remain crucial to Indonesia’s development, with Jakarta aiming for “balanced and constructive” cooperation. This pragmatic approach is evident in Indonesia’s diversification of arms procurement, working with not only the US and China but also Turkey and South Korea, to avoid overreliance on any single supplier, according to Pieter Pandie, an international relations researcher at the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
Russia’s Shadow and Regional Concerns
Adding complexity to the geopolitical landscape is Russia’s rumored interest in establishing a military base in Biak, located in Indonesia’s easternmost province of Papua. A report by defense publication Janes on April 14, 2025, citing anonymous government sources, sparked alarm in neighboring Australia, where analysts warned of potential long-term security implications for Canberra. Indonesian officials have dismissed the report as untrue, and Russian Ambassador to Indonesia Sergei Tolchenov clarified in a letter to The Jakarta Post on April 19 that military cooperation between the two nations is grounded in legal agreements and aimed at strengthening defensive capabilities. “It is not directed against any third country, nor does it pose a threat to security in the Asia-Pacific region” he stated.
Despite the denial, the speculation underscores the broader trend of intensifying great power rivalries in South-East Asia. Dr. Fitriani warned that such rivalries could lead to an increased foreign military and paramilitary presence in the region, citing examples like China’s use of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, US bases in the Philippines, and Myanmar’s recent allowance of a Chinese security firm to operate domestically. Middle powers are also stepping up freedom of navigation operations, further expanding the military footprint in the region.
Indonesia’s Balancing Act and Strategic Autonomy
Under President Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia has pursued a “friends to all” approach, engaging with a diverse array of powers to maintain strategic autonomy. This is reflected in Jakarta’s decision to join BRICS—a coalition of major emerging economies including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—in January 2025, becoming the first South-East Asian nation to do so. Dr. Broto Wardoyo, a senior assistant professor of international relations at the University of Indonesia, described this as part of a broader strategy to diversify partnerships and reduce reliance on any single power. “These actions should be understood as signals that Indonesia seeks to maintain its independence and neutrality” he said.
Indonesia’s outreach extends beyond regional groupings like ASEAN. Its engagement with Qatar on the Palestine issue, for instance, highlights Jakarta’s efforts to position itself as a balanced voice in global conflicts such as the Gaza crisis. This multi-alignment strategy allows Indonesia to “play major powers against one another” for bargaining leverage, according to Dr. Fitriani, though she cautioned that Jakarta must keep multiple powers interested without locking into one side, risking retaliation from others.
The Broader Regional Implications
South-East Asia’s geopolitical significance ensures that the presence of external powers—through defense dialogues, joint exercises, or other forms of cooperation—will likely grow as rivalries intensify. Mr. Pandie noted that the multi-domain nature of current great power competition means even allies of major powers face repercussions. “Indonesia will need to play its cards carefully, while staying true to the values and norms that it has traditionally championed through its foreign policy” he said.
Dr. Fitriani believes that ASEAN’s unity provides South-East Asian nations with a strong strategic voice to resist additional formal and permanent military bases in the region, which could escalate existing tensions. However, the region’s history of hosting external military presence to varying degrees suggests that completely avoiding such involvement may be challenging.
A Delicate Path Ahead
Indonesia’s ability to navigate these complex rivalries without inviting negative consequences remains an open question. As Dr. Wardoyo pointed out, great power competition is unlikely to ease anytime soon, keeping Jakarta’s balancing act in the global spotlight. With its strategic location, economic heft, and commitment to non-alignment, any tilt toward one side could have significant repercussions for regional and global dynamics.
As Indonesia continues to engage with the US, China, Russia, and others, the nation’s leadership faces the daunting task of leveraging these relationships for national benefit while preserving its independence. For now, Jakarta’s pragmatic approach under President Prabowo offers a glimpse of how a middle power can maneuver in a polarized world, though the long-term outcomes of this high-stakes game remain uncertain.
