In a decisive push to bolster its defense capabilities, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has endorsed a call by Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. to expedite the military’s modernization program. This urgency stems from evolving security challenges in the West Philippine Sea and rapid technological advancements, underscoring Manila’s determination to strengthen its position amid growing regional tensions, particularly with China.
Urgent Need for Modernization
The AFP’s modernization program, first initiated under Republic Act 7898 in 1995 and later updated by Republic Act 10349 in 2012, is structured into three phases, or horizons spanning from 2013 to 2028. The current phase, dubbed Re-horizon 3 by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., began in 2023 with a substantial budget of 2 trillion Philippine Pesos (~US$35.5 billion) to be implemented over the next decade. This phase prioritizes advanced capabilities, including multi-role fighters, missile systems, and enhanced command and control assets, to fortify the country’s defense posture.
Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad, AFP spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, emphasized the necessity of accelerating these efforts. He noted that horizon planning has been underway since 1992, but shifts in technology and the operating environment have heightened the need for speed. The proposed 2026 national budget allocates 40 billion Philippine Pesos (~US$710 million) for modernization, a 5 billion Pesos (~US$89 million) increase from the guaranteed 35 billion Pesos (~US$621 million) in 2025, signaling the government’s commitment to this overhaul. 
Defense Secretary Teodoro has also expressed intentions to amend the existing AFP modernization law, describing it as overly impractical in the face of modern warfare’s rapid evolution. Drawing parallels with Ukraine, where constant retooling of armaments is required every few months due to innovations like artificial intelligence and unmanned aerial vehicles, Teodoro highlighted the need for agility in military upgrades. AFP spokesperson Colonel Francel Margareth Padilla reinforced this perspective, noting that the modernization process typically spans a decade and is executed in phases, a timeline increasingly misaligned with contemporary challenges.
Regional Tensions and Strategic Alliances
The push for modernization coincides with heightened tensions in the West Philippine Sea, a contested region within the broader South China Sea where the Philippines faces aggressive actions from Chinese vessels. Incidents near Scarborough Shoal, involving confrontations between Chinese forces and Philippine and Australian naval units, have underscored the urgency of enhancing territorial defense capabilities. Manila’s exclusive economic zone, claimed by Beijing under its expansive 10-dash line, remains a flashpoint, prompting the Philippines to seek stronger international partnerships.
A significant development in this context is the upcoming defense cooperation agreement with Australia, announced following the second Australia-Philippines defense ministerial meeting in Manila. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles and Secretary Teodoro pledged to elevate bilateral ties, with plans for Australian forces to access Philippine military bases. The agreement includes provisions for Australia to construct, use, upgrade, and maintain defense infrastructure at select locations across the archipelago, while ensuring Philippine sovereignty over all sites.
This arrangement mirrors the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States, which allows American forces rotational access to Philippine bases and has facilitated investments like airfield upgrades at Basa Air Base northwest of Manila. For Australia, the deal expands its regional footprint, complementing existing deployments under the 1971 Five Powers Defense Arrangements with Malaysia, Singapore, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Royal Australian Air Force P-8A Poseidon aircraft, often stationed at bases like Butterworth in Malaysia, have conducted maritime patrols over the South China Sea from Philippine locations such as Clark Air Base, occasionally drawing aggressive responses from Chinese fighters.
Australian aircraft, operating from Philippine bases such as Clark Air Base, have conducted maritime patrols over the South China Sea, a region marked by escalating incidents between Chinese and Philippine forces. These missions have provoked strong responses from Beijing, which has deployed fighter jets to challenge aircraft. A notable 2022 incident, in which a Chinese J-16 fighter dangerously intercepted an Australian Royal Air Force P-8A Poseidon, underscores the intensity of tensions in these contested waters.
Balancing Sovereignty and Foreign Collaboration
The Philippine Constitution of 1987 explicitly prohibits permanent foreign military basing, a policy rooted in the post-Cold War closure of U.S. facilities at Subic Bay and Clark Air Base. As a result, agreements with allies like the U.S. and Australia focus on rotational deployments and joint training rather than permanent presence. The joint statement from the Australia-Philippines meeting emphasized that all cooperative projects would align with Manila’s sovereignty and ownership, aiming to enhance interoperability and collective defense capabilities under the Philippines’ Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept.
These international partnerships are critical to Manila’s strategy. Alongside Australia and the U.S., Japan has emerged as a key supporter, with joint naval patrols involving warships from all three nations frequently conducted alongside Philippine forces in contested waters. The Alon series of exercises, a bilateral initiative with Australia, further strengthens this collaboration. In the 2025 iteration, Australian forces rehearsed joint amphibious operations and mass airlift missions into the Philippines, focusing on territorial defense scenarios directly relevant to current geopolitical challenges.
Technological and Strategic Implications
The AFP’s modernization is not merely a response to immediate threats but a long-term investment in resilience. The integration of cutting-edge technologies, such as drones and advanced missile systems, positions the Philippines to adapt to a rapidly changing security landscape. However, the decade-long timeline for completing modernization phases, as noted by Colonel Padilla, raises questions about whether the pace can match the immediacy of regional threats. The example of Ukraine, where technological adaptation occurs on a near-quarterly basis, serves as a stark reminder of the need for flexibility in defense planning.
Moreover, the Philippines’ strategic alliances, while bolstering its military capacity, must navigate domestic sensitivities around sovereignty. Public and political discourse often scrutinizes foreign military presence, even in rotational forms, due to historical experiences with colonial and foreign powers. Ensuring that agreements with Australia and other partners are perceived as equitable and respectful of national autonomy will be crucial for sustaining public support for these initiatives.
Looking Ahead
As the Philippines accelerates its military modernization and deepens ties with allies like Australia, the balance between rapid adaptation and sovereign control remains a central challenge. The increased budget allocations and legislative push for reform signal a strong political will to address security concerns, particularly in the West Philippine Sea. Yet, the effectiveness of these measures will depend on their implementation speed and the ability to integrate new technologies without compromising national interests.
With regional tensions showing no signs of abating, Manila’s partnerships with the U.S., Japan, and Australia will likely intensify, potentially reshaping the geopolitical dynamics of Southeast Asia. Whether these efforts can deter aggression and secure the Philippines’ territorial claims remains an open question, one that will define the nation’s defense strategy in the years ahead.
