Rohingya Crisis Deepens as Thousands Flee Myanmar Violence into Bangladesh

Over 113,000 Rohingya have crossed into Bangladesh since November 2023, escaping escalating violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, where they allege persecution by the Arakan Army (AA), a rebel group now controlling much of the region. The influx, centered in Cox’s Bazar, has pushed the total number of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh to at least 1.3 million, exacerbating an already strained humanitarian situation and complicating repatriation efforts.

Escalating Violence and Allegations of Abuse

The latest wave of Rohingya arrivals stems from intensifying conflict in Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army, representing the ethnic Rakhine community, has been battling Myanmar’s military junta. Since launching a major offensive in November 2023, the AA claims to have seized control of 14 out of 17 townships, including a 270-kilometer stretch of border with Bangladesh. While their campaign targets the junta, Rohingya fleeing the area report being caught in the crossfire and subjected to targeted abuses by both sides.

Accounts from those arriving in Bangladesh paint a grim picture. Many allege that the Arakan Army has engaged in killings, torture, enforced disappearances, and forced recruitment, using Rohingya as human shields or laborers in construction projects. Md Zubair, chairman of the Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights, stated, “Arakan Army is carrying out atrocities against the Rohingyas living in Rakhine State. They are picking Rohingyas for recruitment into their forces to fight against the military junta”.

Zubair further claimed that the AA has evicted Rohingya from their homes, resettling ethnic Rakhine individuals—referred to locally as Mogh—from neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, and India into those areas. These allegations, echoed by many fleeing refugees, have not been independently verified. Md Mizanur Rahman, Bangladesh’s Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC), noted, “Speaking to the fleeing Rohingyas, we learnt that they are escaping to Bangladesh after facing persecution by the Arakan Army. We have not been able to independently verify this information”.

If confirmed, such actions could constitute severe human rights violations, adding a new layer of complexity to an already protracted crisis. The lack of independent access to Rakhine State makes substantiating these claims challenging, though the consistency of refugee testimonies has prompted calls for international investigation.

Humanitarian Strain in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, already hosting around 1.2 million Rohingya who fled earlier waves of violence—most notably a 2017 military crackdown by Myanmar’s junta—now faces an unprecedented burden. The recent arrivals, documented through fingerprinting by Bangladeshi authorities and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), have overwhelmed existing refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar, the world’s largest refugee settlement.

Last week, UNHCR sent a formal request to the RRRC office, seeking assistance to accommodate over 100,000 new arrivals. However, logistical constraints pose significant hurdles. Mizanur Rahman expressed concern over the lack of space, stating, “We have received a letter from UNHCR requesting arrangements for the accommodation of more than one lakh new Rohingyas. We do not have space to build houses for such a large number”.

Beyond immediate shelter needs, the influx raises broader policy dilemmas. Rahman warned that constructing new shelters could act as a pull factor, encouraging more Rohingya in Rakhine State to cross the border. “This effort to build new shelters will make Rohingya repatriation more difficult, as it will encourage more Rohingyas in Rakhine to come to Bangladesh” he added. This concern reflects a long-standing tension in Bangladesh’s approach to the crisis: balancing humanitarian obligations with the desire to avoid becoming a permanent host for millions of displaced people.

Historical Context and Repatriation Challenges

The Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic minority in Myanmar, have faced decades of systemic discrimination and statelessness, denied citizenship by successive governments. The 2017 military campaign, widely condemned as ethnic cleansing, displaced hundreds of thousands into Bangladesh, where many remain in limbo, unable to return due to ongoing insecurity and lack of legal protections in Myanmar.

Repatriation efforts, mediated by Bangladesh, Myanmar, and international actors, have repeatedly stalled. Two prior attempts in 2018 and 2019 failed, with refugees refusing to return without guarantees of safety and citizenship. The recent conflict in Rakhine State, now under Arakan Army control rather than the junta, introduces new uncertainties. While the AA’s stated aim is to secure autonomy for the Rakhine people, their alleged treatment of the Rohingya—if verified—suggests that a return under current conditions remains untenable for many.

Historically, the Rohingya have accused both the Myanmar military and ethnic Rakhine communities of complicity in past persecutions. Refugees arriving before November 2023 often cited collaboration between Rakhine civilians and junta forces during the 2017 crackdown. The current situation, with the AA as the dominant power in the region, appears to have shifted the dynamics of violence, though the Rohingya remain vulnerable to abuse from multiple actors.

International Response and Calls for Action

The deepening crisis has renewed demands for international intervention. Md Zubair of the Arakan Rohingya Society urged global powers to investigate the reported abuses by the Arakan Army, describing the situation in Rakhine as “dire.” Humanitarian organizations, including UNHCR, continue to provide aid in Cox’s Bazar, but resources are stretched thin, and long-term solutions remain elusive.

Myanmar’s internal conflict, compounded by the 2021 military coup and subsequent civil war, has fragmented the country, with various ethnic armed groups vying for control. The Arakan Army’s gains in Rakhine State represent a significant challenge to the junta, but their governance of the region raises questions about the treatment of minorities like the Rohingya. Without independent monitoring or access for journalists and aid groups, verifying the scale of abuses remains difficult, though satellite imagery and refugee testimonies offer partial insights into the destruction and displacement.

Bangladesh, meanwhile, has called for greater international burden-sharing, arguing that it cannot indefinitely shoulder the responsibility for over a million refugees. The government has sought diplomatic support to pressure Myanmar into creating conditions for safe repatriation, but with Rakhine State now largely under AA control, engaging with non-state actors adds further complexity to negotiations.

Looking Ahead Amid Uncertainty

As violence persists in Myanmar, the flow of Rohingya into Bangladesh shows no signs of abating. Each new arrival adds pressure to an already fragile humanitarian system, while dimming hopes for a near-term resolution to one of the world’s most protracted refugee crises. The allegations against the Arakan Army, though unverified, underscore the urgent need for independent investigations and accountability mechanisms to protect vulnerable populations.

For the Rohingya in Cox’s Bazar, life remains a precarious balance between survival and uncertainty. Many cling to the hope of returning to their homeland, but with Rakhine State embroiled in conflict and control shifting among armed groups, that prospect grows ever more distant. As the international community grapples with how to respond, the question looms: how long can Bangladesh sustain this burden, and what will it take to finally secure justice and safety for the Rohingya?