Thailand’s ruling coalition, a fragile alliance of ideologically disparate parties, is teetering on the brink of collapse as tensions between the dominant Pheu Thai Party and its key partner, Bhumjaithai, escalate into a full-blown political crisis. At the heart of the conflict are two towering figures: former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the influential patriarch of Pheu Thai, and Newin Chidchob, the de facto leader of Bhumjaithai. What began as a subtle power struggle has erupted into a proxy war, with the stability of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government hanging in the balance.
Roots of the Rift
The discord within Thailand’s coalition government, formed after a contentious post-election negotiation in 2023, has deep roots. Pheu Thai, with 142 seats in the 494-seat House of Representatives, has long relied on Thaksin’s strategic guidance despite his official absence from formal politics. Bhumjaithai, holding 69 seats, emerged as a critical partner, providing the numerical strength needed to secure a commanding 324-seat coalition majority. Yet, beneath the surface, mutual distrust simmered as both parties vied for influence over policy and patronage networks.
The turning point came with the recent Senate selection process, which significantly tilted the balance of power. Senators aligned with the so-called “blue camp,” a faction associated with Bhumjaithai, bolstered the party’s clout in Thailand’s bicameral legislature. This newfound leverage emboldened Newin Chidchob to challenge Pheu Thai on multiple fronts, from policy disagreements to appointments, testing the coalition’s unity. Political analysts suggest that Bhumjaithai senses a reluctance from Thaksin to dissolve Parliament—a move that could trigger fresh elections and risk further instability. 
Senate Election Controversy Fuels Fire
The crisis deepened when the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) submitted a damning report to the Election Commission alleging irregularities in the Senate election. The probe, which summoned 53 senators for questioning between May 19 and 21, has intensified the standoff between the coalition partners. While the specifics of the allegations remain under wraps pending official findings, the summonses have fueled speculation of systemic rigging—a charge that, if substantiated, could have far-reaching consequences for Bhumjaithai’s newfound Senate allies.
For Pheu Thai, the controversy presents both a risk and an opportunity. On one hand, it amplifies public scrutiny of the coalition’s internal fractures; on the other, it provides leverage to pressure Bhumjaithai into compliance. However, sources close to the government indicate that Thaksin remains wary of pushing too hard, aware that a fractured coalition could jeopardize key legislative agendas, including the 2026 national budget bill.
Budget Bill: The Breaking Point?
The upcoming special parliamentary session from May 28 to 30, during which the 2026 budget bill will be tabled, looms as a potential flashpoint. Whispers in political circles suggest that Bhumjaithai may vote against the bill—a move that would effectively paralyze the government’s fiscal plans. With a simple majority of 247 votes required to pass legislation, the ruling coalition’s current 324 seats provide a comfortable buffer. However, if Bhumjaithai’s 69 votes are withheld, the margin narrows dangerously, especially given potential dissent within smaller coalition partners like the Democrats, who hold 25 seats and are rumored to include swing voters.
If the budget bill fails, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s daughter, may face no choice but to dissolve the House of Representatives, triggering a snap election. Such a scenario carries immense risks for Pheu Thai, as public dissatisfaction with coalition infighting could bolster opposition parties like the People’s Party, which commands 143 seats. A dissolution would also test Thaksin’s political capital at a time when his influence, though formidable, is not unchallenged.
Power Dynamics and Possible Outcomes
The current power landscape in the House of Representatives underscores the fragility of the coalition. Beyond Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, smaller partners such as United Thai Nation (36 seats), Klatham (26 seats), and others contribute to the coalition’s numerical strength. Yet, internal divisions—particularly within the Democrat Party, where up to four members are reportedly undecided on key votes—complicate the arithmetic. The opposition bloc, led by the People’s Party alongside smaller groups like Palang Pracharath (19 seats), remains a wildcard, potentially capitalizing on the coalition’s disarray.
One hypothetical scenario involves Pheu Thai attempting to form a new coalition without Bhumjaithai, relying solely on existing partners. This would yield approximately 255 seats—just eight above the majority threshold. However, such a slim margin leaves little room for error, especially with internal dissent a persistent threat. Alternatively, Pheu Thai could seek defectors—often referred to as “cobras” in Thai political slang—from opposition ranks, though this risks public backlash over perceived opportunism.
Another possibility is a temporary truce, with Bhumjaithai extracting concessions in exchange for supporting the budget bill. This could involve policy compromises or enhanced influence over regional development projects, a key area of interest for Newin Chidchob’s power base in Thailand’s northeast. Yet, any such deal would likely be seen as a short-term fix, papering over deeper fissures that could resurface at the next crisis point.
Thaksin’s Dilemma and Public Sentiment
For Thaksin Shinawatra, the stakes could not be higher. Having returned to Thailand in 2023 after years in self-imposed exile, his political maneuvers are under intense scrutiny. While he wields no formal position, his role as Pheu Thai’s guiding force is an open secret, and his daughter’s premiership amplifies perceptions of dynastic control. A collapse of the coalition could tarnish this legacy, raising questions about his ability to navigate Thailand’s fractious political landscape in an era of rising populist and progressive movements.
Public sentiment, meanwhile, appears divided. In Bangkok and urban centers, frustration with coalition infighting is palpable, with many citizens expressing disillusionment over governance gridlock. “We voted for stability, not drama” said a street vendor in the capital’s Chatuchak district, echoing a common refrain. In rural areas, particularly in Bhumjaithai strongholds like Buriram, loyalty to local power brokers such as Newin Chidchob often overshadows national politics, complicating efforts to predict electoral outcomes if a dissolution occurs.
Regional Implications and Beyond
The coalition crisis resonates beyond Thailand’s borders, particularly in a region where political stability is often a prerequisite for economic confidence. Thailand, as Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, plays a pivotal role in ASEAN, and prolonged uncertainty could deter foreign investment at a time when recovery from global economic challenges remains uneven. Neighboring countries like Malaysia and Vietnam, which compete for regional influence, are watching closely, as are international partners concerned about Thailand’s democratic trajectory.
Domestically, the feud underscores broader challenges in Thailand’s political system, where coalitions often prioritize power-sharing over ideological coherence. The Senate election controversy, if unresolved, could further erode trust in electoral institutions, fueling calls for reform from both progressive activists and conservative factions. For now, though, the immediate focus remains on the budget bill and whether Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai can avert a meltdown.
As the special parliamentary session approaches, all eyes are on Thaksin Shinawatra and Newin Chidchob. Will they find a way to bridge their differences, or is Thailand headed for yet another chapter of political upheaval? The answer may well shape the country’s future for years to come.
