The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), a region in the southern Philippines, stands at a pivotal moment as it prepares for its first-ever Parliament elections on October 13, 2025. With heightened security measures in place, a stalled peace process, and persistent threats from insurgent groups, authorities and residents alike are bracing for potential unrest in an area long marked by electoral violence and political tension. The elections represent a historic step toward self-governance for the region, established under a 2014 peace agreement, but the path to stability remains fraught with challenges.
Security Tightened for a Volatile Vote
As BARMM approaches this landmark election, the Philippine National Police (PNP) has mobilized significant resources to prevent violence. A force of 10,000 officers has been deployed across the region, as announced by PNP chief Gen. Nicolas Torre III during a press briefing in Quezon City on August 18, 2025. A gun ban, enforced from August 14 to October 28, forms a key part of the strategy to curb potential clashes, following a resolution by the Commission on Elections (Comelec). Torre noted that 94 towns in BARMM have been flagged as election hotspots, with 29 areas classified under the “red category” for high risk of violence. Two towns, Buluan in Maguindanao del Sur and Datu Odin Sinsuat in Maguindanao del Norte, have been placed under direct Comelec control due to elevated security concerns.
The region’s history of election-related violence, often fueled by private armed groups, justifies these stringent measures. Local reports, corroborated by data from Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA), reveal a grim statistic: 219 deaths were recorded in BARMM during the midterm elections on May 12, 2025, linked to clashes that began with the filing of candidacies in October 2024. The PNP’s commitment to a safe electoral process is clear, with Torre asserting that all necessary precautions are in place to ensure a peaceful and credible vote. 
Yet, the scale of the challenge is immense. BARMM, encompassing parts of Mindanao and nearby islands, has long been a hotspot for clan rivalries and armed conflict, often exacerbated during election periods. The deployment of security forces, while substantial, must contend with deeply rooted issues of mistrust and the presence of weapons despite the ban. As the region prepares for this historic vote, the effectiveness of these measures will be tested in real-time.
A Peace Process on Shaky Ground
Beyond the immediate concerns of electoral violence, the elections unfold against the backdrop of a faltering peace process, a cornerstone of BARMM’s creation. The 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB), signed between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), aimed to end decades of conflict by granting autonomy to the region and disarming MILF combatants. However, the final phase of this decommissioning process has hit a significant roadblock.
On July 19, 2025, the MILF’s Central Committee issued a resolution suspending the decommissioning of 14,000 combatants and 2,575 weapons, citing the government’s failure to deliver promised socioeconomic support for 26,145 previously decommissioned fighters. Since 2015, only 4,625 weapons have been turned over, a fraction of the 40,000 targeted under the CAB. Tensions escalated further when MILF chairman Al Haj Murad Ebrahim issued a memorandum on August 16, 2025, prohibiting commanders and officials from engaging in decommissioning activities without prior approval, warning of severe disciplinary action for violations.
This standoff reflects deep frustrations within the MILF over the government’s progress on the normalization track of the CAB, particularly regarding socioeconomic packages meant to reintegrate former fighters into civilian life. The Office of the Presidential Adviser on Peace, Reconciliation, and Unity (OPAPRU) has pushed back against these claims, insisting that obligations have been met, though specifics remain scarce in verified accounts. The suspension of decommissioning raises serious questions about regional stability, as unresolved grievances could reignite tensions in a region still grappling with active private armed groups.
For BARMM’s interim chief minister, Abdulraof Macacua, the challenge is twofold: ensuring a credible election while maintaining the fragile peace framework. The government and MILF must find common ground to prevent further erosion of trust, a task made more urgent by the high stakes of the upcoming vote. Without renewed dialogue and tangible progress, the aspirations of the CAB risk being undermined at a critical juncture.
Insurgent Threats Add to Regional Volatility
Compounding the region’s challenges is the persistent threat posed by insurgent groups, a reminder of BARMM’s complex security landscape. A recent operation on August 16, 2025, in Maimbung, Sulu, highlighted the ongoing danger. Alganer Dahim, a former Abu Sayyaf leader and Sulu’s second most wanted person, was killed in a shootout with police and military forces. Dahim, wanted for 33 criminal cases including a 2009 ambush on a provincial police director, attacked security teams with a grenade and gunfire, wounding four soldiers before being neutralized.
The incident, reported widely in local outlets, underscores the enduring presence of groups like Abu Sayyaf, which continue to operate in parts of BARMM despite years of counterinsurgency efforts. While the group’s influence has waned since its peak, such clashes serve as a stark warning of the potential for violence to disrupt not only daily life but also the electoral process. Security forces must now balance their focus between election-related risks and the broader threat of insurgency, a dual challenge that stretches resources and strategic planning.
The death of Dahim may represent a tactical victory for authorities, but it also highlights the broader issue of radicalization and armed resistance in the region. As long as such groups retain the capacity to strike, BARMM’s journey toward lasting peace remains incomplete, with the elections serving as both an opportunity and a potential flashpoint for further unrest.
A Defining Moment for BARMM’s Future
The convergence of election-related tensions, a stalled peace process, and insurgent activity places BARMM at a defining moment. The region’s history of violence—electoral and otherwise—casts a long shadow over the upcoming vote, amplifying the need for both robust security and diplomatic efforts. The PNP’s deployment and gun ban are critical steps toward preventing a repeat of past bloodshed, but they address only part of the equation. The deeper issues of trust, governance, and socioeconomic support for former combatants remain unresolved, threatening to undermine the democratic aspirations embedded in BARMM’s creation.
The inaugural Parliament elections are more than a procedural milestone; they are a test of the region’s institutions and the commitment of all stakeholders to a shared vision of peace. For the Philippine government, the MILF, and BARMM’s residents, the coming weeks offer a chance to demonstrate resilience and cooperation. Yet, the obstacles are formidable. Strengthened security measures can mitigate immediate risks, but without renewed dialogue on the peace process, the underlying tensions may simmer beyond the ballot box.
As BARMM approaches this historic vote, the question looms large: can the region navigate its myriad challenges to achieve a peaceful and credible election, or will unresolved issues derail its path to stability? The answer will shape not only the outcome of October 13 but also the broader trajectory of peace and governance in one of the Philippines’ most restive regions.
