Thailand’s tourism industry, a cornerstone of the nation’s economy, is grappling with a significant downturn in 2025, as international arrivals dropped by 5% in the first half of the year compared to 2024. From January 1 to July 5, the country welcomed 16.8 million foreign tourists, a stark contrast to the robust figures of previous years. The decline is largely attributed to a sharp fall in visitors from China, once Thailand’s largest source market, now overtaken by Malaysia. However, while Malaysian tourists outnumber their Chinese counterparts, their lower spending power poses a fresh challenge to Thailand’s ambitious revenue targets.
A Shifting Tourist Landscape
The composition of Thailand’s tourist market has undergone a dramatic shift in 2025. Of the 16.8 million arrivals, 67.1% hailed from short-haul markets, primarily in East Asia, while 32.9% came from long-haul destinations. Yet, short-haul arrivals have declined by 12.2%, with East Asia experiencing a particularly steep drop of 24.81%. The most significant contributor to this downturn is the reduction in Chinese tourists, whose numbers have plummeted by 34.23% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, when 11.1 million Chinese visitors accounted for 28% of Thailand’s 39.8 million total arrivals.
Currently, Chinese tourists represent just 13.58% of Thailand’s inbound traffic. If this trend persists, projections suggest that only 4 to 5 million Chinese visitors will arrive in 2025, marking the lowest figure in over a decade, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic years. This decline has profound implications for Thailand’s economy, as Chinese tourists have historically been high spenders, staying an average of 7.36 days and spending approximately 42,428 Thai Baht (~US$1,190) per trip. 
In contrast, Malaysia has emerged as the top source market, with 2.36 million visitors compared to China’s 2.32 million. However, Malaysian tourists spend significantly less, averaging 21,450 Thai Baht (~US$602) per trip over shorter stays of 4.17 days. This disparity in spending power underscores a critical challenge: while numbers from nearby markets may bolster arrival statistics, they fail to compensate for the revenue lost from the Chinese market.
Competing Destinations and Safety Concerns
Several factors contribute to the decline in Chinese tourism to Thailand. Safety concerns have played a prominent role, with perceptions of risk deterring potential visitors. Reports of incidents involving tourists, coupled with negative media coverage, have tarnished Thailand’s reputation as a safe destination among Chinese travelers. Additionally, Thailand faces intensified competition from regional rivals such as Japan and Vietnam, which have become increasingly attractive to Chinese tourists.
Japan, benefiting from a depreciated yen, has seen over 3.1 million Chinese visitors in 2025, surpassing Thailand’s figures. Vietnam, bolstered by favorable exchange rates against the stronger Thai Baht, has also emerged as a popular alternative. These shifts in travel preferences highlight the structural challenges Thailand must address to regain its competitive edge in the region.
Long-Haul Markets Offer Hope, but Not Enough
Amid the decline in short-haul arrivals, long-haul markets have provided a silver lining, growing by 14.88% compared to the previous year. Tourists from countries such as India, Japan, Singapore, Australia, South Korea, the UK, and the US have shown increased interest in Thailand, with average spending per trip reaching 81,482 Thai Baht (~US$2,286), significantly higher than the 50,000 Thai Baht (~US$1,403) spent by short-haul visitors. However, long-haul tourists constitute only 28% of total arrivals, a volume insufficient to offset the revenue shortfall caused by the drop in Chinese visitors.
Moreover, global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions have led to more cautious spending behaviors among long-haul travelers. While their higher per-person expenditure offers some relief, it cannot fully bridge the gap left by the once-dominant Chinese market.
Economic Impact and Missed Targets
The decline in Chinese tourist numbers has dealt a severe blow to Thailand’s tourism revenue targets for 2025. The loss of high-spending visitors from China, who previously contributed significantly to the economy, has raised concerns among industry leaders. Yuthasak Supasorn, former Governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), emphasized the urgency of addressing this downturn. “The Chinese market is vital, and we need to quickly pursue an aggressive marketing strategy. Rebuilding the 1 million Chinese tourists who have stopped coming could bring in 40-50 billion baht to the Thai economy. Thailand must urgently address safety concerns, introduce new selling points, and utilise promotions and value-driven offers to attract Chinese tourists back,” he said, as reported by local sources on July 10, 2025.
Without a robust recovery in Chinese arrivals, Thailand risks falling short of its goals for both tourist numbers and revenue. The global economic slowdown further complicates the situation, dampening hopes for a quick rebound even from other growing markets like South Asia, Europe, the US, and the Middle East.
Strategies for Recovery
To reverse the current trend, Thailand must adopt a multifaceted approach. Addressing safety concerns is paramount, as rebuilding trust among Chinese travelers will require targeted campaigns and visible improvements in security measures. Collaborative efforts between the government and the private sector could help reshape perceptions through positive storytelling and enhanced safety protocols at popular tourist destinations.
Additionally, Thailand could benefit from diversifying its appeal by promoting lesser-known destinations and unique cultural experiences. Tailored marketing strategies focusing on value-driven offers, as suggested by industry experts, could entice budget-conscious Chinese travelers while maintaining appeal to high-spending long-haul markets. Partnerships with regional airlines and travel platforms might also facilitate competitive pricing and accessibility, countering the draw of destinations like Japan and Vietnam.
Investing in digital marketing to engage with younger Chinese demographics through social media platforms popular in China, such as WeChat and Douyin, could further bolster Thailand’s visibility. Highlighting sustainable tourism initiatives and eco-friendly attractions might also resonate with evolving traveler preferences, positioning Thailand as a forward-thinking destination.
Broader Implications for Thailand’s Economy
Tourism accounts for a substantial portion of Thailand’s GDP, and the current challenges in the sector reverberate across related industries, including hospitality, retail, and transportation. Small businesses in tourist-heavy areas like Bangkok, Phuket, and Chiang Mai, which rely heavily on international visitors, face mounting pressures as footfall declines. The ripple effect of reduced tourist spending could hinder economic growth, particularly in regions dependent on the industry.
Furthermore, the shift in market dynamics underscores the need for Thailand to reduce its reliance on any single source market. While the growth in long-haul arrivals and emerging markets offers a buffer, a more balanced and diversified tourist portfolio is essential for long-term resilience. Policymakers may need to explore incentives for high-spending demographics while simultaneously addressing structural issues like currency strength and regional competition.
Looking Ahead
As Thailand navigates this turbulent period, the path to recovery remains uncertain. The loss of Chinese tourists, compounded by global economic headwinds, poses a formidable challenge to an industry still healing from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. While positive signs from other markets provide some optimism, they are not yet sufficient to fill the void left by China’s diminished presence.
The coming months will be critical for Thailand’s tourism sector. Whether through innovative marketing, enhanced safety measures, or strategic partnerships, the country must act swiftly to reclaim its position as a premier global destination. As reforms and initiatives unfold, the economic implications of these efforts will be closely watched by stakeholders across the region.
