As the world gradually moves past the acute fear of the Covid-19 pandemic, a troubling resurgence of the virus across Southeast Asia and beyond has health experts sounding the alarm. Countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore are reporting significant spikes in cases, driven by new variants and waning public vigilance. With global test positivity rates climbing to levels not seen since mid-2024, the question looms: are we prepared for another wave?
Rising Cases Across the Region
Thailand has reported a staggering 65,880 new Covid-19 cases between May 25 and 30, alongside three fatalities, signaling a sharp uptick in infections. Singapore, often lauded for its robust health response, recorded over 14,000 cases in just one week from April 27 to May 3. Malaysia’s Health Ministry noted an average of 600 cases per week between April 14 and May 10, with a cumulative total of over 11,000 cases since the start of 2025. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Health Ministry has issued public advisories urging caution as cases climb not only domestically but across Asia.
The resurgence isn’t confined to Southeast Asia. Hong Kong and the United States have also reported increases linked to the NB.1.8.1 variant, classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a variant under monitoring (VUM). According to WHO data released on May 28, global SARS-CoV-2 activity has been rising since February, with test positivity rates reaching 11%—a level unmatched since July 2024. The Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and Western Pacific regions are bearing the brunt of this surge.
New Variants and Waning Immunity
Health experts point to a combination of factors driving the resurgence. Professor Dr. Sharifa Ezat Wan Puteh, a public health specialist from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, highlighted the role of public complacency. “People have become lax as Covid-19 is no longer seen as a major threat now” she said. She warned of the virus’s ability to mutate, with new variants like NB.1.8.1 proving highly transmissible, though not necessarily more virulent or likely to cause severe outcomes such as hospitalization or death.
Dr. Sharifa emphasized that current vaccines still offer protection against the dominant strains, urging high-risk groups—such as the elderly, young children, pregnant women, and those with comorbidities—to remain vigilant. “High-risk groups should wear a mask when they are outdoors or if they develop symptoms” she advised. She also noted that symptoms of the new variant often include fever, cough, sore throat, fatigue, headache, and gastrointestinal distress, which can mimic other respiratory illnesses like influenza or adenovirus.
Datuk Dr. Zainal Ariffin Omar, a former Health Ministry official and public health expert in Malaysia, echoed these concerns, attributing the rise in cases to decreasing immunity from both natural infections and vaccinations. “People no longer observe precautionary measures like before” he observed, pointing to a broader societal shift in attitudes toward the virus.
Challenges in Diagnosis and Public Response
One of the complicating factors in managing this resurgence is the overlap of Covid-19 symptoms with other respiratory conditions. As Dr. Sharifa noted, “If you have Covid-19-like symptoms, it could also be adenovirus, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), and/or influenza.” She advised testing to confirm the diagnosis and seeking medical attention if symptoms worsen, particularly to rule out complications like pneumonia. While co-infections are rare, they remain a possibility, adding another layer of complexity to public health responses.
In many countries, the infrastructure for tracking and responding to Covid-19 has scaled back. In Malaysia, for instance, mandatory reporting through apps like MySejahtera is no longer required, reflecting a broader global trend of treating Covid-19 as an endemic rather than pandemic threat. However, this shift may leave gaps in surveillance. WHO has cautioned that a lack of clear seasonality in SARS-CoV-2 circulation, combined with limited global surveillance, makes it difficult to predict or prepare for future waves.
Global and Regional Implications
The current spike in cases mirrors levels seen during the same period in 2024, according to WHO, suggesting that periodic resurgences may become a recurring challenge. The organization has urged member states to adopt a risk-based, integrated approach to managing Covid-19, emphasizing the importance of continued monitoring and public health messaging. In Southeast Asia, where densely populated urban centers and varying healthcare capacities complicate containment efforts, the stakes are particularly high.
India, too, is grappling with a rising caseload, with active Covid-19 numbers surpassing 4,000 as of early June 2025. States like Telangana are ramping up preparations, with hospitals in cities such as Secunderabad establishing isolation wards to manage patients with symptoms. This mirrors efforts across the region, where governments are balancing the need to maintain normalcy with the imperative to protect public health.
Public Health Recommendations
Experts are unanimous in their call for renewed public awareness. For individuals with non-communicable diseases (NCDs), maintaining medication schedules is critical to reducing vulnerability. Testing remains a key tool, with antigen tests widely available for at-home use, though more severe cases may require chest X-rays or blood tests to confirm diagnoses. The message from health authorities is clear: while Covid-19 may no longer dominate headlines, it hasn’t disappeared.
WHO’s latest data shows that the circulation of older variants like LP.8.1 is declining, while NB.1.8.1 now accounts for 10.7% of global sequences reported as of mid-May. Though this variant doesn’t appear to pose a heightened risk of severe illness, its transmissibility underscores the need for sustained vigilance. Governments in the region are responding with advisories and, in some cases, enhanced healthcare preparations, but the effectiveness of these measures will depend on public cooperation.
Looking Ahead
As Southeast Asia navigates this latest wave of Covid-19, the interplay between evolving variants, public behavior, and health policy will shape the trajectory of the virus. While vaccines and prior infections provide a buffer against severe outcomes for many, the risk to vulnerable populations remains a pressing concern. With global surveillance still limited, the region stands at a crossroads—will complacency give way to caution, or will another wave catch us off guard?
For now, the resurgence serves as a reminder that the fight against Covid-19 is far from over. Across bustling cities like Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Jakarta, the virus continues to test the resilience of communities and the readiness of health systems. How governments and citizens respond in the coming weeks may well determine whether this spike is a fleeting challenge or the precursor to a broader crisis.