Thailand’s Economic Optimism: PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra Targets Growth Beyond 3% in 2025

Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has expressed strong confidence that the nation’s economy could surpass the Ministry of Finance’s projected growth rate of 3% for 2025. Speaking after a key meeting of the Subcommittee on Economic Stimulus on 10 March, she highlighted the pivotal role of public-private sector collaboration in driving this ambitious target. With initiatives such as the digital wallet handout scheme and a renewed focus on tourism and agricultural exports, the government is laying the groundwork for both immediate economic boosts and long-term sustainability.

The announcement comes at a time when Thailand is seeking to recover from the lingering effects of global economic slowdowns and domestic challenges. Paetongtarn’s optimism, shared via social media and reinforced through official statements, signals a proactive approach to fiscal policy, with an emphasis on innovation and inclusivity. However, as the government rolls out these plans, questions remain about their feasibility and the potential risks of overextending fiscal resources.

A Collaborative Push for Growth

At the heart of Paetongtarn’s strategy is a commitment to fostering cooperation between government agencies and private enterprises. During the subcommittee meeting, various agencies presented a range of economic stimulus initiatives designed to adhere to legal frameworks while addressing both short-term needs and long-term goals. “Today’s meeting served as a platform for collaborative discussions,” Paetongtarn stated, as quoted by The Nation on 11 March 2025. She emphasized that these initiatives aim to “boost the economy in the short term and establish a sustainable long-term structure.”

One of the flagship proposals discussed was the digital wallet handout, a scheme targeting 2.7 million registered youths aged 16-20. The programme, which requires recipients to spend funds via the “Tang Rat” app within their registered districts, is intended to stimulate domestic consumption and bolster the digital economy. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira, alongside Deputy Finance Ministers Julapun Amornvivat and Paophum Rojanasakul, underscored the benefits of this digital distribution system. They argued that it would enhance financial oversight, reduce risks associated with previous aid programmes, and provide valuable data for future policymaking.

The government is also exploring the possibility of expanding eligibility to older age groups after further evaluation. With cash disbursements expected in late Q2 or early Q3 of 2025, officials have promised continuous assessments to ensure fiscal discipline. For those without mobile access, additional support mechanisms will be provided, though specifics remain unclear at this stage.

Tourism and Exports as Economic Pillars

Beyond domestic stimulus, Paetongtarn pointed to tourism as a critical driver of economic growth. Having recently attended ITB Berlin, one of the world’s leading travel trade shows, she highlighted the potential for expanding Thailand’s agricultural exports to European markets. The event also provided insights into strengthening collaboration between government ministries to promote Thailand as a premier tourist destination.

Tourism has long been a cornerstone of Thailand’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. The sector was severely hit by the global pandemic, but recent years have seen a steady recovery, with millions of international visitors returning to the kingdom’s beaches, temples, and bustling cities. If the government can capitalise on events like ITB Berlin to forge new partnerships and market Thailand effectively, the sector could play a pivotal role in exceeding the 3% growth forecast. However, challenges such as global economic uncertainty and regional competition remain, and success is far from guaranteed.

Agricultural exports, another focus area, offer additional opportunities. Thailand is a major exporter of rice, rubber, and tropical fruits, and expanding into European markets could provide a much-needed boost to rural economies. Yet, this too comes with hurdles, including stringent EU regulations and the need for improved supply chain infrastructure. While Paetongtarn’s vision is promising, the practicalities of implementation will be key to determining its impact.

Digital Wallet: Innovation or Risk?

The digital wallet initiative has generated significant buzz, both for its innovative approach and the potential risks it entails. By targeting young people and mandating the use of a dedicated app, the government hopes to encourage digital adoption while stimulating local economies. The requirement to spend within registered districts is designed to ensure that funds directly benefit smaller communities, rather than being funnelled into larger urban centres or multinational corporations.

Officials have touted the system’s ability to streamline fund allocation and enhance transparency. Unlike past cash handout schemes, which were often plagued by inefficiencies and allegations of mismanagement, the digital wallet promises tighter control over distribution. Moreover, the data collected through the app could inform future economic policies, providing insights into spending patterns and regional disparities.

However, the scheme is not without controversy. On Thai social media platforms, working-age users have expressed frustration over what some perceive as the third phase of handouts, raising concerns about fairness and accessibility. Critics argue that the focus on younger demographics may exclude other vulnerable groups, while the reliance on digital infrastructure could alienate those without smartphones or reliable internet access. The government’s pledge to assist such individuals is a step in the right direction, but the lack of detailed plans has fuelled scepticism.

There are also broader concerns about the fiscal implications of such a large-scale programme. With disbursements expected to roll out over the coming months, analysts warn that the initiative could strain public finances if not carefully managed. While the government has committed to ongoing assessments of fiscal discipline, the balance between stimulating growth and maintaining economic stability will be a delicate one. If mismanaged, the programme could exacerbate inflationary pressures or divert resources from other critical areas such as healthcare or infrastructure.

Public Sentiment and Political Stakes

Paetongtarn’s economic agenda is unfolding against a backdrop of heightened public scrutiny. As the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, her leadership is often viewed through the lens of her family’s political legacy, which remains a polarising topic in Thailand. While her supporters praise her focus on innovation and economic recovery, detractors question whether her policies are sufficiently inclusive or sustainable.

The digital wallet scheme, in particular, has sparked a lively debate among Thai netizens. Many young people welcome the prospect of financial support, especially in the face of rising living costs and limited job opportunities. However, others express frustration over perceived inequities in the programme’s design, with some calling for broader eligibility criteria. The government’s response to these concerns will likely shape public perception of Paetongtarn’s administration in the months ahead.

Politically, the stakes are high. Economic performance is a key metric by which governments are judged, and failure to deliver on growth promises could undermine Paetongtarn’s credibility. Conversely, if her initiatives succeed in pushing growth beyond the 3% target, it could solidify her position as a forward-thinking leader capable of navigating Thailand through uncertain times. With elections on the horizon in the coming years, the outcome of these policies could have far-reaching implications for her party’s prospects.

Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities

As Thailand charts its economic course for 2025, the interplay between innovation, fiscal responsibility, and public sentiment will be critical. Paetongtarn’s emphasis on public-private cooperation offers a promising framework for growth, but translating this into tangible results will require careful planning and execution. The digital wallet initiative, while ambitious, must address concerns about accessibility and equity to avoid alienating significant portions of the population.

Tourism and agricultural exports present additional avenues for economic expansion, but their success hinges on external factors such as global demand and regional competition. If Thailand can position itself as a leader in these sectors, the benefits could be substantial. However, as with any speculative outlook, these projections remain unconfirmed, and there is no guarantee that the anticipated growth will materialise.

For now, Paetongtarn’s confidence is a rallying cry for a nation eager to reclaim its economic momentum. Whether her vision translates into reality will depend on the government’s ability to balance short-term stimulus with long-term sustainability—a challenge that will test both her leadership and the resilience of Thailand’s economy. As the rollout of these initiatives progresses, all eyes will be on Bangkok to see if the kingdom can indeed exceed the 3% growth forecast and set a new benchmark for recovery in the region.