Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is navigating a complex landscape of regional tensions and domestic political maneuvering as her administration grapples with a simmering border dispute with Cambodia and a contentious Cabinet reshuffle at home. With economic pressures mounting and coalition dynamics under strain, her leadership faces a critical test in maintaining stability both within and beyond Thailand’s borders.

Border Dispute with Cambodia Intensifies

On the external front, long-standing tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border have flared anew, centered on disputed territories near Ta Moan Thom Temple, Ta Moan Tauch Temple, Ta Krabei Temple, and the Mom Bei area. While the Thai government has prioritized a peaceful resolution through bilateral mechanisms, Cambodia has adopted a more assertive posture, refusing to withdraw troops from areas it claims as sovereign territory and reducing the permitted length of stay for Thai nationals from 60 days to just seven.

In response, Thailand has authorized its military and relevant agencies to implement flexible checkpoint controls, including the temporary opening and closing of border crossings. As a last resort, power cuts have been considered to de-escalate potential clashes between troops on both sides. These measures have temporarily calmed the situation, but the underlying issues remain unresolved. The upcoming meeting of the Thailand-Cambodia Joint Boundary Committee (JBC) in Phnom Penh on June 14, 2025, is seen as a pivotal moment. Analysts warn that failure to reach a compromise could reignite tensions, potentially destabilizing the region further.

The border dispute is not merely a territorial issue but also a matter of national pride and historical grievance for both nations. The contested areas, particularly around the ancient temples, hold cultural and symbolic significance, complicating diplomatic efforts. For Thailand, maintaining sovereignty over these regions is a priority, yet the government under Paetongtarn has emphasized dialogue over confrontation. Cambodian authorities, however, have reiterated their historical claims, pointing to a longstanding presence in the areas as justification for their stance.

Public sentiment in Thailand, as reflected in discussions on social media platforms like X, shows a mix of frustration and cautious support for the government’s restrained approach. Many Thai citizens express concern over the potential for escalation, recalling past skirmishes in the region that resulted in casualties on both sides. If negotiations at the JBC meeting fail to yield progress, the risk of renewed conflict could loom large, testing Paetongtarn’s ability to balance national interests with regional stability.

Domestic Political Pressures Mount

Closer to home, Paetongtarn’s administration is preparing for its first Cabinet reshuffle, a move that has exposed fissures within her ruling coalition. The primary objective appears to be consolidating control over key ministries, with the Interior Ministry emerging as a focal point of contention. The Pheu Thai Party, which leads the coalition, is reportedly seeking to bring the powerful ministry under its direct influence. This has sparked resistance from Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, who has publicly reminded coalition partners that his party was invited into the government under a specific power-sharing agreement.

Anutin’s firm stance signals his unwillingness to relinquish control of the Interior Ministry, which oversees local administration and wields significant influence over national security and public order. His comments underscore deeper tensions within the coalition, where competing interests and historical rivalries threaten to undermine unity. Observers note that Pheu Thai’s push for control may be driven by a desire to strengthen its grip on grassroots political networks ahead of future elections, a strategy that has historically paid dividends for the party.

Adding to the complexity, Deputy Commerce Minister Suchart Chomklin of the United Thai Nation Party has called for a reshuffle that would enhance his party’s representation in the Cabinet. Political analysts interpret this as an attempt to consolidate internal party operations and secure a stronger foothold within the coalition. Suchart’s demand highlights the delicate balancing act Paetongtarn must perform to maintain harmony among coalition partners, each with their own agendas and expectations.

The timing of the reshuffle could not be more challenging. Thailand is grappling with economic difficulties, including rising inflation and sluggish growth in key sectors such as tourism and agriculture. The border tensions with Cambodia further complicate the economic outlook, as cross-border trade and movement of goods face disruptions. Paetongtarn’s ability to address these issues while managing coalition dynamics will be crucial to her administration’s credibility. If internal disputes derail governance, public confidence in her leadership could erode, potentially emboldening opposition forces.

Regional Diplomacy in Focus

Amid these domestic and border challenges, Paetongtarn has also sought to strengthen Thailand’s regional ties. On May 16, 2025, she met with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, at the Party Central Committee office in Hanoi. While specific details of their discussions remain undisclosed, the meeting is seen as part of Thailand’s broader strategy to deepen cooperation with ASEAN neighbors on issues ranging from trade to security. Vietnam, as a key player in the region, offers potential partnerships that could bolster Thailand’s position amid geopolitical uncertainties.

The timing of the Hanoi meeting, just weeks before the escalation of border tensions with Cambodia, suggests that Paetongtarn is keen to build a network of alliances to counterbalance regional frictions. Thailand and Vietnam share a history of pragmatic collaboration within ASEAN, and both nations have a vested interest in maintaining stability in Southeast Asia. However, any tangible outcomes from the meeting remain speculative at this stage, with no official statements confirming specific agreements or initiatives.

For Paetongtarn, fostering such diplomatic ties could serve as a counterweight to domestic criticism over her handling of the border dispute and coalition infighting. A successful foreign policy maneuver might bolster her image as a leader capable of navigating complex regional dynamics. Yet, without concrete results, such engagements risk being perceived as symbolic gestures rather than substantive achievements.

The overlapping crises of border tensions and political reshuffling come at a time when Thailand’s economy is already under strain. The tourism sector, a cornerstone of national revenue, faces uncertainty as border restrictions with Cambodia deter regional travelers. Small businesses in border provinces, reliant on cross-border trade, are particularly vulnerable to disruptions. Reports indicate that the cost of goods in some areas has risen due to delays at checkpoints, with local vendors bearing the brunt of the economic fallout.

At the national level, the government is under pressure to address broader economic challenges, including unemployment and income inequality. The proposed Cabinet reshuffle, if mishandled, could delay critical policy decisions needed to stimulate growth. For instance, infrastructure projects in rural areas, often overseen by the Interior Ministry, could stall if leadership changes disrupt administrative continuity. Such delays would disproportionately affect Thailand’s most marginalized communities, exacerbating social tensions.

Public reaction to these developments remains mixed. Urban centers like Bangkok show growing frustration with the government’s perceived inability to resolve both domestic and international issues swiftly. In rural areas, particularly near the Cambodian border, there is palpable anxiety over the potential for conflict and its impact on livelihoods. Paetongtarn will need to address these concerns directly, possibly through targeted economic relief measures or public assurances of stability, to prevent further erosion of trust.

Looking Ahead

As Paetongtarn Shinawatra navigates these turbulent waters, her administration stands at a crossroads. The outcome of the Thailand-Cambodia Joint Boundary Committee meeting on June 14 will likely set the tone for bilateral relations in the near term, while the Cabinet reshuffle will test her ability to maintain coalition unity. With economic challenges looming large, her leadership must strike a delicate balance between asserting Thailand’s interests and fostering compromise, both at home and abroad.

For now, questions remain about how these dual crises will shape Paetongtarn’s tenure. Can she leverage regional diplomacy to offset domestic discontent? Will coalition infighting derail her government’s agenda at a critical juncture? As Thailand watches and waits, the stakes for stability—both within its borders and beyond—have rarely been higher.