Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto is reportedly contemplating a significant Cabinet reshuffle in the coming months, driven by dissatisfaction with certain ministers’ performance and mounting political pressure from coalition partners. This potential overhaul comes at a critical juncture, as the country grapples with disappointing economic growth forecasts for the first quarter of 2025 and a weakening rupiah, raising concerns about the administration’s ability to deliver on ambitious campaign promises.
Pressure Mounts for Change
Just six months after his inauguration in October 2024, President Prabowo faces growing calls from within his inner circle to address underperformance in his administration. According to senior government officials speaking anonymously to regional media, there is a push to remove what some describe as “weak elements” in the Cabinet to accelerate the fulfillment of key pledges, including an audacious target of 8 percent annual economic growth by the end of his term in 2029. These sources indicate that the President’s team believes a reshuffle could inject fresh momentum into a government struggling to communicate its agenda effectively to the public.
Among those reportedly at risk of being replaced is Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto, whose leadership has come under scrutiny. One official suggested a lack of cohesion between Airlangga and the ministers under his purview, which include key figures in trade, energy, and investment. While no final decisions have been confirmed, speculation is rife that Airlangga could be reassigned to a prominent diplomatic role if removed from his current post. Other ministers, such as Village Development Minister Yandri Susanto and Cooperative Affairs Minister Budi Arie Setiadi, have also been flagged for perceived shortcomings in public communication and delivery. 
Economic Headwinds Fuel Urgency
The backdrop to this potential reshuffle is an economy under strain. Indonesia’s growth forecast for the first three months of 2025 is projected to fall between 4.5 and 4.9 percent, a notable decline from the 5.11 percent recorded in the same period of 2024, and well below the historical average of around 5 percent over the past decade. Official figures from the national statistics agency are expected in early May, but the preliminary estimates have already sparked concern within government circles.
The weakening rupiah, which has hit its lowest level against the US dollar since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, alongside a sharp drop in Indonesian stock indices to decade-low levels, has compounded the economic challenges. Analysts point to declining tax revenues and softer consumer spending as key contributors, particularly as the administration rolls out populist programs requiring substantial funding. For instance, initiatives like direct allowance transfers to regional public school teachers—launched by Prabowo in March 2025 at the Primary and Secondary Education Ministry in Jakarta—reflect the scale of public spending commitments that must be balanced against fiscal constraints.
The economic downturn has heightened the stakes for Prabowo’s administration, which came to power on a platform of transformative growth. With internal forecasts far short of the 8 percent growth target, questions are mounting over whether the current Cabinet possesses the expertise and coordination needed to navigate these turbulent waters. Some observers argue that the inclusion of more technocrats, rather than political allies, could provide the necessary policy depth—a sentiment echoed by calls for experienced figures from previous administrations to step into key roles.
Political Dynamics at Play
While economic concerns are a driving factor, political considerations appear to weigh heavily in the reshuffle discussions. Prabowo’s administration was initially formed with an emphasis on coalition stability, drawing ministers from allied parties within the ruling Gerindra-led coalition. However, this approach has led to tensions, with some political elites from Gerindra and other supporting parties reportedly frustrated at being excluded from Cabinet positions. Political communications expert Dr. Kunto Adi Wibowo of Padjadjaran University in West Java noted that these internal pressures could be a significant motivator for changes, potentially overshadowing performance-based critiques.
Airlangga Hartarto’s position, in particular, seems influenced by political undercurrents. Having stepped down as chairman of the influential Golkar party in August 2024 following a leadership struggle, his clout within the coalition has diminished. Dr. Kunto suggested that any move to replace Airlangga would likely stem more from political maneuvering than from evaluations of his work as Coordinating Minister. This view contrasts with the broader public sentiment, as expressed by Adi Prayitno, executive director of the Jakarta-based think tank Indonesian Political Parameter, who believes Indonesians would welcome a reshuffle targeting underperformers or those misaligned with the President’s vision.
The structure of Indonesia’s Cabinet adds another layer of complexity. With seven coordinating ministers—often party leaders or figures of significant political influence—and 41 ministers working under them, the balance between political loyalty and technocratic competence is delicate. Notable coordinating ministers include Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (Infrastructure) and Zulkifli Hasan (Food), both chairmen of coalition parties, underscoring the deep ties between Cabinet roles and political alliances. Any reshuffle would need to navigate these relationships carefully to avoid destabilizing the ruling coalition.
Public Perception and Communication Gaps
A recurring critique of the current administration is its struggle to effectively convey progress to the Indonesian public. Dr. Kunto highlighted that Prabowo has expressed frustration over how some subordinates communicate government programs, leaving many citizens feeling disconnected from the administration’s efforts. This perception gap is particularly damaging for a government elected on bold promises, as it risks eroding public trust at a time when economic challenges are already testing patience.
The potential inclusion of seasoned technocrats, such as former finance and trade ministers from past administrations, could signal a shift toward prioritizing expertise over political expediency. Such appointments might bolster confidence among investors and the public alike, particularly if they bring proven strategies to address currency depreciation and stimulate growth. However, without confirmation from official channels—neither the Presidential Communications Office nor the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs has commented on the rumors—these possibilities remain speculative.
Broader Implications for Indonesia’s Future
As discussions of a Cabinet reshuffle gain traction, the broader implications for Indonesia’s political and economic trajectory are coming into focus. A reshuffle could serve as a litmus test for Prabowo’s leadership style—whether he prioritizes coalition harmony or opts for a bolder, performance-driven approach. It also raises questions about the feasibility of his long-term goals, particularly the 8 percent growth target, which many economists view as ambitious given structural challenges like declining revenues and global economic uncertainty.
For now, the Indonesian public and international observers alike are left to await official announcements, with the national statistics agency’s upcoming growth figures likely to intensify scrutiny of the administration’s economic stewardship. If a reshuffle does materialize, its impact will depend not only on who is replaced but also on how effectively new appointees can address the dual pressures of economic recovery and political cohesion.
As Indonesia navigates this uncertain period, the question remains whether President Prabowo can recalibrate his administration to meet the high expectations set during his campaign. With economic indicators flashing warning signs and political tensions simmering beneath the surface, the coming months could prove pivotal for the nation’s direction.
