Indonesia’s Rice Reserves Soar to 23-Year High as Production Surges

By Duc Nguyen, South East Asia Correspondent

Indonesia has amassed a national rice reserve of 3.51 million tonnes in the first four months of 2025, the highest in over two decades, Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman announced on Sunday. The record stockpile, driven by robust domestic production and aggressive procurement by the State Logistics Agency (Bulog), signals a significant step towards food security for the world’s third-largest rice producer.

The reserve, up from 1.79 million tonnes in January, was bolstered by Bulog’s procurement of 1.88 million tonnes from local farmers between January and April, a figure Minister Amran described as unprecedented. “Over the past five years, annual procurement averaged 1.2 million tonnes. This year, we’ve reached 1.88 million tonnes without imports,” he said at a press conference in Jakarta on 5 May 2025. The surge aligns with a projection by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) that domestic rice production will hit 18.76 million tonnes in the first half of 2025, up 11.17% from last year.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Indonesia’s 2025 rice output at 34.6 million tonnes, a 15% increase from 30 million tonnes in 2024, positioning the country as Southeast Asia’s top rice producer. This follows a dip in 2024, when production fell 1.54% to 30.62 million tonnes, prompting imports to stabilise reserves. Unlike previous years, 2025’s reserve growth relies entirely on domestic supply, a point Amran emphasised to counter claims of import reliance.

President Prabowo Subianto, who took office in October 2024, has prioritised food security, ordering the construction of emergency storage facilities to accommodate the bumper harvest. With Bulog’s warehouses nearing capacity, Prabowo has directed the repurposing of idle state, military, and police land for temporary storage. “We never imagined Bulog’s warehouses would be full,” Amran said, noting the need for 1.1 million tonnes of additional storage capacity.

Logistical challenges and export ambitions

The record yield has created logistical hurdles, with Bulog struggling to store the influx. Amran estimated the reserve could reach 4 million tonnes by the end of May, necessitating rapid infrastructure expansion. The government’s focus on domestic procurement reflects a broader push for rice self-sufficiency, a goal Indonesia briefly achieved in the mid-1980s and 2008-09 but has since struggled to maintain due to high per capita consumption and variable yields.

Rice, a staple for Indonesia’s 280 million people, accounts for roughly half of daily caloric intake, making price stability critical. Bulog, which holds a monopoly on rice imports and exports, maintains reserves to stabilise domestic prices through market interventions. In 2015, when reserves dwindled, prices spiked, forcing imports of 848,000 tonnes. This year’s stockpile, priced at 6,500 rupiah (£0.31) per kilogram, meets strict quality standards, Amran assured, with “no tolerance for damaged rice”.

The production boom has spurred ambitious plans to export rice for humanitarian purposes, with Prabowo authorising shipments to countries in need. However, the Agriculture Ministry rejected a request from Malaysia, citing the priority of bolstering national reserves. “Our focus is securing domestic supply,” Amran said, amid concerns from economists that exports could strain production if not carefully managed.

Historical context and policy shifts

Indonesia’s rice sector, which employs 20 million households, has long been a cornerstone of the economy, contributing 2.3% to GDP. Yet, the country has historically relied on imports—averaging 1.1 million tonnes annually over the past decade—from Thailand and Vietnam to meet demand. In 2023 and 2024, imports supplemented reserves, a strategy that drew criticism for undermining local farmers. The 2025 shift to domestic procurement marks a departure, driven by technological improvements and government subsidies for fertilisers and irrigation.

BPS data highlights the volatility of rice output, with 2024’s 30.62 million tonnes down from 31.1 million in 2023. The 2025 forecast, backed by the USDA, reflects improved yields from irrigated sawah (wet rice fields), which cover 58% of cultivated land. Climate change remains a threat, with erratic rainfall linked to El Niño disrupting planting in past years. Amran credited “favourable conditions” and policy support for this year’s gains but warned of the need for vigilance.

Critics and future prospects

While the government celebrates the milestone, some analysts question its sustainability. Economist Faisal Basri, a vocal critic, argued that export plans risk overextending production capacity, especially given Indonesia’s history of import dependence. “We must prioritise local needs over symbolic gestures,” he told Tempo.co. Others note that Bulog’s data transparency—relying on BPS rather than internal ministry figures—lends credibility to the reported figures.

Amran remains optimistic, citing Prabowo’s directive to monitor procurement closely. The minister highlighted Bulog’s 56-year history, noting that reserves have not reached such levels since 2002. “This is a historic achievement, but we’re not stopping here,” he said. The government plans to expand irrigation and seed programmes to sustain growth, though experts warn that urban migration and climate risks could challenge long-term self-sufficiency.

The record reserve offers a buffer against price spikes, a relief for consumers after 2024’s import-driven volatility. For now, Indonesia’s rice sector is basking in a rare moment of abundance, but the path to sustained self-reliance remains fraught with challenges.