Philippines Faces Rising Heat Risks as Climate Change Intensifies, Study Finds

The Philippines has emerged as one of the most affected countries in Asia by unusual heat linked to climate change, ranking third in the region for the number of days with extreme temperatures over the past three months, according to a new report by Climate Central, a nonprofit research group. The study, released on Wednesday, reveals that nearly 200,000 Filipinos have been exposed to heightened heat-related health risks during this period, underscoring the urgent impact of global warming on vulnerable populations.

The report, which analyzed temperature data across 220 countries and territories, found that the Philippines experienced 74 days of temperatures at or above Climate Shift Index (CSI) level 2—a metric developed by Climate Central to measure the influence of climate change on local weather. At this level, daily temperatures are deemed highly likely to be driven by human-induced climate change, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and methane gas. For Manila, one of the world’s megacities with a population exceeding 10 million, the situation is particularly acute, with the capital enduring 69 days of such extreme heat, ranking third among global megacities.

A Region Under Strain

Across Asia, the effects of climate change are stark. The Climate Central study notes that 10 out of 51 Asian countries recorded over 30 days of temperatures at CSI level 2 or higher between December 2024 and February 2025. Brunei Darussalam topped the list with 83 days, followed by the Maldives with 81. The Philippines placed third, just ahead of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste, each with 72 days. In total, nearly 554 million people across the continent experienced prolonged exposure to climate-driven heat for at least a third of the season, with over 45 million facing at least 30 “risky heat” days—defined as temperatures hotter than 90% of those recorded locally between 1991 and 2020.

In the Philippines, the human toll is evident. With a population of 116 million, the country saw almost 200,000 individuals directly exposed to these extreme conditions. The health risks associated with such heat are significant, as temperatures above local thresholds can exacerbate conditions like heatstroke, dehydration, and cardiovascular strain, particularly among the elderly, children, and outdoor workers. Images from Manila earlier this month captured the severity of the situation, with parents using school bags to shield children from the sun as classes were suspended due to unbearable heat.

Manila Among Hardest-Hit Megacities

Manila’s inclusion among the 11 megacities worldwide most affected by climate-driven heat highlights the intersection of urban density and environmental vulnerability. The city recorded 69 days of extreme temperatures at CSI level 2 or higher, trailing only Lagos, Nigeria (89 days), and Tamil Nadu, India (81 days). High population density, limited green spaces, and the urban heat island effect—where concrete and asphalt absorb and re-emit heat—compound the risks for residents. For many in Manila, access to cooling resources like air conditioning remains a luxury, leaving large swathes of the population exposed.

The broader implications for the Philippines are equally concerning. The country also ranked eighth in Asia for “risky heat” days directly attributable to climate change, with two such days recorded in the last three months. Timor-Leste led the region with 22 days, followed by Indonesia with 16. These risky heat days are a critical indicator of health threats, as sustained high temperatures push human endurance to its limits and strain public health systems.

Climate Change as a Global Driver

The Climate Central report paints a grim picture of a world increasingly shaped by human-induced climate change. “During the past three months, the effects of human-induced climate change were evident in most regions of the world, particularly in the form of extreme heat,” the study states. The burning of fossil fuels remains the primary driver, releasing greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere and disrupt traditional weather patterns. For countries like the Philippines, already prone to natural disasters such as typhoons and flooding, the added burden of extreme heat represents a compounding threat.

The methodology behind the report is robust, drawing on data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and population estimates from sources like Encyclopedia Britannica and NASA’s Gridded Population of the World collection. The CSI system itself offers a granular look at how climate change influences daily temperatures, providing a clear link between global emissions and local impacts. For policymakers, this data is a call to action, highlighting the need for both mitigation—reducing emissions—and adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.

Health and Economic Impacts

The immediate health risks of extreme heat are only part of the story. In the Philippines, where agriculture and outdoor labor form significant parts of the economy, prolonged high temperatures can disrupt livelihoods. Farmers face reduced crop yields as heat stresses plants, while construction workers and street vendors endure dangerous conditions with little reprieve. The suspension of classes, as seen in Manila earlier this month, also disrupts education and places additional burdens on families who must arrange childcare or forgo income to stay home.

If unaddressed, these impacts could deepen existing inequalities. Poorer communities, often living in densely packed urban areas or rural regions with limited infrastructure, are least equipped to cope with rising temperatures. The potential for increased healthcare costs, lost productivity, and strained public services looms large, particularly if heatwaves become more frequent or severe—a scenario that scientists warn is likely if global emissions are not curbed.

Looking Ahead: Adaptation and Mitigation

The Philippines is no stranger to the challenges of climate change, having long battled typhoons, rising sea levels, and other environmental threats. Yet the growing prevalence of extreme heat adds a new dimension to the crisis. Local governments have taken steps in recent years to address heat risks, including public awareness campaigns, the establishment of cooling centers in some urban areas, and heatwave early warning systems. However, the scale of the challenge demands greater investment and coordination, both at the national and international levels.

Globally, the Climate Central report serves as a reminder of the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels. For the Philippines, a developing nation with limited resources, achieving this transition is fraught with challenges. While renewable energy sources like solar and wind are gaining traction, coal remains a significant part of the energy mix. International support, through climate finance and technology transfer, will be critical to enabling the country to reduce its carbon footprint without sacrificing economic growth.

Speculative projections suggest that, if global temperatures continue to rise, the Philippines could face even more frequent and intense heatwaves in the coming decades. Such scenarios, while not yet confirmed, underscore the importance of proactive measures. As the report notes, the link between climate change and extreme heat is already clear—delaying action will only increase the human and economic costs.

A Call for Collective Action

The findings from Climate Central are a sobering wake-up call for the Philippines and the wider Asian region. With nearly 200,000 Filipinos exposed to heightened heat risks in just three months, the country stands at a critical juncture. Addressing the immediate needs of affected communities—through access to cooling, healthcare, and public education—must go hand in hand with long-term strategies to combat climate change.

For now, the people of Manila and beyond continue to endure the scorching reality of a warming world. As images of children shielding themselves from the sun remind us, the stakes could not be higher. The question remains whether governments, both local and global, will act with the urgency this crisis demands.