Thailand stands on the brink of yet another political upheaval as the Constitutional Court prepares to deliver a verdict today on the fate of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The decision, expected at 3 p.m. local time (0800 GMT), could see her dismissed after just a year in office, plunging the country into further uncertainty at a time when its coalition government is already teetering and its economy struggles to recover. The case, rooted in a leaked phone conversation with Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen during a tense border standoff, has ignited public outrage and exposed the fragile fault lines of Thai politics.
A Leaked Call and a Border Crisis
Paetongtarn, the 39-year-old daughter of billionaire and political heavyweight Thaksin Shinawatra, faces accusations of ethical violations stemming from a phone call in June with Hun Sen. At the time, Thailand and Cambodia were on the verge of armed conflict over a disputed border region. In the leaked conversation, Paetongtarn appeared to adopt a conciliatory tone toward the former Cambodian leader, a move that many in Thailand interpreted as a sign of weakness or submission. The public backlash was swift, with protests erupting across the country and nationalists decrying what they saw as a betrayal of national interests.
In response, Paetongtarn issued a public apology, asserting that her intention was to de-escalate tensions and prevent loss of life. While fighting did break out along the border weeks after the call, a ceasefire has since been established. However, the damage to her political standing may prove irreparable, as her coalition government now hangs by a thread, with key allies distancing themselves and public trust severely eroded. 
The Shinawatra Legacy and the Court’s Role
The Constitutional Court’s decision carries weight beyond Paetongtarn’s individual fate. If dismissed, she would become the fifth Thai prime minister in 17 years to be ousted by the court, a stark reminder of the judiciary’s outsized role in the nation’s turbulent political landscape. The Shinawatra family, a dominant force in Thai politics for decades, has faced relentless challenges, including two military coups and the collapse of three governments aligned with their political dynasty. Thaksin himself was overthrown in a 2006 coup and later lived in self-imposed exile to avoid corruption charges, while his sister Yingluck Shinawatra was removed from office in 2014 by the same court now deciding Paetongtarn’s fate.
This long-running power struggle pits the Shinawatra-aligned Pheu Thai party and its populist base against a conservative establishment that includes the military, monarchy, and judiciary. The court, often seen as a tool of the elite to curb populist leaders, has repeatedly intervened in political disputes, deepening public divisions and fueling cycles of unrest. For many Thais, the verdict will be less about Paetongtarn’s actions and more about whether the system allows elected leaders to govern without constant interference from unelected institutions.
Political Fallout: A Leadership Vacuum?
Should the court rule against Paetongtarn, Thailand could face weeks or even months of political horse-trading as parliament scrambles to select a new prime minister. Under the current rules, only candidates nominated before the 2023 general election are eligible to assume the role. This limits the pool to just five individuals, creating a narrow and contentious field.
Among them is Chaikasem Nitisiri, a 77-year-old former attorney general and the sole candidate from Pheu Thai. Despite his legal background, Chaikasem lacks significant cabinet experience, raising questions about his ability to navigate the complex alliances needed to form a stable government. Other potential contenders include Prayuth Chan-ocha, the former prime minister who led the 2014 coup against Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration and has since retired from politics, and Anutin Charnvirakul, a former deputy prime minister who recently withdrew his Bhumjaithai Party from Paetongtarn’s coalition in protest over the leaked phone call.
Political scientist Stithorn Thananithichot from Chulalongkorn University warns that the process of appointing a new leader will be fraught with difficulty. “It’s not easy for all parties to align their interests” he noted, highlighting the fractured nature of Thailand’s political alliances. He suggested that Pheu Thai could find itself at a significant disadvantage in negotiations, with bargaining power shifting to smaller coalition partners or even opposition factions eager to capitalize on the crisis.
A Fragile Coalition and a Flagging Economy
Even if Paetongtarn survives the court’s judgment, her political future remains precarious. Her coalition holds only a razor-thin majority in parliament, and the fallout from the leaked call has cost her significant credibility. Nationalists who view her actions as a compromise of Thailand’s sovereignty may continue to mobilize protests, while parliamentary challenges could paralyze her administration’s ability to govern effectively.
Analysts point to the broader implications for Thailand’s economy, which has struggled to regain momentum after years of political instability and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Paetongtarn’s government has faced criticism for its inability to push through promised reforms and stimulus measures, with public frustration mounting over rising costs and stagnant wages. A prolonged leadership crisis or a weakened administration could further delay critical economic policies, deepening public discontent.
“The government would be unstable” Stithorn observed, reflecting on the potential for ongoing turmoil even if Paetongtarn remains in power. He argued that the prime minister’s loss of credibility following the leak has left her vulnerable to both internal and external challenges, making effective governance an uphill battle.
Regional Implications and Public Sentiment
The border dispute with Cambodia, which lies at the heart of this controversy, underscores the delicate balance of regional diplomacy in Southeast Asia. Thailand and Cambodia have a history of tensions over territorial claims, particularly around the Preah Vihear temple, a UNESCO World Heritage site that has been a flashpoint for decades. While the recent ceasefire offers a temporary reprieve, the incident has reignited debates over how Thai leaders should engage with neighboring states, especially under the scrutiny of a nationalist domestic audience.
Public sentiment in Thailand remains deeply divided. Supporters of Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai argue that her outreach to Hun Sen was a pragmatic move to prevent escalation, potentially saving lives on both sides of the border. Critics, however, see it as a capitulation that undermines Thailand’s sovereignty and emboldens its neighbors. Social media platforms have amplified these divisions, with heated discussions reflecting the broader polarization that has defined Thai politics for years.
A Nation at a Crossroads
As the Constitutional Court’s verdict looms, Thailand finds itself at a familiar crossroads. The decision will not only determine Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s immediate future but also shape the trajectory of the Shinawatra dynasty and the broader struggle between populist forces and the conservative establishment. Whether she is dismissed or allowed to remain, the outcome is likely to deepen existing divisions, with protests, parliamentary gridlock, or a drawn-out leadership contest all on the horizon.
For now, the nation waits with bated breath. The clock is ticking toward 3 p.m., when the court’s ruling will set the stage for the next chapter in Thailand’s seemingly endless political drama. As the stakes rise, one question lingers: can Thailand break free from the cycles of crisis that have defined its recent history, or will this verdict simply mark another turn in a long and unresolved power struggle?
