As President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. prepares to deliver his fourth State of the Nation Address (SONA) on July 25, 2025, the spotlight is firmly on his administration’s performance and future roadmap. Entering the second half of his presidency, Marcos faces intense scrutiny over unfulfilled promises, fluctuating public trust, and the political reverberations of former President Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague for alleged crimes against humanity. With domestic challenges like inflation and underemployment persisting, alongside a fractured alliance with Vice President Sara Duterte, the address offers a critical opportunity for Marcos to redefine his leadership and address the nation’s pressing concerns.
A Presidency Under Scrutiny
Marcos assumed office in 2022 with a strong mandate, buoyed by public optimism and ambitious pledges. Among these was a highly publicized promise to reduce the price of rice to 20 Philippine Pesos per kilo (approximately US$0.35 as of July 2025), a tangible goal that resonated with ordinary Filipinos struggling with rising costs. However, three years into his term, this commitment remains unmet, contributing to a perception of underachievement.
Jean Encinas Franco, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, highlighted this gap between expectation and delivery in a recent interview with a local outlet. She noted that while Marcos entered office with significant public support, his administration has struggled to translate promises into palpable results. Franco pointed to the rice price pledge as a particularly visible benchmark, one that Filipinos could easily monitor and feel in their daily lives. Its failure to materialize has dented his image as a leader attuned to the masses’ needs. 
Beyond specific policy failures, broader economic indicators paint a mixed picture. The average inflation rate in the Philippines stood at 5.8% in 2022, peaking at 8.1% in December of that year—the highest since November 2008, according to government data. While inflation eased to 6.0% in 2023 and further to 3.2% in 2024, it remains a top concern for many Filipinos. Underemployment, another persistent issue, saw a slight improvement to 13.1% in May 2025 from 14.6% the previous month, as reported by the Philippine Statistics Authority. Yet, Franco emphasized that many Filipinos still seek higher wages, reflecting ongoing economic discontent.
The Duterte Factor: Political Gain or Liability?
The arrest of Rodrigo Duterte by the ICC earlier in 2025 has added a complex layer to Marcos’ presidency. Duterte, whose administration’s brutal war on drugs drew international condemnation, was detained in The Hague to face allegations of crimes against humanity. This development has deepened the rift between Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte, Rodrigo’s daughter and a key figure in the former Uniteam alliance that propelled Marcos to power in 2022.
Politically, the arrest has yielded mixed outcomes for Marcos. Franco observed that while it has alienated some of Duterte’s loyal base, particularly in Mindanao where the family holds significant sway, it has also garnered Marcos support among those who did not vote for him in 2022. These individuals appear to approve of his administration’s stance on holding Duterte accountable, as well as ongoing investigations involving Sara Duterte. However, this shift in public perception has not fully offset the backlash, as evidenced by a dip in Marcos’ trust rating to 60% in April 2025 from 65% in November 2024, according to local surveys. Satisfaction with his performance also stood at 59% during this period, reflecting regional discontent, particularly in Mindanao.
More recent data from a Social Weather Stations survey in June 2025 offers a glimmer of recovery, with Marcos’ trust rating rebounding to 48% from a low of 38% in May. Yet, Franco cautioned that Sara Duterte’s public criticisms of Marcos are unlikely to significantly undermine his leadership, suggesting that the vice president’s influence may be limited in swaying broader public opinion against him.
Legislative Roadmap and Economic Reforms
As Marcos prepares to address the nation, expectations are high for a clear articulation of his achievements and future plans. Franco underscored the importance of this moment, warning that failure to project strength and control could render Marcos a lame duck president whose endorsement in the 2028 elections might carry little weight. She urged him to demonstrate command over his relationship with the legislative branch and to prioritize addressing inflation and underemployment—issues that directly impact Filipinos’ quality of life.
The business community is also watching closely. On July 21, 2025, the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) called on Marcos to support 20 key legislative reforms aimed at boosting competitiveness, enhancing infrastructure, and streamlining regulations. PCCI President Enunina Mangio emphasized the need to tackle structural bottlenecks hindering investment, logistics, rural development, and regulatory efficiency. Among the proposed measures are the Konektadong Pinoy Act to improve nationwide internet access, a National Comprehensive Infrastructure Masterplan for long-term investments, and amendments to the Magna Carta for micro, small, and medium enterprises.
These reforms align with broader calls for modernization and economic stability, themes likely to feature prominently in Marcos’ SONA. Whether he can translate such proposals into actionable policies remains a critical question, especially given past challenges in delivering on high-profile commitments.
Contentious Issues: Online Gambling Ban
Another focal point of the upcoming address is Marcos’ stance on online gambling, following his 2024 SONA announcement of a ban on Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs). This decision was framed as a solution to various social and economic problems tied to the industry, including crime and regulatory loopholes. Now, advocacy groups and lawmakers are pressing for a broader prohibition on all forms of online gambling, arguing that it would further curb associated ills.
The issue remains under deliberation, with Palace press officer Claire Castro stating on July 15, 2025, that Marcos is thoroughly studying the implications of a total ban. Castro stressed that such a decision cannot be rushed, given its potential economic and social ramifications. Public anticipation is high, as many await clarity on whether Marcos will expand the POGO ban or maintain a more cautious approach in his 2025 address.
A Defining Moment
Marcos’ fourth SONA is more than a routine address; it is a pivotal moment to reshape public perception and solidify his legacy. With trust ratings fluctuating and political alliances fraying, he must balance the need to acknowledge past shortcomings with a compelling vision for the future. Economic challenges like inflation and underemployment demand concrete solutions, while legislative priorities outlined by stakeholders such as the PCCI underscore the urgency of structural reform.
The fallout from Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest continues to reverberate, offering both opportunities and risks for Marcos. While it has broadened his appeal among some segments of the population, it has also intensified regional divisions and strained ties with Sara Duterte. Navigating this delicate political landscape will require strategic communication and decisive action—qualities Franco believes Marcos must project to avoid being seen as a weak leader.
As the nation tunes in on July 25, 2025, the stakes could not be higher. Marcos’ ability to address these multifaceted challenges head-on will likely determine whether his administration can regain momentum in the latter half of his term. With critical issues hanging in the balance, from economic recovery to contentious policy decisions, the question remains: can Marcos deliver the results Filipinos have been waiting for?
