Marcos Jr’s Strategic Maneuvers: A New Era of Power in the Philippines

In a stunning display of political maneuvering, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has reshaped the country’s political landscape, orchestrating the rapid impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte and facilitating the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte for transfer to the International Criminal Court (ICC). These seismic events, unfolding in quick succession over the past weeks, have prompted a profound reassessment of Marcos’ leadership style, raising questions about whether he possesses the same strategic acumen as his father, Ferdinand Marcos Sr, albeit with a more subtle, modern approach.

The developments mark a turning point for Marcos, previously perceived as cautious and conflict-averse, particularly in dealing with the powerful Duterte faction. Critics and analysts alike had often contrasted him unfavorably with his father, whose iron-fisted rule during the martial law era defined authoritarian control. Yet, the recent actions against the Dutertes suggest a calculated patience and an ability to strike decisively when the moment is ripe, revealing a leader who may have been underestimated.

A Calculated Power Play

The impeachment of Sara Duterte by the House of Representatives in February was a masterstroke of legislative strategy. The move, executed with remarkable speed, demonstrated that Marcos had secured the necessary political capital and legislative support to dismantle a key pillar of the Duterte dynasty. The symbolic signatures of Sandro Marcos as the first signer and Martin Romualdez as the last on the impeachment charge underscored a deliberate, almost theatrical assertion of Marcos’ influence over Congress.

Hot on the heels of Sara’s political downfall came the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte, a former president whose controversial tenure was marked by a brutal war on drugs that drew international condemnation. His transfer to the ICC last week, following years of scrutiny over alleged crimes against humanity, was framed as an Interpol operation, allowing Marcos to distance himself from direct responsibility while ensuring the outcome aligned with his apparent objectives.

These dual blows have left the once-formidable Duterte faction fragmented and discredited. Where direct confrontation might have risked alienating Duterte loyalists—a significant voting bloc ahead of the 2025 midterm elections—Marcos opted for a strategy of gradual erosion. By withholding key support from Sara Duterte, such as denying her the defense portfolio and wresting control of the House speakership, Marcos systematically weakened her position. Meanwhile, the quad committee investigations exposed her vulnerabilities, with public approval ratings plummeting as she struggled to maintain composure under pressure.

Rodrigo Duterte, known for his brash and unapologetic style, played into Marcos’ hands by making self-incriminating statements under the weight of ICC scrutiny. The timing of his arrest, executed with precision and culminating in his transfer to The Hague within a mere 37 hours, echoes the surprise tactics employed by Marcos Sr during the declaration of martial law in 1972. While the elder Marcos relied on overt military power to neutralize opponents, Marcos Jr’s approach—leveraging international mechanisms and existing institutions—presents a facade of democratic process while achieving similar ends.

A Departure from the Iron Fist

Despite the parallels, significant differences distinguish Marcos Jr from his father. Ferdinand Marcos Sr ruled with unapologetic authoritarianism, declaring martial law and weaponizing state machinery to crush dissent. Opponents like Ninoy Aquino were co-opted, exiled, or eliminated, often with brutal efficiency. In contrast, Marcos Jr operates within the bounds of democratic institutions, albeit with a keen eye for exploiting them to his advantage. His reluctance to engage in overt oppression suggests a nuanced understanding of contemporary political optics, where public perception and international opinion carry significant weight.

This subtlety is evident in how Marcos has managed the Duterte fallout. By allowing internal divisions within the Duterte coalition to fester, he avoided the appearance of a personal vendetta. The framing of Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest as an international legal matter rather than a domestic purge further insulates Marcos from accusations of overreach or surrendering Philippine sovereignty—a sensitive issue in a country with a history of foreign intervention.

Yet, this calculated restraint may also reflect a pragmatic concern for political survival. The Duterte base remains a potent force, particularly in regions like Davao, where loyalty to the family runs deep. A premature confrontation could have galvanized opposition and jeopardized Marcos’ position ahead of the 2025 elections. Instead, by biding his time, Marcos ensured that when he acted, the Dutertes were already on shaky ground, their influence diminished by internal strife and public disillusionment.

Navigating the Post-Duterte Landscape

With the Duterte bloc now leaderless and reeling, Marcos stands in a position of unprecedented strength. The 2025 midterm elections, once a potential battleground between rival factions, are likely to unfold under a Marcos-dominated narrative. Having neutralized a major political threat without declaring open war, Marcos has crafted a delicate balance of power consolidation and plausible deniability.

However, the road ahead is not without challenges. The Duterte loyalists, though fragmented, could still rally around a new figure or cause, particularly if Marcos’ administration fails to deliver on key issues like economic reform or corruption. Public sentiment, as reflected in online discussions and local media, remains divided—some view Marcos as a shrewd strategist finally bringing accountability to the Dutertes, while others see a dangerous consolidation of power reminiscent of his father’s era.

Moreover, the international dimension of Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC case introduces variables beyond Marcos’ direct control. While the arrest bolsters Marcos’ image as a leader aligned with global norms on human rights, any perception of capitulation to foreign pressure could stoke nationalist backlash. Balancing these domestic and international pressures will test Marcos’ political instincts in the months to come.

A Legacy in the Making?

The question of whether Marcos Jr matches the strategic adeptness of his father remains open, but recent events suggest he is carving out a distinct legacy. Unlike Marcos Sr, whose rule was defined by overt control and fear, Marcos Jr appears to favor patience and subterfuge, achieving his goals through incremental moves rather than sweeping declarations. The checkmate against the Dutertes—executed with precision and minimal direct confrontation—reveals a leader who plays the long game with a keen eye for timing.

Yet, power consolidation is only half the battle. How Marcos manages the post-Duterte political landscape will determine whether his strategies yield lasting stability or sow the seeds of future unrest. If he can navigate the delicate balance of maintaining democratic appearances while securing his grip on power, he may well redefine the Marcos name for a new generation. For now, one thing is clear: Ferdinand Marcos Jr is no longer the reluctant figure many assumed him to be, but a cunning tactician who has decisively altered the course of Philippine politics.