Philippines Completes Resupply Mission at Ayungin Shoal Amid Tensions with China

The Philippines successfully conducted a resupply mission to its troops stationed at the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting military outpost grounded at Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal in the West Philippine Sea, on 4 March 2025. The operation, the second of its kind this year, was completed without interference from Chinese vessels, marking a rare moment of calm in a region long marred by maritime tensions between Manila and Beijing.

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) confirmed that the rotation and resupply (Rore) mission, carried out in coordination with the Philippine Coast Guard, proceeded without any “untoward incident,” despite the presence of several Chinese vessels in the vicinity. This stands in stark contrast to previous missions, including a violent encounter on 17 June 2024, when China Coast Guard personnel reportedly used weapons and aggressive tactics to disrupt a similar operation, injuring a Filipino sailor.

Ayungin Shoal, located approximately 200 kilometres from Palawan province, remains a flashpoint in the broader South China Sea dispute, where overlapping territorial claims have fuelled decades of friction. The successful mission underscores Manila’s determination to assert its sovereign rights in the face of Beijing’s expansive claims, which were deemed baseless by an international arbitral tribunal in 2016—a ruling China continues to reject.

A Delicate Balance in the West Philippine Sea

The latest resupply operation to the BRP Sierra Madre, a deliberately grounded World War II-era ship serving as a Philippine military outpost since 1999, reflects a fragile equilibrium in the region. Col. Xerxes Trinidad, chief of the AFP’s public affairs office, emphasised the military’s commitment to supporting its personnel in the West Philippine Sea while upholding the country’s sovereignty “not only for today’s generation but for those to come.”

Filipino troops monitored multiple Chinese vessels during the mission but completed the operation without confrontation. Images and footage released by the AFP showed the MV Lapu-Lapu docked alongside the Sierra Madre, delivering essential supplies to the small contingent of soldiers stationed there under challenging conditions.

This year’s missions, including the first on 24 January, have proceeded smoothly, as have several operations in 2024, conducted on 27 July, 27 September, 15 November, and 12 December. The absence of harassment during these recent efforts may hint at a tentative de-escalation, following a provisional understanding reached between Manila and Beijing in January 2025 during bilateral consultations in Xiamen, China. While details of the agreement remain limited, it reportedly aims to manage interactions during resupply missions to Ayungin Shoal, reducing the risk of direct conflict.

However, the history of hostility in the region suggests that such calm may be fleeting. The June 2024 incident, during which Chinese personnel allegedly wielded bolos, knives, and spears, and deployed tear gas and high-powered strobe lights, remains a stark reminder of the potential for escalation. The injury of a Philippine Navy sailor during that encounter drew international condemnation and heightened calls for a diplomatic resolution to the maritime dispute.

The Broader South China Sea Dispute

The South China Sea, a vital waterway through which trillions of dollars in global trade pass annually, is a geopolitical hotspot involving multiple claimants, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. Beijing’s assertion of sovereignty over nearly the entire region, often referred to as the “nine-dash line,” relies on historical maps and claims that were invalidated by the 2016 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. The tribunal, acting under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), affirmed the Philippines’ rights to its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), within which Ayungin Shoal lies.

Despite the legal clarity provided by the ruling, China has maintained its presence in the disputed waters, constructing artificial islands, deploying military assets, and frequently shadowing or blocking vessels from neighbouring countries. For the Philippines, the BRP Sierra Madre serves as a symbol of resistance—a physical marker of its claim to the shoal, even as the ship deteriorates under the harsh maritime environment.

Manila’s resupply missions are not merely logistical exercises; they are acts of defiance against Beijing’s attempts to assert de facto control over the area. The operations are critical to sustaining the small garrison at Ayungin, ensuring that the Philippines maintains a continuous presence in its EEZ. Yet each mission carries the risk of confrontation, as Chinese vessels often interpret these actions as provocations.

Regional and International Implications

The relative success of the recent resupply missions raises questions about the future of Philippines-China relations and the broader dynamics of the South China Sea. The provisional understanding reached in Xiamen could signal a willingness from both sides to avoid direct clashes, at least temporarily. However, analysts caution that such arrangements are unlikely to address the underlying territorial disputes or alter Beijing’s long-term strategy in the region.

If sustained, this period of calm could provide an opportunity for dialogue, potentially involving other ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members who have their own stakes in the South China Sea. The Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has sought to balance its approach, strengthening security ties with allies like the United States and Japan while engaging in diplomatic efforts with China. Joint military exercises with the US, including the annual Balikatan drills, have been expanded in recent years, with a focus on maritime security in the West Philippine Sea.

At the same time, Manila has pushed for a binding Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, a framework long under negotiation within ASEAN to manage disputes and prevent escalation. Progress on the COC remains slow, hampered by differing priorities among member states and China’s reluctance to accept constraints on its actions.

For now, the absence of interference during the latest resupply mission offers a glimmer of hope, though it does little to resolve the fundamental tensions. If confirmed, the provisional understanding may serve as a stopgap measure to prevent further violence, but without broader international support and enforcement mechanisms, its impact remains uncertain.

Domestic Perspectives and Challenges

Within the Philippines, the government’s handling of the South China Sea issue remains a contentious topic. Public sentiment often oscillates between calls for a hardline stance against China and pragmatic appeals for economic cooperation, given Beijing’s role as a major trading partner. The Marcos administration has sought to project strength in defending national interests, particularly after the violent June 2024 incident galvanised domestic support for a firmer policy in the West Philippine Sea.

Yet the challenges of maintaining a military presence at Ayungin Shoal are immense. The BRP Sierra Madre, originally a US Navy vessel transferred to the Philippines, is in a state of disrepair, battered by typhoons and saltwater corrosion. Sustaining the outpost requires not only regular resupply missions but also significant resources and political will, especially as each operation risks sparking a diplomatic or military crisis.

Fishermen from Palawan, who rely on the waters near Ayungin for their livelihoods, have also been caught in the crossfire of the dispute. Reports of harassment by Chinese vessels have led to economic losses and heightened local frustration, further complicating Manila’s efforts to balance security and economic concerns.

A Fragile Status Quo

The successful completion of the 4 March resupply mission to Ayungin Shoal is a small but significant victory for the Philippines in its ongoing struggle to assert its maritime rights. It demonstrates the AFP’s operational resilience and the government’s commitment to maintaining a presence in the West Philippine Sea, even under the shadow of China’s superior naval capabilities.

However, the underlying issues remain unresolved. The South China Sea dispute is not merely a bilateral issue between Manila and Beijing but a regional and global challenge that tests the limits of international law and diplomacy. While the provisional understanding reached in January 2025 may reduce the immediate risk of confrontation, it is unlikely to alter the strategic calculus of either side.

As the Philippines continues to navigate this complex landscape, the international community watches closely. The stakes extend beyond territorial control to the principles of freedom of navigation and the rules-based order that underpin global trade and security. For now, each resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre serves as a reminder of the delicate balance between conflict and cooperation in one of the world’s most contested waterways.